Global Macro Forecast - Global economy on shaky ground

Economic Calendar — February 22 - March 1, 2019

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: labour market statistics and retail spending

1. Small changes to overall unemployment; we expect fairly stable LFS and registered unemployment rates
2. Whopping decline in retail sales in December, but probably some payback in January
3. We expect retail sales rose by 1 percent m-o-m in January

Fast Comment Sweden — Week ahead: GDP back on its feet, but economic sentiment to cool further

1. GDP not showing a technical recession, we forecast
2. Economic sentiment in gradual descent
3. Stay alert on shaky retail sales

EMU Comment — Finally an increase in PMI

1. First increase in PMI in six months
2. Service sector recovers, but German manufactures even more downbeat
3. Somewhat comforting for the ECB

Fast Comment Norway — Oil and gas survey: Downwardly revised 2019-estimates; also signalling a drop in 2020

1. Downwardly revised estimates for 2019
2. Petroleum investments reported to drop significantly in 2020
3. At face value, weaker than expected by Norges Bank

Fast Comment Sweden — Inflation disappoints, adding to Riksbank worries ahead of April meeting

1. Inflation well short of expectations
2. But volatile components explain most of our forecast error - partly temporary?
3. For the time being, we stick to our view of decent inflation developments in 2019