Research


Choose type:


UK referendum on the EU ends with an exit

  • Sweden: A "hard" vote to leave
  • Extreme volatility in most markets
  • Complicated political Picture

Read more in the Swedish comment

  • Impact of Brexit on the Danish economy is uncertain but most likely negative
  • Biggest risks stemming from uncertainty
  • Nationalbanken might respond with a rate cut

Read more in the Danish comment

Latest from Speakers´ corner

Brexit i fokus

  • Spanien: Spanjorerna valde säkerhet framför nya uppstickarpartier i söndagens val och regeringspartiet Partido popular, med ledaren Rajoj, gick framåt. Vallokalsundersökningar pekade på större vänstervindar. Ingen given regeringskoalition finns dock
  • IMF: Effekterna av Brexit hänger på vilka policybeslut som tas, enligt Lagarde. Upp till politikerna att skingra den osäkerhet som valresultatet gav upphov till. EU måste hitta jämvikt i förhandlingar med UK – smittorisken ät stor till EU:s övriga delar
  • Kina: Premiärminister Li ser ökad osäkerhet efter Brexit. Upprepar att tillväxten kommer att hållas inom målsatta intervall och att det finns utrymmer för finanspolitiska stimulanser för att stödja detta. Upprepar vidare att det inte behövs en trendmässig devalvering för att uppnå detta
  • UK: Moody’s sänker kreditutsikterna för betyget Aa1 till negativa från stabila. Den osäkerhet som råder under kommande förhandlingar kommer hålla tillbaka konsumtion och investeringar och därmed tillväxt

