Global Macro Forecast - Global tensions - but no recession

Economic Calendar — August 24-30, 2019

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: GDP, retail sales and registered unemployment

1. Mainland GDP growth bouncing back from a temporary slowdown
2. Retail spending supported by solid fundamentals
3. The downtrend in unemployment has slowed a bit, probably due to increased supply

EMU Comment — Better than expected eurozone PMI as Germany lags

1. Better than expected eurozone PMI
2. Germany: Manufacturing PMI sluggish, but better than expected
3. France: Solid performance in services complemented by return to manufacturing growth

Fast Comment Sweden — The best days in the labour market are behind us; new evidence in July unemployment data

1. Unemployment has already started to rise, even though the economic boom has only recently begun to diminish
2. No major slump in other labour demand data, yet
3. Will we see signs this afternoon that fiscal policy will react to deterioration?

Fast Comment Norway — Investment survey (oil & gas) confirms a stellar increase in 2019; 2020 more uncertain

1. Stellar increase in petroleum investments in 2019; NB has already factored it in
2. Investment growth in 2020 is more uncertain, however
3. The Q4 survey will provide more clarity

Fast Comment Norway — Unemployment pushed higher by a recovering labour force participation rate

1. LFS unemployment jumped to 3.6 pct in June
2. Above expectations; we and consensus expected 3.4 pct
3. The labour market is not particularly tight at the moment; policy rate to be kept unchanged