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Macro Comment Sweden

As safe as houses?

We expect upward price pressure from strong employment and income conditions to counterbalance increased supply and rising borrowing costs, resulting in a stable price trend ahead. Housing starts are likely to continue falling next year, but we think it will stabilise thereafter, given the housing shortage and strong household finances. The high number of projects up for completion in 2019 could pose risks to prices and bring further pain to smaller developers, especially given limited scope to change regional focus or switch to rental accommodation. However, the relatively low importance of smaller developers to the wider economy should mean that any fallout is contained, in our view.

Analysts:

Helena Bornevall hebo12@handelsbanken.se 
Johan Löf jolo22@handelsbanken.se 

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Latest publications in

UK Comment — Consumer price inflation fell as expected in December

  1. CPI and core CPI of 2.1% and 1.9% respectively
  2. Inflation just above the 2% target
  3. Bank of England on the sidelines

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist | kisa02@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — CPI December: Inflation at Riksbank target. Again.

  1. More than two years of two percent
  2. 2019 to continue in the same fashion, we expect
  3. Today's CPI details signal that inflation will continue to soar in the very near term

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Preview: Housing prices in December, stable but slightly negative?

  1. We have seen a gradual stabilisation of housing prices in 2018
  2. Figures from Svensk Mäklarstatistik indicate a slight decline
  3. We stick to our analysis of stable prices this year, see further details in our macro comment

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist | hebo12@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — CPI December good news for the Riksbank, but what about 2019?

  1. Two full years with inflation at the Riksbank's target
  2. 2019 will start with rising underlying inflation, but not as fast as the Riksbank forecasts
  3. Clothing and travel prices are risks, but in different ways

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Finland — Still decent manufacturing output in Finland

  1. Finnish industrial output grew 1.6 percent y-o-y in November
  2. Value of new manufacturing orders plunged, due to strong reference month
  3. Finnish industry still holding up reasonably well, although somewhat feeling the global manufacturing slowdown

Janne Ronkanen, Senior Economist | jaro06@handelsbanken.se