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Further evidence of eurozone resilience to Brexit / Lower unemployment rate and weaker retail sales growth in Sweden

EMU Comment - Further evidence of eurozone resilience to Brexit

The euro zone Economic Sentiment Indicator rose from 104.4 to 104.6 i July - better than expected
Confirms message from the PMI's that negative effects of Brexit vote are negligible so far
Longer term consequences of Brexit are still unclear and we still see the ECB under pressure to act

Read why here

Fast Comment Sweden - Lower unemployment rate in June

  • Lower unemployment rate in June
  • Still high employment growth
  • Labour market data of lesser interest for the Riksbank

Read why here

Fast Comment Sweden - Weaker retail sales growth in June

  • Retail sales growth weaker than forecast
  • Retail confidence still above historic normal levels

Read why here

Latest from Speakers´ corner

Amerikanska centralbanken fortfarande försiktig

  • USA: Fed konstaterar att de kortsiktiga riskerna i ekonomin har minskat, men är i övrigt fortsatt mycket försiktiga. Inga stora förändringar i prisbilden för amerikanska räntor.
  • Japan: Marknaden osäker på vad det japanska stimulanspaketet egentligen innehåller och när åtgärderna ska komma

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Keywords: FED, Japan

The chart of the day

Calendar

Fri, Jul 22
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
09:00 Denmark Retail Sales June -1 0.6
09:00 France Markit PMI Composite July 49.2 49.6 50
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Manufacturing July 48.0 54.5 53.7
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Composite July 49.2 54.4 55.3
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite July 52.5 53.1 52.9
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Manufacturing July 52.0 52.8 51.9
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Services July 52.3 52.8 52.7
15:45 US Markit PMI Manufacturing July 51.8 51.3 52.9
Mon, Jul 25
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
US Democratic National Convention starts
10:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate July 107.6 108.7 108.3
10:00 Germany IFO - Expectations July 101.5 103.1 102.2
10:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment July 114 114.6 114.7
16:30 US Dallas Fed Man. Activity Index July -11.5 -18.3 -1.3
Tue, Jul 26
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland Unemployment Rate June 10.8 9.3
15:00 US House prices S&P/Case-Shiller May 0.2/5.5 -0.2 / 5.4 -0.1 / 5.2
16:00 US Consumer Confidence July 95.5 97.4 97.3
16:00 US New Home Sales June 558K 572K 592K
16:00 US Richmond Fed Man. Activity Index July -9.6 10
Wed, Jul 27
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland Consumer Confidence July 14.9 13.1
08:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey July 9.9 10.1 10
08:45 France Consumer Confidence (INSEE) July 96.9 96.3
09:00 Sweden Economic Tendency Survey July 102.9 102.9 103 102.2
09:00 Sweden Consumer Confidence (CCI) July 98.0 97.5 98.5 95.2
09:00 Sweden Manufacturing Confidence July 104.2 102.8 104.5 103.1
09:30 Sweden Export June -3.3 / 0.3 8.7 / -4.4
09:30 Sweden Import June 2.8 / 4.6 4.5 / -0.3
09:30 Sweden Household Lending June / 7.7 / 7.6
10:30 UK GDP April 0.5/2.1 0.4 / 2 0.6 / 2.2
14:30 US Durable Goods Orders June -1.3/ -2.8 / 2.4 -4 / -6.4
14:30 US Capital Goods Shipment Nondef ex Air June -0.5 -0.4
16:00 US Pending Home Sales, sa June -3.7 0.2
20:00 US FOMC target rate, upper band 7/27/2016 0.5 0.5
20:00 US FOMC target rate, lower band 7/27/2016 0.25 0.2 0.2
Thu, Jul 28
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland House Prices June 0.6 / 0.4 -0.6 / 0.3
09:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate, sa June 7.0 6.8 7.1 6.6
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales, sa June -0.1/ 0.3/ 2 -0.6
09:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate June 8.0 7.9 7.6 7.6
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales June /3.9 /3.9 / 5 / 3.2
10:00 Germany Unemployment Rate, sa July 6.1 6.1 6.1
11:00 Eurozone Business Confidence Indicator July 0.15 0.2 0.4
11:00 Eurozone Service Confidence Indicator July 10.1 10.9 11.1
11:00 Eurozone Economic Confidence July 103.7 104.4 104.6
14:00 Germany HICP preliminary July 0.3/0.3 0.1 / 0.2 0.4 / 0.4
14:00 Germany CPI preliminary July 0.2/0.3 0.1 / 0.3 0.3 / 0.4
14:30 US Initial jobless claims
Fri, Jul 29
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
01:05 UK Consumer Confidence July -7 -1
01:50 Japan CPI Core June /0.6 0 / 0.7
05:00 Japan BoJ Policy Rate 7/29/2016 -0.1
07:30 France GDP Q2 0.6 / 1.3
08:45 France CPI July 0.1 / 0.2
09:00 Denmark Unemployment June 4.3
09:00 Spain CPI July 0.5 / -0.8
09:00 Spain GDP Q2 0.7 / 3.1
09:30 Sweden GDP Q2 0.6/3.6 0.4/3.3 0.5 / 4.2
10:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (NAV) July 3.2 3.2 2.9
10:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (LFS) May 4.7 4.6 4.6
10:00 Norway Retail Sales ex auto sa June -0.6 -0.7 1.7
11:00 Eurozone CPI Flash estimate June 0.4 / -0.1 0.2 / 0.1
11:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate, sa June 10.1 10.1
11:00 Eurozone GDP, SA y-o-y Q2 1.5 1.7
11:00 Eurozone GDP q-o-q Q2 0.3 0.6
14:30 US GDP annualized, Q2 2.6 1.1
15:45 US Chicago ISM July 54.0 56.8
Mon, Aug 1
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
03:00 China PMI Manufacturing July 50
03:45 China Caixin PMI Manufacturing July 48.6
08:30 Sweden PMI manufacturing, sa July 53
09:00 Norway PMI manufacturing, sa July 53.5
10:30 UK Markit PMI Manufacturing July 49.1
11:00 Denmark PMI manufacturing, sa July 60.4
16:00 US ISM manufacturing July 51.7 53.2
17:00 World Markit PMI Manufacturing July 50.4
Tue, Aug 2
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
07:00 Japan Consumer Confidence July 42.5
14:30 US PCE Deflator June 0.2 / 0.9
14:30 US PCE Core June 0.2 / 1.5
15:45 US ISM New York July 45.4
Wed, Aug 3
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
04:00 Japan Markit PMI Composite July 49
08:30 Sweden PMI Services July 53.4
10:30 UK Markit PMI Composite July 47.7
10:30 UK Markit PMI Services July 47.4
11:00 Eurozone Retail Sales, sa June 0.4 / 1.7
11:15 Norway House prices July / 7.3
14:30 US Initial jobless claims
16:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing July 56.5
17:00 World Markit PMI Composite July 51.1
17:00 World Markit PMI Services July 51.3
Thu, Aug 4
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
10:00 Eurozone ECB publishes Economic Bulletin
Fri, Aug 5
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
10:00 Norway Industrial Production Manufacturing, sa June 0.1 0.2
10:00 Norway Industrial Production, sa June 0.1
14:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls July 287K
14:30 US Unemployment rate July 4.9
14:30 US Change in Private Payrolls July 265K
14:30 US Average hourly earnings July 0.1 / 2.6
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Fri, Aug 5
View the complete calendar

