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Norges Bank to lower its key policy rate path

  • Norges Bank to cite housing market concerns
  • Softer outlook for Mainland GDP
  • Inflation to undershoot the target in 2017
  • Higher money market premiums

Read why here, new window

Marius Gonsholt Hov

Economist

Norway

maho60@handelsbanken.no

Latest analyses

2016-12-07

Fast Comment Norway

2016-12-07

Morgenrapport Norge

2016-12-07

Macro Comment Norway
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The chart of the day

Calendar

Fri, Dec 2
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland GDP, sa Q3 -0.1 0.4
10:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (NAV) November 2.8 2.8
14:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls November 180K 142K 178K
14:30 US Unemployment rate November 4.9 4.9 4.6
14:30 US Change in Private Payrolls November 175K 135K 156K
14:30 US Average hourly earnings November 0.2/0.8 0.4 / 2.8 -0.1 / 2.5
15:45 US ISM New York November 49.2 52.5
Sat, Dec 3
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
15:30 US Fed´s Dudley speaks on financial regulation
Sun, Dec 4
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
Austria Presidential election
Italy Constitutional referendum
Mon, Dec 5
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
02:45 China Caixin PMI Composite November 52.9 52.9
06:00 Japan Consumer Confidence November 101.5 42 40.5
08:30 Sweden PMI Services November 57.6 59.8
09:30 Sweden Industrial Production, sa October 0.2/ 0.4/ 6.8 -1.3
09:30 Sweden Service Production, sa October 0.5 / 3.8 0.2 / 3.9
09:30 Sweden Industrial Production October /1.5 /1.5 / 1.6 / -0.5
09:55 Germany Markit PMI Composite November 55.1 55
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite November 54.1 53.3 53.9
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Services November 54.1 52.8 53.8
10:30 UK Markit PMI Composite November 54.6 54.7 55.2
11:00 Eurozone Retail Sales, sa October 0.8/1.7 -0.4 / 1.2 1.1 / 2.5
11:15 Norway House prices November / 12 / 11.6
14:30 US Fed´s Evans speaks
14:30 US Fed´s Dudley speaks on policy
16:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing November 55.2 54.8 57.2
17:00 World Markit PMI Composite November 53.3 53.3
17:00 World Markit PMI Services November 53.2 53.3
17:00 World Markit PMI Services November 53.2 53.3
20:05 US Fed´s Bullard speaks
Tue, Dec 6
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Germany Factory orders, sa October 0.6/1.6 -0.3 / 2.9 4.9 / 6.3
10:00 Norway Region Survey: Output next 6 months October 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.7
10:45 Sweden Riksbank´s Flodén speaks
11:00 Eurozone GDP, SA y-o-y Q3 /1.6 1.7 1.7
11:00 Eurozone GDP q-o-q Q3 0.3/ 0.3 0.3
16:00 US Durable Goods Orders October 0.7 0.3 / 2 4.6 / 1.8
16:00 US Capital Goods Shipment Nondef ex Air October 0.5 -0.1
16:00 US Factory Orders, sa October 2.6 0.6 2.7
Wed, Dec 7
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
02:00 China China foreign reserves USD November 3085M 3.1B 3.1B
08:00 Germany Industrial Production, sa October 0.8/1.5 -1.6 0.3
08:00 Norway Industrial Production Manufacturing, sa October 1.0/ 2.3 0.2
08:00 Norway Industrial Production, sa October -5.2 10.7
08:00 Sweden Riksbank´s Jansson speaks
09:00 Denmark Industrial Production, sa October -7.5 / -4 4.7 / 3.6
09:30 UK Houseprices, Halifax November 0.2 1.5 0.2
10:30 UK Manufacturing Production, sa October 0.2/0.8 0.6 / 0.2 -1 / -0.5
10:30 UK Industrial Production, sa October 0.2/0.4 -0.3 / 0.4 -1.3 / -1.2
13:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications, sa W48 / -9.4 / -0.7
Thu, Dec 8
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
00:50 Japan GDP, sa ar Q3 0.6 0.2 0.5
01:00 UK RICS House Price Balance November 27 23.4 29.7
09:30 Sweden Average House Prices, (SCB) November 2.7M
09:30 Sweden Household Consumption
13:45 Eurozone ECB Policy Rate 10/1/2016 0 0 0
13:45 Eurozone ECB Lending Rate 10/1/2016 0.25 0.25 0.2
13:45 Eurozone ECB Deposit rate 10/1/2016 -0.40 -0.40 -0.4
14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W48 250K 268K
Fri, Dec 9
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
02:30 China CPI y-o-y November 2.2 / 2.1
08:00 Finland Industrial Production,sa October 2.7
08:00 Germany Imports October 1.1 -0.5
08:00 Germany Exports October 1.6 -0.7
08:00 Norway CPI Underlying November 0.1/2.9 /2.9 0.2 / 2.9
08:00 Norway CPI November 0.2/3.5 0.5 / 3.7
16:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment 94.1 93.8
Fri, Dec 2|
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Thu, Dec 8|
Fri, Dec 9
View the complete calendar

Latest publications in

Fast Comment Norway — Manufacturing output has contracted by 3.2 percent over the past three months

  1. Manufacturing output rose by 0.2 percent in October, somewhat weaker than expected
  2. Output has contracted by 3.2 percent over the past three months
  3. We expect a downtrend ahead due to a further decline in petroleum investments

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Macro Comment Norway — Norges Bank to lower its key policy rate path

Since September, several factors pull in the direction of a lower interest rate path from Norges Bank: eco-nomic growth appears to be both slower and more fragile than expected by Norges Bank, wage and price growth seem weaker, the NOK is stronger and money market premiums have stayed higher. On the other hand, international interest rate expectations have increased somewhat and the housing market has once again surprised on the upside. We believe Norges Bank will keep its policy rate on hold at the upcoming meeting, but lower the path for the key policy rate, signalling an increased likelihood of a rate cut in H1 2017.

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Regional Network: Little change to growth expectations

  1. Q4 Regional Network survey shows moderate but increasing growth ahead
  2. Wage growth expectations for 2017 much lower than Norges Bank's estimate
  3. Growth expectations slightly below Norge Bank's projections

Halfdan Grangård, Economist | hagr11@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Housing prices rose by 0.8 percent in November; more muted than in October, but still above Norges Bank

  1. Housing prices up 0.8 percent in November, down from 1.4 percent in October and 0.9 percent in September
  2. Still higher than expected by Norges Bank
  3. Norges Bank will keep its policy rate on hold at the upcoming meeting, we expect

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Sweden — Weaker than expected IPI in October

  1. IPI in October: -1.3/-0.5 percent m-o-m/y-o-y
  2. IPI in last three months: 0.1/-1.3 percent m-o-m/y-o-y on average

Anders Brunstedt, Economist | anbr42@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment US — Payrolls of 178,000 support a rate hike in December

Non-farm payrolls in November were in line with expectations, increasing by 178,000. The unemployment rate declined unexpectedly to 4.6 percent, whereas hourly earnings fell by 0.1 percent, which was signifi-cantly weaker than expected. We keep our view that the next increase in the federal funds rate will take place in December. Financial markets agree and now fully price in such a rate hike.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se