Global Macro Forecast - High on risk, low on ammo

Economic Calendar — October 14-18, 2019

Fast Comment Sweden — September inflation unexpectedly back in line with Riksbank's forecast: Exit night, enter light?

1. No, worries remain. Base effects from last year’s drought-induced price spikes mean inflation set to pick up more
2. However, forward-looking indicators are rolling over, so next year will see durably slower inflation
3. Still likely that the Riksbank will call off planned rate rises, in our view

Fast Comment Finland — Industrial production edged up in August

1. Manufacturing output grew 4.4 percent y-o-y in August
2. New manufacturing orders contracted by 17 percent
3. Goods export growth remains solid this year

Fast Comment Norway — CPI-ATE a touch above expectations; deviation too small to affect the key policy rate

1. CPI-ATE rounded up to 2.2 percent in September; marginally above expectations
2. Deviation too small to affect the trajectory of the key policy rate path
3. We continue to believe the base case is for Norges Bank to keep its policy rate on hold

Global Macro Forecast — High on risk, low on ammo

• Downside risks burdening global growth
• Consumers holding up
• Low interest rates are the new normal

Fast Comment Sweden — August business sector production brushing aside PMI scare, for now

1. Better-than-expected growth outcome, with strong details
2. But comfort may be short-lived as orders data continue to be poor
3. Riksbank has been too optimistic; reaction to be expected at October meeting