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Global Macro Forecast

Världen spretar

  • Geopolitiska risker dominerar
  • USA och Kina styr världskonjunkturen
  • Konjunkturen byter karaktär - avmattning på gång

 

A diverging world

  • Geopolitical risks dominate
  • US and China dictating the pace
  • Shift in economic cycle imminent - slowdown in the pipeline
  
  

Latest publications in

Fast Comment Sweden — Housing prices in August indicate that stabilisation continues

  1. Sideways trend continues after small monthly price rise
  2. Significant house price rise in a couple of regions
  3. Elevated supply to gradually dampen ahead, easing downward pressure on housing prices

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Inflation in August strengthens our forecast for Riksbank hike

  1. Inflation marginally lower than Riksbank forecast, as we had expected
  2. Stripping out noisy components, underlying inflation is well behaved, pointing to upswing ahead
  3. We stick to our forecast for a Riksbank hike in February 2019

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — No boost to infrastructure yet

  1. Mixed activity data – fixed investment growth still weak
  2. We see growth slowing further

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment Norway — Norges Bank to (slightly) lift its near-term policy rate path

In June, Norges Bank indicated that the policy rate would be increased by 25 basis points in September. Beyond that, Norges Bank expected two more rate increases throughout 2019, and a total of seven rate in-creases over the entire forecasting horizon (until the end of 2021). News since the June meeting has largely surprised on the upside. Against this backdrop, we believe Norges Bank will signal it is more likely than not with three rate hikes in 2019. But the outlook calls for a careful approach, and we believe Norges Bank will keep the longer end of the rate path intact.

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

EMU Comment — Growth outlook a little weaker; but acknowledges wage growth

  1. Little new information
  2. Growth outlook a little weaker, but rising wages noted
  3. December policy meeting possibly a bit more interesting

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk