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Global Macro Comment

The lay of "The Land"

What do we really know about inflation? The state of the art was recently laid out by top academics and central bank economists at the "Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics" conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In this comment we give a first-hand account of what was discussed in "The Land". The conference gave greater insight into the anchoring of inflation expectations at central banks' targets, mixed with a new understanding of inflation fundamentals. Change is often hard work, but policymakers would be smart to embrace these latest insights.

Global Macro Comment - The lay of "The Land"

Johan Löf

Senior Economist

Sweden

jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2018-06-19

Fast Comment Sweden

2018-06-15

Global Macro Comment

2018-06-14

Fast Comment Sweden

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Fast Comment Norway — Norges Bank sticks to its strategy as we expected; first rate hike expected in September

  1. Policy rate unchanged at 0.5 percent; policy rate path also virtually unchanged
  2. Oil price and housing market lift policy rate trajectory, whereas inflation and global outlook burden
  3. Norges Bank expects seven rate hikes by year-end 2021; we believe it will manage only three

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Sweden — May unemployment and preview of June sentiment indicators

  1. Unemployment trending down - we consider revising down forecast once again
  2. June sentiment indicators expected to support our forecast for an orderly cooling down of GDP
  3. Inflation expectations among consumers will continue to rise

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — The lay of "The Land"

What do we really know about inflation? The state of the art was recently laid out by top academics and central bank economists at the "Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics" conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In this comment we give a first-hand account of what was discussed in "The Land". The conference gave greater insight into the anchoring of inflation expectations at central banks' targets, mixed with a new understanding of inflation fundamentals. Change is often hard work, but policymakers would be smart to embrace these latest insights.

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — BoE to leave policy unchanged at its June meeting

  1. The majority of MPC members will probably want to wait and see
  2. Data have been mixed
  3. Market will watch for signals regarding August; we do not expect a rate hike until November

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Sweden — Housing prices in May

  1. Housing prices increased slightly; closely in line with expectations
  2. Overall turnover has slowed, but the number of houses sold was rather in line with last year
  3. Step by step, housing prices appear to be stabilising

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist | hebo12@handelsbanken.se