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Macro Comment Sweden

As safe as houses?

We expect upward price pressure from strong employment and income conditions to counterbalance increased supply and rising borrowing costs, resulting in a stable price trend ahead. Housing starts are likely to continue falling next year, but we think it will stabilise thereafter, given the housing shortage and strong household finances. The high number of projects up for completion in 2019 could pose risks to prices and bring further pain to smaller developers, especially given limited scope to change regional focus or switch to rental accommodation. However, the relatively low importance of smaller developers to the wider economy should mean that any fallout is contained, in our view.

Analysts:

Helena Bornevall hebo12@handelsbanken.se 
Johan Löf jolo22@handelsbanken.se 

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Published: 14 December 2018 | Economic Calendar | Keywords: Calendar

14 December 2018

Economic Calendar — December 14-21, 2018

Published: 14 December 2018 | Fast Comment Sweden (en) | Keywords: Business Surveys Consumer Surveys Retail Sales The Riksbank

14 December 2018

Fast Comment Sweden — Week ahead: Riksbank on hold, but economic boom keeps on rolling

  1. November inflation dip took Riksbank's December hike off the table...
  2. ...but sentiment surveys to confirm strong economic climate, underpinning inflation outlook
  3. Retail sales to rebound following last month's surprise plunge

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Published: 14 December 2018 | Fast Comment Norway (en) | Keywords: EUR/NOK Labour Market NOK/SEK

14 December 2018

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: registered unemployment in December

  1. Registered unemployment expected at 2.4 percent; unchanged from November
  2. A continuation of the levelling out of the unemployment rate
  3. We expect declining unemployment further ahead

Halfdan Grangård, Senior Economist | hagr11@handelsbanken.no

Published: 14 December 2018 | Fast Comment EMU | Keywords: Business Surveys ECB Eurozone

14 December 2018

EMU Comment — PMI dragged down by French unrest

  1. Deteriorating sentiment gained strength
  2. PMI dragged down by French unrest
  3. Adds to ECB’s downside risks

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Published: 14 December 2018 | Fast Comment Sweden (en) | Keywords: Housing Market

14 December 2018

Fast Comment Sweden — Housing prices in November: in line with expectations

  1. Small decrease in the monthly figure, but stable trend
  2. Similar trend for houses and tenant-owned apartments
  3. We expect a gradual stabilisation on the housing market

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist | hebo12@handelsbanken.se

Published: 14 December 2018 | Fast Comment China | Keywords: China

14 December 2018

Fast Comment China — The economy slows further down

  1. Most activity indicators fell again in November
  2. Fixed investments helped by stimuli
  3. Stimuli not enough to avoid further slowdown

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

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