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Global macro forecast — Global boom starting to cool

 

  • Stimulus measures in the US fuel growth but add risk
  • Bottlenecks and higher interest rates slowing global growth
  • Protectionism causing uncertainty

Global Marco Forecast - Global Boom starting to cool 

Ann Öberg

Head of Economic Research

Chief Economist Global Research

anob04@handelsbanken.se

Latest publications in

EMU Comment — Neutral ECB, despite signs of weakness

    The ECB is not overly concerned As widely expected, today's ECB policy meeting offered little news compared to the previous policy meeting in March. The ECB left interest rates and forward guidance unchanged. Hence, the bank’s monetary policy stance is unchanged and fairly neutral. Our focus was on possible signs that the ECB views the recent worsening of economic data as challenging the positive growth outlook (graph).

    Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment Sweden — Riksbank monetary policy decision: Fully in line with our expectations

  1. No repo rate change, but first rise delayed
  2. Changes in the communication, both on the krona and on preparedness to adjust policy
  3. We expect the first rate rise in December

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — April sentiment indicators

  1. Manufacturing confidence resurgent
  2. Consumer sentiment not particularly upbeat
  3. Labour shortage remains elevated

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Housing prices in April (due next Friday)

  1. Housing prices probably hit a trough in January...
  2. ...as prices have risen modestly (S.A) throughout February and March
  3. A soft landing indeed; modest outlook

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Retail sales and credit indicator growth in March (Monday)

  1. Retail sales and credit indicator growth in March (Monday)
  2. Retail sales probably rose sharply, following several negative months
  3. Credit indicator growth expected unchanged, at 6.3 percent

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — LFS unemployment down to 3.9 percent in February, somewhat better than expected

  1. LFS unemployment at 3.9 percent in February, down from 4.0 percent in January
  2. We and consensus expected 4.0 percent in February
  3. Registered figures more important to Norges Bank; April figures due tomorrow

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no