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Global Macro Forecast - Global tensions - but no recession

  • Challenging road ahead for the Nordics
  • Monetary policy will ease but not remove the pain
  • Markets will remain uneasy


Link to full report

Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

chny09@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2019-08-21

Global macro forecast

2019-08-21

Global konjunkturprognos

2018-11-22

Aktuell ekonomi

Morgonrapport

16 Sep

16 Sep

17 Sep

18 Sep

Igår

Latest publications in

UK Comment — Dovish BoE remains on hold

  1. Policy left unchanged; the decisions were unanimous
  2. Weaker global growth and Brexit uncertainty had led to further slowing of UK economy
  3. The BoE likely to remain on hold ahead

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Norges Bank hikes policy rate but lowers policy rate path

  1. Policy rate hiked to 1.5 percent, with a 40 percent probability of another hike next year
  2. Solid domestic economy, but weaker foreign factors and domestic inflation trend
  3. The policy rate has now finally reached its peak

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Sweden — Hesitant housing prices

  1. HOX Valueguard housing prices flat in August, as positive trend stalls
  2. Full-year 2019 still on track to register a price rise
  3. Upbeat mood in housing market remains, with stabilisation not yet affected by poor macroeconomic news

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — UK inflation easing markedly in August

  1. CPI inflation down to 1.7% and core CPI inflation down to 1.5 percent in August
  2. Inflation below market expectations, but roughly in line with the BoE forecast
  3. We expect the BoE to sit perfectly still tomorrow

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Sweden — Another labour market shock - unemployment now a concern for Riksbank and government

  1. Contrary to expectations and other signals from the labour market, unemployment rises after last month's shock
  2. Unemployment is trending uncomfortably high compared to Riksbank and government forecasts
  3. Adds to our view that the Riksbank will ultimately call off planned rate rises

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — Economy hurt by trade war

  1. Industrial sector particularly badly affected
  2. Slowdown set to continue

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk