Research


Choose type:


No smooth sailing in sight

  • US: In for a boom/bust episode
  • Eurozone: A tall order for the ECB
  • Nordics: Growing confidence

Read why in Monthly Macro Update, new window. 

Ann Öberg

Chief Economist

Global Research

anob04@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2017-02-22

Monthly Macro Update

2017-01-25

Monthly Macro Update

2016-12-01

Monthly Macro Update
Latest from Speakers´ corner

Fastighetspriser i Kina

Kina: Fastighetspriser steg i 45 av Kinas 70 största städer i januari. Priserna föll i 20 städer. Myndigheter har vidtagit åtgärder för att undvika en bostadsbubbla

0 comments

Keywords: China

The chart of the day

Calendar

Fri, Feb 17
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
09:30 Sweden CPI January -0.7/1.5 0.5 / 1.7 -0.7 / 1.4
09:30 Sweden CPIF January -0.7/1.7 0.5 / 1.9 -0.7 / 1.6
09:30 Sweden CPIF ex energy January 0.5 / 1.3 -0.9 / 1.2
10:30 UK Retail Sales incl. Auto Fuel January 1.0/3.4 -2.1 / 4.1 -0.3 / 1.5
16:00 US Leading Index January 0.5 0.5 0.6
18:30 Sweden Riksbank´s af Jochnick speaks
Mon, Feb 20
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland CPI January 0.2 / 1 -0.6 / 0.9
09:00 Denmark Consumer Confidence February 4.5 4.8
12:00 Sweden Riksbank´s Skingsley speaks
16:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence advance February -4.9 -6.2
Tue, Feb 21
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
01:30 Japan Markit PMI Manufacturing February 52.7 53.5
08:00 Finland Unemployment Rate January 7.9 9.2
09:00 France Markit PMI Composite February 53.8 54.1 56.2
09:00 Sweden Riksbank´s Governor Ingves speaks
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Manufacturing February 56.1 56.4 57
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Composite February 54.9 54.8 56.1
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite February 54.3 54.0 54.4 56
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Manufacturing February 55.0 55.2 55.5
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Services February 53.7 53.7 55.6
Wed, Feb 22
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
02:30 China Building 70 Cities Price Index January 136.7 134.6
08:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (LFS) December 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.4
09:30 Sweden National debt office borrowing forecast
10:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate February 109.7 109.9 111
10:00 Germany IFO - Expectations February 103.0 103.2 104
10:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment February 116.7 116.9 118.4
10:30 UK GDP October 0.6/2.2 0.6 / 2 0.7 / 2
11:00 Eurozone HICP January /0.9 0.4 / 0.9 -1.7 / 0.9
11:00 Eurozone HICP ex energy and food Flash y-o-y January / 0.9 / 0.9
11:00 Eurozone CPI
16:00 US Existing Home Sales January 5.55M 5.5M 5.7M
20:00 US FOMC meeting minutes
Thu, Feb 23
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Germany GDP, sa Q4 0.4/ 0.1 / 1.7 0.4 / 1.8
08:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey February 10.2 10.2 10
08:00 Norway Oil and gas investment survey
14:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity Index January 0.2 0
Fri, Feb 24
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland Retail Trade ex auto January -0.7
09:00 Denmark Retail Sales December -1.7
09:00 Sweden Economic Tendency Survey February 111.1 112
09:00 Sweden Consumer Confidence (CCI) February 104.1 104.5 104.6
09:00 Sweden Manufacturing Confidence February 117.4 116.4 119.1
16:00 US New Home Sales January 575K 536K
16:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment 96.0 95.7
Fri, Feb 17|
Mon, Feb 20|
Tue, Feb 21|
Wed, Feb 22|
Thu, Feb 23|
Fri, Feb 24
View the complete calendar

Latest publications in

Fast Comment Norway — Outlook for petroleum investments broadly in line with Norge Bank

  1. Petroleum investments expected to decline by around 9-10 percent this year (real terms)
  2. Investments will decline during H1 2017; then the contractions should start to ease
  3. The outlook is broadly in line with Norges Bank's projections

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment US — FOMC minutes send mixed signals: increasing rates fairly soon and waiting longer

  1. Ample time for the FOMC to respond if inflationary pressures increased
  2. Time to start the discussion about a reduction of the Fed’s asset holdings
  3. Our view: Fed in a wait-and-see mode

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — Survey unemployment much lower than expected; sharp decline in labour participation

  1. LFS unemployment at 4.4 percent in December, down from 4.7 percent in Nov
  2. Much lower than expected; we and consensus had 4.7 percent
  3. Unemployment rate pulled down by a sharp decline in labour force participation

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Monthly Macro Update — No smooth sailing in sight

US: In for a boom/bust episode
Eurozone: A tall order for the ECB
Nordics: Growing confidence

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — Public sector borrowing on track to undershoot OBR estimate for 2016/17

  1. Public sector net borrowing of GBP 9.4bn in January; December revised to GBP 4.7bn from GBP 6.9bn
  2. Borrowing so far in financial year 2016/17 down 21.6% vs. previous financial year

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

EMU Comment — Surprise jump in February PMI

  1. Growth momentum building further in early 2017
  2. Increased optimism in service sector
  3. Supports a more hawkish ECB

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk