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Swedish super strong confidence

  • Super strong manufacturing survey
  • Overall confidence boosted by manufacturing 'overshooting'
  • Private services confidence vital to the GDP outlook

Read why here

Anders Brunstedt

Economist

Sweden

anbr42@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2017-04-26

Fast Comment Sweden

2017-04-25

Fast Comment Sweden

2017-04-25

Fast Comment Sweden
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Keywords: UK, EMU, Politics, USA

The chart of the day

Calendar

Fri, Apr 21
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
02:30 Japan Markit PMI Manufacturing April 52.4 52.8
08:00 Norway Industrial Confidence Q1 -0.2 0.9
08:00 Norway Export March -6.1 / 19.4 10.5 / 29
09:00 France Markit PMI Composite April 56.8 57.4
09:00 France Markit PMI Manufacturing April 53.3 55.1
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Manufacturing April 58.9 58.3 58.2
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Composite April 56.8 57.1 56.3
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite April 56.4 56.4 56.7
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Manufacturing April 56.0 56.2 56.8
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Services April 55.9 56 56.2
10:30 UK Retail Sales incl. Auto Fuel March 1.8 / 3.7 -1.8 / 1.7
15:45 US Markit PMI Manufacturing April 53.8 53.3 52.8
16:00 US Existing Home Sales March 5.6M 5.5M 5.7M
Sun, Apr 23
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
France First round presidential election
Mon, Apr 24
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
10:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate April 112.3 112.4 112.9
10:00 Germany IFO - Expectations April 106.0 105.7 105.2
10:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment April 119.0 119.5 121.1
14:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity Index March 0.3 0.1
16:30 US Dallas Fed Man. Activity Index April 17.5 16.9 16.8
Tue, Apr 25
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
09:00 Denmark Retail Sales March 0.3 0.5
09:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate, sa March 6.8 6.4
09:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate March 7.4 6.8
15:00 US House prices S&P/Case-Shiller February 0.7/5.73 0.9 / 5.6 0.7 / 5.8
16:00 US Consumer Confidence April 123.7 124.9 120.3
16:00 US New Home Sales March 588K 587K 621K
16:00 US Richmond Fed Man. Activity Index April 17 22 20
Wed, Apr 26
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Finland Retail Trade ex auto March 1 2
08:45 France Consumer Confidence (INSEE) April 99.9 99.9
09:00 Sweden Economic Tendency Survey April 108.8 112.8
09:00 Sweden Consumer Confidence (CCI) April 102.6 103.4
09:00 Sweden Manufacturing Confidence April 111.9 123.2
Thu, Apr 27
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
05:00 Japan BoJ Policy Rate 4/27/2017 -0.1 -0.1
08:00 Finland Consumer Confidence April 22.9
08:00 Finland Unemployment Rate March 9.2
08:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey April 9.9 9.8
08:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (LFS) February 4.2 4.2
09:00 Denmark Industrial Confidence Indicator April -1
09:30 Sweden Export March -1.6 / 7.4
09:30 Sweden Import March -1 / 7.2
09:30 Sweden Repo rate decision 5/3/2017 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5
11:00 Eurozone Industrial Confidence Indicator April 1.2 1.2
11:00 Eurozone Business Confidence Indicator April 0.81 0.8
11:00 Eurozone Economic Confidence April 108.1 107.9
13:45 Eurozone ECB Policy Rate 3/1/2017 0.0 0
14:00 Germany HICP preliminary April -0.2/1.8 0.1 / 1.5
14:00 Germany CPI preliminary April -0.1/1.9 0.2 / 1.6
14:30 US Durable Goods Orders March 1.5 1.8 / 5.3
14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W16 244K
14:30 US Capital Goods Shipment Nondef ex Air March 1
16:00 US Pending Home Sales, sa March -0.5 5.5
Fri, Apr 28
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
01:05 UK Consumer Confidence April -7 -6
07:30 France GDP Q1 0.4/ 0.4 / 1.1
08:00 Norway Retail Sales ex auto sa March 0.0 1
08:00 Norway Household goods consumption March -5.2 / -2.3
08:45 France HICP April 0.7 / 1.4
09:00 Denmark Unemployment March 4.3
09:00 Denmark Unemployment, LFS 6.4
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales, sa March 0.2
09:30 Sweden Retail Sales March / 2.8
10:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (NAV) April 2.8 2.9
10:30 UK GDP January 0.4/2.2 0.7 / 1.9
11:00 Eurozone HICP Flash y-o-y April 1.7 / 1.5
14:30 US GDP annualized, Q1 1.2 2.1
14:30 US Personal Consumption Q1 0.9 / 3.1
15:45 US Chicago ISM April 56.9 57.7
16:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment 98.4 98
Fri, Apr 21|
Sun, Apr 23|
Mon, Apr 24|
Tue, Apr 25|
Wed, Apr 26|
Thu, Apr 27|
Fri, Apr 28
View the complete calendar

Latest publications in

EMU Comment — Preview - ECB to maintain status quo for now

  1. ECB Governing Council members have emphasised unchanged policy since March
  2. Next (small) step expected in June

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment Sweden — Super strong manufacturing confidence

  1. Super strong manufacturing survey
  2. Overall confidence boosted by manufacturing 'overshooting'
  3. Private services confidence vital to the GDP outlook

Anders Brunstedt, Economist | anbr42@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — We expect slightly weaker sentiment

  1. Manufacturing Confidence Indicator estimated at 111.2 (prior 112.7)
  2. Consumer Confidence Indicator estimated at 103.4 (102.6)
  3. Economic Tendency Indicator estimated at 108.7 (109.2)

Anders Brunstedt, Economist | anbr42@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — Public sector borrowing higher than expected in March

    Public sector net borrowing higher than expected in March, but in line with OBR estimate for financial yearPublic sector net borrowing (PSNB) excluding banking groups was GBP 5.1bn in March; the consensus expectation was GBP 3.1bn. PSNB excluding banking groups in March this year was the highest since March 2015 and GBP 0.8bn higher than in March 2016. However, borrowing for earlier months was revised down and initial estimates indicate that PSNB in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017) was GBP 52bn, or 2.

    Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Sweden — Unexpected employment strength

  1. SA unemployment rate in March 6.4 percent (estimated 6.7 percent)
  2. Y-o-y drop in unemployment rate: 0.9 p.p. (SA and UNSA)

Anders Brunstedt, Economist | anbr42@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Slow decrease in unemployment likely to continue

  1. Forecast on March unemployment rate: 6.7/7.3 percent (SA, UNSA)
  2. Our outlook: unemployment rate not likely to fall below 6.5 percent

Anders Brunstedt, Economist | anbr42@handelsbanken.se