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EMU PMI decreased

but point to solid start of 2017

  • First decline in four months
  • German service sector optimism stalled
  • PMI could have peaked for now

Read why here

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø

Economist

Denmark

ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

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2017-01-24

EMU Comment

2017-01-23

Morgenmelding Danmark

2017-01-20

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Keywords: USA, Sweden, Politics

The chart of the day

Calendar

Fri, Jan 20
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
00:00 US Presidential inauguration
02:00 US Fed´s Yellen speaks
03:00 China Fixed Asset Investments December 8.3 / 8.3 / 8.1
03:00 China Industrial Production December 6.1 6.2 6
03:00 China Retail Sales December 10.7 / 10.8 / 10.9
03:00 China GDP q-o-q Q4 1.7 1.8 1.7
03:00 China GDP yoy/ytd Q4 6.7 6.7 6.8
09:00 Denmark Retail Sales December 0.3 -1.7
10:30 UK Retail Sales incl. Auto Fuel December -0.1/7.2 -0.1 / 5.7 -2 / 4.3
Mon, Jan 23
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
09:00 Denmark Consumer Confidence January 0.5 -0.3 4.5
12:30 Eurozone ECB´s Draghi speaks
16:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence advance January -4.8 -6.0 -5.1 -4.9
Tue, Jan 24
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
01:30 Japan Markit PMI Manufacturing January 52.4 52.8
08:00 Finland Unemployment Rate December 8.1 7.9
09:00 France Markit PMI Manufacturing January 53.5 53.4
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Manufacturing January 55.4 55.6 56.5
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Composite January 55.4 55.2 54.7
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite January 54.5 54.1 54.4 54.3
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Manufacturing January 54.8 54.9 55.1
15:45 US Markit PMI Manufacturing January 54.5 54.3
16:00 US Existing Home Sales December 5.5M 5.6M
16:00 US Richmond Fed Man. Activity Index January 6 8
Wed, Jan 25
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
10:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate January 111.2 111
10:00 Germany IFO - Expectations January 105.9 105.6
10:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment January 117.0 116.6
13:00 Sweden The Riksbank Governor Ingves speaks
Thu, Jan 26
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey January 10.0 9.9
08:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (LFS) November 4.8 4.8 4.8
09:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate, sa December 6.8 6.8 6.8
09:30 Sweden Export December 9.4 / 13.1
09:30 Sweden Import December 8.3 / 8.5
09:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate December 6.3 6.2 6.2
10:30 UK GDP October 0.5/2.1 0.6 / 2.2
14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W3 246K 234K
14:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity Index December -0.3
15:45 US Markit PMI Services Biz Act January 54.2 53.9
16:00 US Leading Index December 0.5 0
16:00 US New Home Sales December 585K 592K
Fri, Jan 27
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
00:30 Japan CPI Core December 0 / 0.1
08:00 Finland House Prices December -1.1 / -0.1
08:00 Finland Retail Trade ex auto January 3.3
09:00 Sweden Economic Tendency Survey January 111.4 109.6 113.8
09:00 Sweden Consumer Confidence (CCI) January 103.5 103.6 103.2
09:00 Sweden Manufacturing Confidence January 115.0 112.4 121.1
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales, sa December -0.2 0.7 0.9
09:30 Sweden Household Lending December / 7.1
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales December /3.5 /4.2 / 3.7
14:30 US Durable Goods Orders December 2.7/ -4.5 / -1.6
14:30 US GDP annualized, Q4 2.1 3.5
14:30 US Capital Goods Shipment Nondef ex Air December 0.2
16:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment 98.1 98.1
Fri, Jan 20|
Mon, Jan 23|
Tue, Jan 24|
Wed, Jan 25|
Thu, Jan 26|
Fri, Jan 27
View the complete calendar

Latest publications in

UK Comment — UK Supreme Court rules Parliament must vote on triggering Article 50

  1. Court votes 8-3 for parliamentary decision on Article 50
  2. Opposition expected to try to amend May's bill

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Public sector borrowing well on track to meet OBR estimate

  1. Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) in December was GBP 6.9bn, down from November
  2. Borrowing is 14.3 percent lower than the same point last year

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

EMU Comment — PMI decreased but still points to solid start for 2017

  1. First decline in four months
  2. German service sector optimism stalled
  3. PMI could have peaked for now

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment Finland — Unemployment rate at 8.8 percent in 2016

  1. Unemployment rate at 8.6 percent in December
  2. Steadily improving employment
  3. Encouraging trend in 2016, but still much improvement needed

Janne Ronkanen, Economist | jaro06@handelsbanken.se

The Week Ahead — January 23–27

Eurozone: We expect confidence to show signs of waning
Sweden: Unemployment rate likely sideways at year-end 2016
              Retail sales growth should accelerate at year-end
              Extreme strength in December sentiment to moderate
Norway: Another stable survey unemployment reading

Anders Brunstedt, Economist | anbr42@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — Official GDP figures indicate growth picked up late last year

  1. Remarkably stable 2016
  2. Monthly figures show mixed signals for December
  3. Several headwinds moving into 2017

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk