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Core CPI up 0.2 percent in April

US core CPI up 0.2 percent in April as expected

Core CPI inflation likely to hover above 2 percent. We believe that core CPI inflation will hover above 2 percent, despite an unemployment rate of 8.1 percent. Our interpretation is...

US Retail Sales is expected to remain subdued in the future

We expect high household indebtedness, an impaired housing market and high unemployment to continue to weigh on household spending in the future. Retail sales projection...

Morgonrapport

Latest from Speakers´ corner

By Martin Enlund at Handelsbanken, Strategist | 15 may 2012 | 09:35

Svenska bostadspriser på väg upp

Bild 1 visar fattigmans säsongrensning av bostadspriser och tyder på en "normal" prisuppgång hittills i år. Med normal menas här snittprisutvecklingen under 2005-2011 (gul linje). Då var prisutvecklingen något för hög ur Riksbankens ögon. Röd linje visar utvecklingen under 2011 och blå linje utvecklingen under 2012.Bild 2 visar att SCB:s siffror snart kommer att visa prisuppgångar enligt min åsikt, detta då HOX-data leder SCB:s statistik med två månader.

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Keywords: Housing Market, Sweden

The chart of the day

Calendar

Mon, May 14
			Cons. fc	Our fc	Previous
09:30	Sweden	Industry capacity, Q1			87.5
10:00	Norway	Credit indicator growth, Mar	/7.0		/7.0
10:00	Norway	Norges Bank publishes Financial Stability 1/12
10:30	Spain	T-bill auction
11:00	EMU	Industrial production, Apr	0.4/-1.4		-1.5/0.8
	Italy	T-bond auction: 2015, 2020, 2022 and 2025 bonds
	Greece	T-bill auction
15:00	France	T-bill auction (BTF)
17:00	EMU	Eurogroup meeting

Tue, May 15
			Cons. fc	Our fc	Previous
	France	President Sarkozy term expires
	Japan	Consumer confidence, Apr	40,8		40.3
07:30	France	GDP prel, Q1			0.2/1.3
08:00	Germany	GDP prel, Q1	0.1/0.8		-0.2/
09:00	EMU	EcoFin meeting
09:30	Sweden	Total number of employees, Q1	2.8/		3.1/
10:00	Norway	Trade balance, Apr			46.4bn
10:30	UK	Total trade balance, Mar	-2.9bn		-3.396bn
	Sweden	Riksbank Dep Gov Wickman-Parak will hold a speech
10:45	Norway	Revised National Budget 2012
11:00	EMU	GDP advanced estimate, Q1	-0.2/-0.2		-0.3/0.7
	Germany	ZEW survey current conditions, May	39		40,7
11:30	Sweden	The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will hold a press conference at the Riksbank
14:30	US	CPI, Apr	0.1/2.4		0.3/2.7
		CPI core, Apr	0.2/2.3		0.2/2.3
		Retail sales, Apr	0.2/		0.8/
		Retail sales ex autos, Apr	0.2/		0,8
16:00		Business inventories, Mar	0.5/		0.6/
		NAHB Housing Market Index, May	26		25

Wed, May 16
			Cons. fc	Our fc	Previous
10:00	Italy	GDP preliminary, Q1	-0.7/-1.2		-0.7/-0.1
10:30	UK	ILO unemployment rate, Mar	8,4		8.3
11:00	EMU	CPI, Apr	0.5/2.6		1.3/
		CPI core, Apr	/1.5		/1.6
11:10	Sweden	SNDO T-bond auction: 2.5bn: 1054
11:30	UK	Bank of England Inflation Report
14:30	US	Housing starts, Apr	680k		654k
		Building permits, Apr	730k		764k
15:15		Industrial production, Apr	0.5/		0.0/
		Capacity utilication, Apr	79,0		78.6
16:30	US	EIA Weekly crude stocks
20:00		FOMC minutes

Thu, May 17
			Cons. fc	Our fc	Previous
		Market holiday - Ascension day
01:50	Japan	GDP preliminary, Q1	0.9/3.5		-0.2/-0.7
10:30	Spain	T-bond auction
11:00	France	T-bond auction (OAT/BTAN)
14:30	US	Jobless claims	365k		367k
16:00		Philadelphia Fed, May	10,0		8.5

Fri, May 18
			Cons. fc	Our fc	Previous
	US	G8 summit
08:00	Germany	PPI, Apr	0.3/2.6		0.6/3.3
14:30	Canada	CPI, Apr	0.3/1.9		0.4/1.9
		CPI core, Apr	0.2/1.9		0.3/1.9

View the complete calendar

Latest publications in

ENG SWE NOR FIN DAN

Published: 15 may 2012 | Fast Comment US | Keywords: Retail Sales

Fast Comment US — Retail sales roughly unchanged in April, as expected

Retail sales less autos up 0.1 percent vs. 0.8 percent in March
Non-store retailer sales up 1.1 percent
Motor vehicles and parts up 0.5 percent

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Published: 15 may 2012 | Fast Comment US | Keywords: Inflation

Fast Comment US — Core CPI up 0.2 percent in April as expected

Core CPI inflation remained at 2.3 percent in April
Headline CPI inflation declined to 2.3 percent, from 2.7 percent in March
Rising rental prices of housing remains an important factor

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Published: 14 may 2012 | Emerging Markets Calendar | Keywords: Calendar

Emerging Markets Calendar — Weakness in China becoming more apparent

Thomas Haugaard, Economist | thje01@handelsbanken.se

Published: 14 may 2012 | Macro Comment Emerging Markets | Keywords: Default

Macro Comment China — Weakness becoming more apparent

The weak April data move the bottom of the Chinese slowdown from Q1 to Q2. Although we expect some recovery in H2, structural bottlenecks could get in the way. Some further demand-side stimulation is likely to follow last week's 50bp cut in banks' reserve requirements; however, the main policy focus going forward will be on structural reforms, which we believe are badly needed.

Knut Anton Mork, Chief Economist Norway | knmo01@handelsbanken.se

Published: 14 may 2012 | The Week Ahead | Keywords: Calendar

The Week Ahead — May 14-18, 2012

US: In April, slowing headline inflation, weak retail sales and moderate growth in industrial production
Sweden: No major items
Norway: Stable credit growth in March

Helena Trygg, Economist | hetr01@handelsbanken.se

Published: 11 may 2012 | UK Next Weeks Agenda and Wrap up | Keywords: Bank of England Export - Import Industrial Production