- Unchanged unemployment rate since March; a tad higher than expected
- April reading mainly close to expectations
- Higher-than-expected labour force participation an upside risk to unemployment rate outlook
US: In April, capital goods shipments probably rose by 0.3 percent. The FOMC minutes likely focused on the costs and benefits of further QE.
Sweden: Forecast strengthening of May confidence in general; slight rebound forecast to lower April unemployment.
Norway: No items.
EMU: We expect the PMI Composite to increase to 47.1 in May.
China: Hopes for a pickup in Q2 growth are fading.
Hopes for a pickup in growth in the second quarter are fading, but at the same time there are no signs of a sharp deceleration either. When we received the flash HSBC manufactur-ing PMI this week, it was with some unease. In recent months, economic indicators have generally disappointed and the surprisingly weak GDP report for the first quarter has led to widespread downward adjustments of growth expectations for this year. The consensus view for this week's PMI report is an unchanged reading of 50.4 in May. Thus, there is so far little evidence of a recovery in the second quarter - at least not one driven by the manu-facturing sector. The average PMI reading in the first quarter was 51.5 which, if expecta-tions of a flat May statement are met, will be hard to live up to in the second quarter.
- Core CPI inflation declined to 1.7 percent in April, from 1.9 percent in March
- Headline CPI inflation down to 1.1 percent, from 1.5 percent in March
- Core CPI inflation likely to remain below Fed's target of 2 percent