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Mature business cycle changes the risk profile

  • Strong start to 2018, but a weaker ending
  • Asset price tailwinds subsiding
  • Upside risks to inflation and interest rates

Read the revised forecast in Global Macro Forecast Update, new window. På svenska, Global Konjunkturprognos , nytt fönster

Ann Öberg

Head of Economic Research

Chief Economist Global Research

anob04@handelsbanken.se
Latest from Speakers´ corner

Toppar världskonjunkturen i år?

Handelsbankens dagsfärska globala konjunkturprognos - Makromorgon special med Ellinor Beckett på EFN och Handelsbankens prognoschef Christina Nyman om:
  • Varför vi räknar med att konjunkturen förstärks ytterligare under 2018
  • Hur centralbankerna fortsätter omläggningen av penningpolitiken
  • Varför vi bedömer att detta kommer innebära stigande långräntor 
  • Vilka blir de stora ekonomiska frågorna 2018 och 2019

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Keywords: Global

The chart of the day

Calendar

Fri, Jan 19
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
02:30 China GDP q-o-q Q4 1.8 1.6
02:30 China GDP yoy/ytd Q4 6.8 6.8
10:30 UK Retail Sales incl. Auto Fuel December 1 / 1.6 -1.6 / 1.4
16:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment 95.9 94.4
Mon, Jan 22
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Norway Industrial Confidence Q4 2.8
08:00 Norway Business Tendencey Survey Q4 2.3
14:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity Index December 0.2
Tue, Jan 23
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
04:00 Japan BoJ Policy Rate 1/23/2018 -0,1 -0.1
08:00 Denmark Consumer Confidence January 6.5
08:00 Denmark Retail Sales December 2.2
09:00 Sweden Riksbank´s Governor Ingves in Open hearing Financial Stability
11:00 Germany ZEW Eurozone Economic Sentiment January 29
11:00 Germany ZEW Economic Expectations January 17,7 17.4
11:00 Germany ZEW Current Situation January 89,9 89.3
16:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence advance January 0,6 0,3 0.5
16:00 US Richmond Fed Man. Activity Index January 18 20
Wed, Jan 24
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Manufacturing January 63 63.3
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Composite January 58,5 58.9
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite January 57,9 57,7 58.1
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Manufacturing January 60,3 60,1 60.6
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Services January 56,4 56,4 56.6
10:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate, sa October 4,3 4.3
11:30 Sweden Riksbank´s Floden speaks
16:00 US Existing Home Sales December 5,69 5.8M
Thu, Jan 25
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland Unemployment Rate December 7.1
08:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey January 10,8 10.8
08:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (LFS) November 4
09:00 Sweden Economic Tendency Survey January 113 112.5
09:00 Sweden Consumer Confidence (CCI) January 107 108.2
09:00 Sweden Manufacturing Confidence January 119 116.8
09:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate, sa December 6,6 6.4
09:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate December 6,2 5.8
10:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate January 117 117.2
10:00 Germany IFO - Expectations January 109,6 109.5
10:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment January 125,4 125.4
10:00 Norway Norway Policy Rate decision 1/26/2018 0.5
13:45 Eurozone ECB Policy Rate 1/25/2018 0,0 0,0 0
14:00 US Housing Starts December 1.2M
14:00 US Building Permits December 1.3M
14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W2 220K 220K
16:00 US New Home Sales December 675K 733K
Fri, Jan 26
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
00:30 Japan CPI December 0.7 / 0.6
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales, sa December -0,5 1
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales December 4,3 / 3.8
10:30 UK GDP October 0,4/1,4 0.4 / 1.7
14:30 US Durable Goods Orders December 0,9 1.3 / 8.2
14:30 US GDP annualized, Q4 2,9 3.2
14:30 US Capital Goods Shipment Nondef ex Air December -0.1
Fri, Jan 19|
Mon, Jan 22|
Tue, Jan 23|
Wed, Jan 24|
Thu, Jan 25|
Fri, Jan 26
View the complete calendar

Latest publications in

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Survey unemployment in November (due Thursday)

  1. LFS unemployment rate expected at 4.0 percent in November, unchanged from October
  2. Survey employment picking up, better matching the GDP data
  3. Labour participation rate appears to have reached its cyclical low; some recovery is expected

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Preview Norges Bank

  1. Too little new information to change assessment
  2. Policy rate to be kept unchanged at 0.5 percent

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment China — Stable economic growth

  1. GDP growth reported at 6.8 percent y-o-y in Q4
  2. Sharp decline in retail sales growth in December
  3. Gradual growth slowdown ahead

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Global Macro Forecast - update — Mature business cycle changes the risk profile

• Strong start to 2018, but a weaker ending
• Asset price tailwinds subsiding
• Upside risks to inflation and interest rates

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — CPI inflation looks to have peaked

  1. CPI inflation down to 3.0% in December, in line with consensus
  2. Cost pressures easing
  3. CPI inflation broadly in line with BoE expectation

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no