Latest publications in

EMU Comment — Further evidence of eurozone resilience to Brexit

  1. Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator rose from 104.4 to 104.6 in July, better than expected
  2. Confirms message from the PMIs that negative effects of Brexit vote are negligible so far
  3. Longer-term consequences of Brexit are still unclear and we still see the ECB under pressure to act

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment Sweden — Weaker retail sales growth in June

  1. Retail sales growth weaker than forecast
  2. Retail confidence still above historical normal levels

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Lower unemployment rate in June

  1. Lower unemployment rate in June
  2. Still high employment growth
  3. Labour market data of lesser interest for the Riksbank

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Fed took the safety off the gun, but the finger is not on the trigger

  1. The FOMC kept the federal funds target range unchanged at 0.25-0.5%, as expected
  2. The press statement was on the hawkish side, opening the door for an increase later this year
  3. We still view an increase this year as unlikely, but the rate increase theme could return

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

UK Comment — Strong UK growth probably ends here

  1. UK economic growth accelerated to 0.6% q-o-q in Q2 - stronger than expected
  2. Improvement was skewed toward the beginning of the quarter
  3. Indicators point to risk of recession in H2 2016 - Bank of England set to act

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment Sweden — Large drop in consumer confidence

  1. Manufacturing confidence close to our expectations
  2. Consumer confidence weaker than expected
  3. Economic Tendency Indicator slightly weaker than expected

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se