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Global Macro Forecast - Meagre shelter for the global economy

  • Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
  • Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
  • Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

Latest analyses


Aktuell ekonomi


Swedish Rate Wrap



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Fast Comment Sweden — Inflation drops below Riksbank target as years of fast energy price rises finally come to an end

  1. Inflation at lowest since early 2018, marking the start of a longer fall
  2. Will the Riksbank Executive Board look through this soft patch driven by energy prices?
  3. More dark clouds forming on the horizon - we stick to our forecast that the Riksbank will cancel planned rate rises

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — CPI-ATE unchanged in June at 2.3 percent, slightly below expectations

  1. CPI-ATE unchanged at 2.3 percent, expected 2.4 percent
  2. Deviation too small to affect the key policy rate path
  3. Rate hike in September still a possibility; signalled at about a 70 percent chance by Norges Bank

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Core inflation in June

  1. The CPI-ATE expected slightly higher again in June; 2.4 pct, following 2.3 pct in May
  2. In line with Norges Bank; hence, neutral to the key policy rate path
  3. Recall the additional volatility in the CPI-ATE during the summer months

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |