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PMI reaches a 20-month low

  • A small decrease in PMI as expected
  • Continued weakness in the service sector
  • France surpasses Germany for the first time since 2012

Read why here

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø

Economist

Denmark

ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Latest analyses

2016-09-23

EMU Comment

2016-09-22

Morgenmelding Danmark

2016-09-19

Morgenmelding Danmark
Latest from Speakers´ corner

PMI data i fokus för dagen

Japans preliminära PMI för tillverkningsindustrin i september klättrade över 50 för första gången på 7 månader til 50.3 från 49.5

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Keywords: PMI, Japan

The chart of the day

Calendar

Fri, Sep 23
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
04:00 Japan Markit PMI Manufacturing September 0.2 49.5 50.3
06:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index July 0.7 0.7
08:45 France GDP Q2 0.01/1.4 0.7 / 1.4 -0.1 / 1.3
09:00 France Markit PMI Manufacturing September 48.5 48.3 49.5
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Manufacturing September 53.1 53.6 54.3
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite September 52.8 52.9 52.6
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Manufacturing September 51.5 51.7 52.6
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Services September 52.8 52.8 52.1
15:45 US Markit PMI Manufacturing September 52.0 52 51.4
Mon, Sep 26
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland Retail Trade ex auto August -1.1
10:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate September 105.2 106.2
10:00 Germany IFO - Expectations September 100.0 100.1
10:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment September 113.0 112.8
16:00 US New Home Sales August 597K 654K
16:00 Eurozone ECB´s Draghi speaks at European Parliament
16:30 US Dallas Fed Man. Activity Index September -3.0 -6.2
Tue, Sep 27
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland Consumer Confidence September 15.7
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales, sa August 0.4/ 0.6/ -0.8
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales August /3.7 /3.7 / 1.1
10:00 Sweden Riksbank´s Ingves and Jansson speaks
15:00 US House prices S&P/Case-Shiller July -0.05/5.0 -0.1 / 5.1
15:45 US Markit PMI Services flash September 51.0 50.9
16:00 US Consumer Confidence September 98.5 101.1
16:00 US Richmond Fed Man. Activity Index September -2 -11
Wed, Sep 28
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland House Prices August 0.2 / -0.4
08:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey September 10.2 10.2
08:30 Norway Norges Bank Olsen speaks at conference
08:45 France Consumer Confidence (INSEE) September 97 96.8
09:00 Sweden Economic Tendency Survey September 99.8 100
09:00 Sweden Consumer Confidence (CCI) September 95.1 94.5 93.9
09:00 Sweden Manufacturing Confidence September 98.7 97.5 97.7
14:30 US Durable Goods Orders August -1.1 4.4 / -3.4
14:30 US Capital Goods Shipment Nondef ex Air August -0.5
16:00 US Fed´s Yellen testifies before House Panel on Banks supervision and regulation
Thu, Sep 29
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
01:50 Japan Retail Sales August /-1.7 / -0.2
09:00 Denmark Industrial Confidence Indicator September -7
09:00 Denmark Unemployment August 4.2 4.2
09:00 Denmark Unemployment, LFS 6.2 6.2
10:00 Germany Unemployment Rate, sa September 6.1 6.1
11:00 Eurozone Industrial Confidence Indicator September -4.3 -4.4
11:00 Eurozone Business Confidence Indicator September 0.05 0
11:00 Eurozone Service Confidence Indicator September 10.0 10
11:00 Eurozone Economic Confidence September 103.5 103.5
14:00 Germany HICP preliminary September 0.0/0.5 -0.1 / 0.3
14:00 Germany CPI preliminary September 0.0/0.6 0 / 0.4
14:30 US GDP annualized, Q2 1.3 1.1
14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W38 252K
16:00 US Pending Home Sales, sa August -0.1 1.3
22:00 US Fed´s Yellen speaks in forum for minority bankers
Fri, Sep 30
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
01:05 UK Consumer Confidence September -5 -7
01:30 Japan CPI Core August /-0.5 -0.1 / 0.3
03:45 China Caixin PMI Manufacturing August 50.1 50
08:00 Germany Retail Sales August /1.9 / -1.5
08:00 Norway Credit Indicator Growth August 4.9 5.0 5
08:45 France HICP September -0.3/0.5 0.3 / 0.4
09:00 Denmark GDP Q2 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5
10:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (NAV) September 3.0 2.9 3.1
10:30 UK GDP April 0.6/2.2 0.6 / 2.2
11:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate, sa August 10.0 10.1
11:00 Eurozone HICP Flash y-o-y September /0.2 / 0.2
11:00 Italy HICP September /0.1 -0.1 / -0.1
11:00 Eurozone Core CPI y-o-y Sep 0.9
14:30 US PCE Deflator August 0.2/0.9 0 / 0.8
14:30 US PCE Core August 0.2/1.7 0.1 / 1.4
15:45 US Chicago ISM September 53.0 51.5
16:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment 90.1 89.8
Fri, Sep 23|
Mon, Sep 26|
Tue, Sep 27|
Wed, Sep 28|
Thu, Sep 29|
Fri, Sep 30
View the complete calendar

Latest publications in

The Week Ahead — September 26-30

Eurozone: Inflation stable for now
Sweden: August set to rebound after weakness in June and July; Sideways trend for Swedish sentiment
Norway: Some rebound in retail sales, following two negative months

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

EMU Comment — PMI reaches a 20-month low

  1. A small decrease in PMI as expected
  2. Continued weakness in the service sector
  3. France surpasses Germany for the first time since 2012

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment Norway — Norges Bank on hold; signals a slight probability for a rate cut ahead

  1. Norges Bank leaves its policy rate unchanged, at 0.50 percent
  2. In line with our expectation and the median of market expectations
  3. Norges Bank signals a slight probability for a rate cut ahead, as we expected

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Macro Comment US — Fed signalled a rate increase in December

The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate target range at 0.25-0.5 percent at its September interest rate meeting. Three voting members dissented. They preferred a tightening at this meeting. In our view, the case for a rate increase in December has strengthened markedly. Thus, we stick to our forecast of an increase in December.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — Unexpected jump in LFS unemployment rate

  1. LFS unemployment at 5.0 percent in July, higher than expected
  2. Second month of positive employment growth, but the labour force is expanding faster

Halfdan Grangård, Economist | hagr11@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Finland — Unemployment rate decreased to 8.7 percent in August

  1. Unemployment rate continues to fall at a steady pace
  2. Labour force stable despite employment growth
  3. Retirements are impacting labour market development

Janne Ronkanen, Economist | jaro06@handelsbanken.se