0 comments

Keywords: UK, China, EMU

The chart of the day

Calendar

Thu, Jun 23
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
UK Referendum EU-membership
08:00 Finland Retail Trade ex auto May 1 2
09:00 France Markit PMI Composite June 50.9 49.4
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Manufacturing June 52.0 52.1 54.4
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Composite June 55.0 54.5 54.1
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite June 53.0 53.1 52.8
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Manufacturing June 51.4 51.5 52.6
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Services June 53.2 53.3 52.4
10:00 Norway Norway Policy Rate decision 6/24/2016 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W24 277K 259K
14:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity Index May 0.1 -0.5
15:45 US Markit PMI Manufacturing June 50.7 51.4
16:00 US Leading Index May 0.6 -0.2
16:00 US New Home Sales May 586K 551K
Fri, Jun 24
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:45 France GDP Q1 0.6/1.4 0.4 / 1.3 0.6 / 1.3
10:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate June 107.4 107.8 108.7
10:00 Germany IFO - Expectations June 101.2 101.7 103.1
10:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment June 114.0 114.2 114.5
14:00 US Housing Starts May 1.2M 1.2M
14:00 US Building Permits May 1.1M 1.1M
14:30 US Durable Goods Orders May -0.5 3.3 / 1.9 -2.2 / 3.2
14:30 US Capital Goods Shipment Nondef ex Air May 0.6 -0.5
16:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment 94.1 94.7 93.5
17:00 China Peoples Bank of China Governor speaks at IMF
Sun, Jun 26
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
Spain Spanish general election
Mon, Jun 27
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland Consumer Confidence June 12.5 14.9
15:45 US Markit PMI Services flash June 51.2
16:30 US Dallas Fed Man. Activity Index June -20.8
Tue, Jun 28
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland House Prices May 1.9 / 1.5
08:45 France Consumer Confidence (INSEE) June 98.3
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales, sa May 1.6/ 0
09:30 Sweden Export May -4 / 0
09:30 Sweden Import May -6.1 / -0.9
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales May /3.6 / 1.7
14:30 US GDP annualized, Q1 1.0 0.8
15:00 US House prices S&P/Case-Shiller April 0.5 0.9 / 5.4
16:00 US Consumer Confidence June 93.0 92.6
16:00 US Richmond Fed Man. Activity Index June -1
Wed, Jun 29
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey June 9.8
09:00 Denmark Industrial Confidence Indicator June -8
09:30 Sweden Household Lending May / 7.5
11:00 Eurozone Industrial Confidence Indicator June -3.6
11:00 Eurozone Business Confidence Indicator June 0.3
11:00 Eurozone Service Confidence Indicator June 11.3
11:00 Eurozone Economic Confidence June 104.7
14:00 Germany HICP preliminary June 0.4 / 0
14:00 Germany CPI preliminary June 0.3 / 0.1
14:30 US Personal Real Consumption May 0.6 / 3
14:30 US PCE Deflator May 0.2 0.3 / 1.1
14:30 US PCE Core May 0.1/1.7 0.1 / 1.4
16:00 US Pending Home Sales, sa May -1.5 5.1
Thu, Jun 30
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
01:05 UK Consumer Confidence June -1
01:50 Japan Industrial Production, sa May 0.5
08:45 France HICP June 0.5 / 0.1
09:00 Denmark GDP Q1 0.5
09:00 Denmark Unemployment May 4.3
10:00 Germany Unemployment Rate, sa June 6.1
10:00 Norway Credit Indicator Growth May /5.0 5.1
10:30 UK GDP January 0.4 / 2
11:00 Eurozone CPI Flash estimate /0.0
15:45 US Chicago ISM June 50.4 49.3
Fri, Jul 1
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
01:30 Japan CPI Core May 0.2 / 0.7
01:50 Japan Tankan Large Enterprices Manufacturing Q2 6
03:00 China PMI Manufacturing June 50.1 49.9 50.1
03:45 China Caixin PMI Manufacturing June 49.2 49.0 49.2
08:30 Sweden PMI manufacturing, sa June 54
09:00 Norway PMI manufacturing, sa June 51.1
09:15 Spain Markit PMI Manufacturing June 51.8
09:45 Italy Markit PMI Manufacturing June 52.4
10:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (NAV) June 3.0 2.9
10:30 UK Markit PMI Manufacturing June 50.1
11:00 Denmark PMI manufacturing, sa June 60.9
11:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate, sa May 10.2
16:00 US ISM manufacturing June 51.0 51.3
17:00 World Markit PMI Manufacturing June 50
Tue, Jul 5
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
03:45 China Caixin PMI Composite June 50.5
04:00 Japan Markit PMI Composite June 49.2
08:30 Sweden PMI Services June 54.4
09:30 Sweden Industrial Production, sa May 0.2/ 0.1
09:30 Sweden Service Production, sa May 1.7 / 5.1
09:30 Sweden Industrial Production May /2.5 / 3.5
10:30 UK Markit PMI Composite June 53
10:30 UK Markit PMI Services June 53.5
11:00 Eurozone Retail Sales, sa May 0 / 1.5
11:15 Norway House prices June / 7.3
15:45 US ISM New York June 37.2
Wed, Jul 6
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Germany Factory orders, sa May -2 / -0.6
08:00 Sweden Unemployment Rate (PES) June 3.6
09:30 Sweden Repo rate decision 7/13/2016 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5
16:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing June 52.9
17:00 World Markit PMI Composite June 51.1
17:00 World Markit PMI Services June 51.4
20:00 US FOMC meeting minutes release
Thu, Jul 7
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Germany Industrial Production, sa May 0.8
09:00 Denmark Industrial Production, sa May 1.6 / 1.1
09:30 UK Houseprices, Halifax June 0.6
10:00 China China foreign reserves USD June 3.2B
10:00 Norway Industrial Production Manufacturing, sa May -0.7
10:00 Norway Industrial Production, sa May 0.8
10:30 UK Manufacturing Production, sa May 2.4 / 0.9
10:30 UK Industrial Production, sa May 2 / 1.6
14:15 US ADP Employment change June 173K
Fri, Jul 8
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland Industrial Production,sa May 1.8
08:00 Germany Imports May -0.3
08:00 Germany Exports May 0
14:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls June 38K
14:30 US Unemployment rate June 4.7
14:30 US Change in Private Payrolls June 25K
14:30 US Average hourly earnings June 0.2 / 2.5
Thu, Jun 23|
Fri, Jun 24|
Sun, Jun 26|
Mon, Jun 27|
Tue, Jun 28|
Wed, Jun 29|
Thu, Jun 30|
Fri, Jul 1|
Tue, Jul 5|
Wed, Jul 6|
Thu, Jul 7|
Fri, Jul 8
View the complete calendar

Latest publications in

UK Next Week's Agenda and Wrap Up — June 27, 2016

- Headlines for the UK economy and global highlights
- Wrap up, June 20-24
- Next week's agenda, June 27-July 1             
- Financial overview, government bond yields and financial forecasts
- The economy: What now?         
- News and statements during the week

Helena Trygg, Economist | hetr01@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Finland — Consumer confidence improved in June

  1. Consumers’ confidence stood at 14.9 in June
  2. Expectations of Finland’s economy have improved
  3. Enhanced consumer sentiment supports outlook for consumption growth

Janne Ronkanen, Economist | jaro06@handelsbanken.se

Global Comment — Brexit: Consequences for Denmark

  1. UK vote to leave the EU will most likely have negative effects on the Danish economy
  2. Risks faced by the Danish economy include weaker trade, reduced investor and business confidence and financial market volatility
  3. The DKK could come under intensified appreciating pressure, which at some point could force Nationalbanken to cut rates

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

Brexit — UK referendum on the EU ends with a call for exit

  1. A "hard" vote to leave
  2. Extreme volatility in most markets
  3. Complicated political picture

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment Sweden — Brexit: implications for the Swedish economy

In this note, we outline a short summary of possible impacts on Sweden in the event of a Brexit.

Anders Brunstedt, Economist | anbr42@handelsbanken.se

The Week Ahead — June 27 – July 1

Eurozone: Inflation leaving negative territory
China: A slight PMI decline points to stable economic growth
Sweden: Expect strengthening in May retail sales
Norway: Retail spending trends a cause for concern

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no