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UK government aims to buy more time

  • The UK government aims for 'status quo' transition period of two years
  • The UK still wants bespoke deal; a solution like the one for Norway or Canada will not be enough
  • Our take: transition period will buy more time, but hard Brexit still the most likely outcome

 Read why here

Kari Due-Andresen

Chief Economist Norway

Norway and UK

kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Latest analyses

2017-09-25

UK Comment

2017-09-21

Fast Comment Norway

2017-09-20

UK Comment
Latest from Speakers´ corner

Tyska valet

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Keywords: EMU, Politics, UK

The chart of the day

Calendar

Fri, Sep 22
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Manufacturing September 59.3 60.6
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Composite September 55.8 57.8
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite September 55.7 56.7
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Manufacturing September 57.4 58.2
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Services September 54.7 55.6
15:45 US Markit PMI Manufacturing September 52.8 53
Sun, Sep 24
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
Germany Parliamentary election
Mon, Sep 25
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
07:00 Japan Leading Index CI July 105.7 105.2
10:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate September 115.9 115.2
10:00 Germany IFO - Expectations September 107.8 107.4
10:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment September 124.7 123.6
14:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity Index August 0 -0.3
15:00 Eurozone ECB´s Draghi speaks
16:30 US Dallas Fed Man. Activity Index September 17 21.3
Tue, Sep 26
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland Unemployment Rate July 7.5
08:00 Finland Retail Trade ex auto August 1.7
15:00 US House prices S&P/Case-Shiller July 0.1 / 5.7
16:00 US Consumer Confidence September 122.9
16:00 US New Home Sales August 571K
16:00 US Richmond Fed Man. Activity Index September 14
Wed, Sep 27
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland Consumer Confidence September 23.5
08:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (LFS) July 4.3
09:00 Sweden Economic Tendency Survey August 109.0 110.7
09:00 Sweden Consumer Confidence (CCI) August 102.0 100.3
09:00 Sweden Manufacturing Confidence August 114 117.1
09:30 Sweden Export August -18.6 / 9.3
09:30 Sweden Import August -14.2 / 9.9
09:30 Sweden Household Lending August / 6.6
14:00 US Housing Starts August 1.2M
14:00 US Building Permits August 1.3M
14:30 US Durable Goods Orders August -6.8 / 4
14:30 US Capital Goods Shipment Nondef ex Air August 1.2
16:00 US Pending Home Sales, sa August -0.8
Thu, Sep 28
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland House Prices July 0.5 / 1.3
08:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey September 10.9
08:00 Norway Credit Indicator Growth August 5.7
08:00 Norway Credit Indicator Growth, Households August 6.6
09:00 Denmark Industrial Confidence Indicator September 0
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales, sa August -0.1/ 0.8
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales August /2.5 / 3.8
11:00 Eurozone Industrial Confidence Indicator September 5 5.1
11:00 Eurozone Business Confidence Indicator September 1.1
11:00 Eurozone Service Confidence Indicator September 14.8 14.9
11:00 Eurozone Economic Confidence September 111.8 111.9
14:00 Germany HICP preliminary September 0.2 / 1.8
14:00 Germany CPI preliminary September 0.1 / 1.8
14:30 US GDP annualized, Q2 3
14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W38 259K
Fri, Sep 29
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
01:05 UK Consumer Confidence September -10
01:50 Japan CPI Core August 0 / -0.1
08:00 Norway Retail Sales ex auto sa August 0.4
08:00 Norway Household goods consumption August -8.4 / 2.5
09:00 Denmark GDP Q2 0.6
10:00 Germany Unemployment Rate, sa September 5.7
10:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (NAV) September 2.7
10:30 UK GDP April 0.3 / 1.7
11:00 Eurozone CPI Flash estimate September /1.6 0.3 / 1.5
14:30 US PCE Deflator August 0.1 / 1.4
14:30 US PCE Core August 0.1 / 1.1
15:45 US Chicago ISM September 58.9
16:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment 95.3
Sat, Sep 30
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
03:00 China PMI Manufacturing September 51.7
03:45 China Caixin PMI Manufacturing August 51.6
Fri, Sep 22|
Sun, Sep 24|
Mon, Sep 25|
Tue, Sep 26|
Wed, Sep 27|
Thu, Sep 28|
Fri, Sep 29|
Sat, Sep 30
View the complete calendar

Latest publications in

UK Comment — Florence speech: The UK government aims to buy itself some more time

  1. The UK government aims for 'status quo' transition period of two years
  2. The UK still wants bespoke deal; a solution like the one for Norway or Canada will not be enough
  3. Our take: transition period will buy more time, but hard Brexit still the most likely outcome

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

EMU Comment — PMI surprises on the upside in September

  1. PMI regained the lost territory
  2. Both German and French business confidence surprised strongly on the upside
  3. Supports ECB’s plans of removing stimulus

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Sweden Comment — Preview of September sentiment indicators and August retail sales

  1. Retail sales growth likely eased in August, but still support decent consumption growth in Q3
  2. Overall sentiment to edge down, as expectations for business and consumer sentiment indicators are mixed
  3. Consumer confidence, all of a sudden, close to historical average, after a period of strength

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — Norges Bank more hawkish than expected

  1. Norges Bank more bullish on the real economy
  2. 30% probability of a hike in September next year
  3. First hike fully priced in by June 2019; three more hikes foreseen in 2020

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment US — Balance sheet normalisation and rate rise in December

  1. The Fed lifts its growth forecast
  2. Core inflation forecast unchanged
  3. Fed's fund rate forecast slightly lowered

Petter Lundvik, Senior Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se