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Macro Comment Sweden

Valet blir stökigt, men marknaden tar det med ro

Opinionsläget tyder på att det kommer att bli en utdragen och komplicerad regeringsbildning efter valet den 9 september. Valrörelsen kommer att präglas av regeringsfrågan. Men det finns ingenting som tyder på att partierna kommer att bringa klarhet hur landet ska styras efter valet. Det mesta talar för att det i slutändan blir en minoritetsregering med ett svagt och osäkert regeringsunderlag

Läs hela rapporten på svenska: 
Valet blir stökigt, men marknaden tar det med ro

Read full report in English:
The election will be messy, but the market is relaxed


Anders Bergvall

Anders Bergvall

Senior Economist

Thematic analysis and USA

anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2018-08-03

Fast Comment US

2018-08-01

Fast Comment US

2018-07-06

Fast Comment US

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Fast Comment Norway — Norges Bank on hold, but clearly signals hike in September

  1. Norges Bank kept the policy rate at 0.5 percent
  2. Outcome expected by both us and consensus
  3. The central bank clearly signals that a rate hike in September is still on

Halfdan Grangård, Senior Economist | hagr11@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK CPI inflation increases to 2.5% in July, slightly lower than the BoE expected

  1. CPI inflation up to 2.5% in July from 2.4% in June; core CPI inflation unchanged at 1.9%
  2. Headline inflation buoyed by energy price inflation
  3. Inflation to decelerate ahead

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK labour market numbers mixed

  1. Unemployment down to 4.0%, total pay down to 2.4% and regular pay down to 2.7% in June
  2. Unemployment pulled down by drop in labour force
  3. Trend in line with BoE expectations so far

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Mainland GDP growth expected to be slowed by electricity supply; still solid underlying momentum

  1. Mainland GDP growth estimated at 0.5 percent in Q2; held back by lower electricity supply
  2. Survey unemployment estimated to be slightly lower in June
  3. We continue to expect a rate hike in September

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Sweden — Preview: Housing prices in July

  1. We expect the HOX index to show stable prices in July
  2. Sales activity is low, but normal for this summer month
  3. Activity will soon speed up, but the supply will also increase

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist | hebo12@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — July data more evidence of growth slowing down

  1. Past deleveraging efforts still biting
  2. Stimuli not yet visible in data
  3. Monetary policy now being eased

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk