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Financial conditions key to the Fed

We are convinced that financial conditions - both actual and expected-are key to understanding the Fed and a key why they not have delivered in line with its forward guidance since the start of policy normalisation in late 2013. We expect financial conditions to deteriorate sharply in the future, which will contribute to an end of policy tightening in 2018 and to prompt a recession in 2019.

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Petter Lundvik

Senior Economist

US and India

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Fortsatt oljeprisfall

  • USA: Myndigheter öppnar upp för att lätta på reglering efter Trumps önskelista om lättnader – bla Volcker rule och stresstester
  • UK: Samtalen mellan Tories och DUP gnisslar. Ännu ingen uppgörelse
  • Nya Zeeland: CB lämnar räntan oförändrad på 1,75%
  • Sverige: M-ledaren kräver enad alliansfront efter öppet bråk mellan Lööf och Thor. AKB utesluter inte misstroende mot finansminister Andersson


Keywords: Oil, UK, USA

The chart of the day


Thu, Jun 22
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
10:00 Norway Norway Policy Rate decision 6/23/2017 0.50 0.50 0.5
16:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence advance June -3 -3.3
Fri, Jun 23
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
02:30 Japan Markit PMI Manufacturing June 53.1
09:00 France Markit PMI Composite June 56.7 56.9
09:00 France Markit PMI Manufacturing June 54.0 53.8
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Manufacturing June 59.0 59.5
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Composite June 57.2 57.4
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite June 56.6 56.8
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Manufacturing June 56.8 57
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Services June 56.1 56.3
15:45 US Markit PMI Manufacturing June 52.7
16:00 US New Home Sales May 590K 569K
Mon, Jun 26
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
10:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate June 114.6
10:00 Germany IFO - Expectations June 106.5
10:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment June 123.2
14:00 US Housing Starts May 1.1M
14:00 US Building Permits May 1.2M
14:30 US Durable Goods Orders May -0.8 / 0.9
14:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity Index May 0.5
16:30 US Dallas Fed Man. Activity Index June 17.2
Tue, Jun 27
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
16:00 US Richmond Fed Man. Activity Index June 1
Thu, Jun 29
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
01:50 Japan Retail Sales May /2.6 / 3.2
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales, sa May 1.3
09:30 Sweden Household Lending May / 7
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales May 0.7/2.5 / 4.5
11:00 Eurozone Industrial Confidence Indicator June 2.8
11:00 Eurozone Economic Confidence June 109.2
14:00 Germany HICP preliminary June -0.2 / 1.4
Fri, Jun 30
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
01:50 Japan Industrial Production, sa May 4
01:50 Japan CPI Core May 0 / -0.3
01:50 Japan CPI May 0.1 / 0.4
03:00 China PMI Manufacturing June 51.0 51.2
08:00 Norway Retail Sales ex auto sa May 0.2
08:00 Norway Credit Indicator Growth May 5.1
10:00 Germany Unemployment Rate, sa June 5.7
10:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (NAV) June 2.6
11:00 Eurozone CPI Flash estimate June -0.1 / 1.4
11:00 Eurozone HICP Flash y-o-y June / 1.4
14:30 US PCE Deflator May -0.1/ 0.2 / 1.7
14:30 US PCE Core May 0.1 / 1.4
15:45 US Chicago ISM June 58.0 59.4
16:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment 94.5
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Fri, Jun 30
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Latest publications in

Fast Comment Norway — Gjedrem committee delivers proposal for new central bank act

  1. Separation of oil fund and monetary policy
  2. A more focused and dedicated monetary policy committee, central bank to decide on financial stability measures
  3. Monetary policy targets up for regular revision

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

EMU Comment — Eurozone economy losing some steam

  1. Preliminary composite PMI fell from 56.8 to 55.7 in June - below consensus
  2. Despite the drop, PMI still points to solid growth in Q2
  3. Price pressure still too weak for the ECB's liking

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark |

Fast Comment Norway — Norges Bank slightly more hawkish than expected

  1. Norges Bank kept policy rate unchanged and removed likelihood of a near-term rate cut
  2. Real economy stronger, but inflation once again falling short
  3. Norges Bank's inflation forecast still too optimistic, in our view; planned hikes will have to be postponed

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Fast Comment Denmark — Consumer confidence rose as expected

  1. Consumer confidence rose from 5.8 to 7.1 in June - in line with our expectations
  2. Seasonally adjusted consumer confidence rose from 4.9 to 6.5 following two months of decline
  3. Indicates that the weakness in private consumption in Q1 hopefully was temporary

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark |

Macro Comment Sweden — Mopping up the package tour mess: inflation to stay close to target over the summer, but will ease this autumn

Inflation will likely be dampened by multiple factors ahead, but is expected to trend close to target for many months to come. This near-term inflation boost is merely a transitory effect from package tour prices, and therefore something the Riksbank will look through. To explain why currently soaring inflation read-ings will not in themselves affect the Riksbank's decisions at the July and September monetary policy meetings, this article takes a look at the nitty-gritty of package tour prices.

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |