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US payrolls support a rate hike

  • US non-farm payrolls in November up by 178,000
  • Weaker-than-expected earnings
  • Unemployment rate declined unexpectedly to 4.6 percent

Read more in US comment

  • Finland´s Q3 GDP grew by 0.4 percent q-o-q and 1.6 percent y-o-y
  • Domestic demand remains a main driver
  • GDP growth is promising but exports still the main concern

Read more in Finnish comment

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Keywords: EMU, Politics, USA

The chart of the day

Calendar

Fri, Nov 25
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
09:30 Sweden Household Lending October / 7.5 / 7.1
10:30 UK GDP July 0.5/2.3 0.7 / 2.1 0.5 / 2.3
15:45 US Markit PMI Services flash November 54.8 51 49.1
Mon, Nov 28
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Norway Retail Sales ex auto sa October 0.4 0.5 -0.4 0.9
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales, sa October -0.3 0.7
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales October 0.8/2.0 2.1/2.9 / 1.6 / 2.4
16:30 US Dallas Fed Man. Activity Index November 1.5 -1.5 10.2
Tue, Nov 29
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
00:50 Japan Retail Sales October /-1.7 / -1.7 / -0.2
09:30 Sweden GDP Q3 0.5/3.1 0.7/3.1 0.6 / 3.6 0.5 / 2.8
11:00 Eurozone Industrial Confidence Indicator November -0.5 -0.6 -1.1
11:00 Eurozone Service Confidence Indicator November 12.5 12.1 12.1
11:00 Eurozone Economic Confidence November 106.8 106.4 106.5
14:00 Germany HICP preliminary November 0.1/0.8 0.2 / 0.7 0 / 0.7
14:30 US GDP annualized, Q3 3.0 1.4 3.2
15:00 US House prices S&P/Case-Shiller September 0.3 / 5.1 0.4 / 5.1
Wed, Nov 30
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
00:50 Japan Industrial Production, sa October 0.1 0.6 0.1
08:00 Norway Credit Indicator Growth October 5.1 5.1 5.1 5
08:00 Norway Credit Indicator Growth, Households October 6.2 6.3
10:00 Germany Unemployment Rate, sa November 6 6 6
11:00 Eurozone HICP Flash y-o-y November 0.6 0.6 / 0.5 / 0.6
13:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications, sa W47 / 5.5 / -9.4
14:15 US ADP Employment change November 160 119K 216K
14:30 US PCE Deflator October 0.3/1.5 0.2 / 1.2 0.2 / 1.4
14:30 US PCE Core October 0.1/1.7 0.1 / 1.5 0.1 / 1.5
15:45 US Chicago ISM November 52.0 50.6 57.6
16:00 US Pending Home Sales, sa October 1.4 0.1
Thu, Dec 1
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
01:30 Japan Markit PMI Manufacturing November 51.4 51.3
02:00 China PMI Manufacturing November 51.0 51.2 51.7
02:45 China Caixin PMI Manufacturing November 50.8 51.2 50.9
09:00 Norway PMI manufacturing, sa November 52.5 52 47.6
10:30 UK Markit PMI Manufacturing November 54.4 54.2 53.4
11:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate, sa October 10.0 9.9 9.8
15:45 US Markit PMI Manufacturing November 53.4 54.1
16:00 US ISM manufacturing November 52.1 51.9 53.2
Fri, Dec 2
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
10:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (NAV) November 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
14:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls November 175K 142K 178K
14:30 US Unemployment rate November 4.9 4.9 4.6
14:30 US Change in Private Payrolls November 165K 135K 156K
14:30 US Average hourly earnings November 0.2/2.8 0.4 / 2.8 -0.1 / 2.5
15:45 US ISM New York November 49.2 52.5
Fri, Nov 25|
Mon, Nov 28|
Tue, Nov 29|
Wed, Nov 30|
Thu, Dec 1|
Fri, Dec 2
View the complete calendar

Latest publications in

Macro Comment US — Payrolls of 178,000 support a rate hike in December

Non-farm payrolls in November were in line with expectations, increasing by 178,000. The unemployment rate declined unexpectedly to 4.6 percent, whereas hourly earnings fell by 0.1 percent, which was signifi-cantly weaker than expected. We keep our view that the next increase in the federal funds rate will take place in December. Financial markets agree and now fully price in such a rate hike.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

The Week Ahead — December 5 - 9

Eurozone: Draghi will do the minimum
Sweden: We expect October IP growth to move sideways
Norway: Regional Network to signal growth below Norges Bank's estimates

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

UK Next Week's Agenda and Wrap Up — December 2, 2016

Headlines for the UK economy and global highlights
Wrap up, November 21 - December 2
Next week's agenda, December 5-9
Financial overview, government bond yields and financial forecasts
News and statements during the week

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Finland — Finland’s GDP grew by 1.6 percent y-o-y in Q3

  1. Q3 GDP grew by 0.4 percent q-o-q and 1.6 percent y-o-y
  2. Domestic demand remains a main driver
  3. GDP growth is promising but exports still the main concern

Janne Ronkanen, Economist | jaro06@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — Registered unemployment flat in November

  1. Registered unemployment at 2.8 percent (unadjusted) in November
  2. The gap between survey and registered unemployment persists
  3. Norges Bank underestimates the level of labour market slack

Halfdan Grangård, Economist | hagr11@handelsbanken.no

Monthly Macro Update — Stimulus quickly trumped by overheating

US: Low unemployment implies limited room for expansion
Eurozone: Weak growth points to further policy stimulus
The Nordics: Labour market mismatch keeps Nordic unemployment high

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se