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Revising Fed forecast

  • Fed will hold rates steady in September
  • To announce a plan to reduce its balance sheet instead
  • Quantitative tightening risks rising over time
Read analysis here

 

 

Petter Lundvik

Senior Economist

US and India

pelu16@handelsbanken.se

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Fri, Aug 18
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
03:30 China Building 70 Cities Price Index July 115.8 113.1
08:00 China Retail Sales y-o-y July 11 10.4
16:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment 94 93.4 97.6
Mon, Aug 21
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
14:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity Index July 0.1
Tue, Aug 22
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
06:30 Norway Consumer Expectations, sa Q3 11.1
08:00 Finland Unemployment Rate July 8.9
09:00 Denmark Retail Sales July -0.2
11:00 Germany ZEW Eurozone Economic Sentiment August 35.6
11:00 Germany ZEW Economic Expectations August 15.0 17.5
11:00 Germany ZEW Current Situation August 85.3 86.4
16:00 US Richmond Fed Man. Activity Index August 10 14
Wed, Aug 23
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (LFS) June 4.3 4.3
09:00 Denmark Consumer Confidence August 10.5
09:00 Eurozone ECB´s Draghi speaks
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Manufacturing August 57.7 58.1
09:30 Germany Markit PMI Composite August 54.7 54.7
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite August 55.5 56.0 55.7
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Manufacturing August 56.3 56.8 56.6
10:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Services August 55.4 56.0 55.4
15:45 US Markit PMI Manufacturing August 53.4 53.3
16:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence advance August -2.3 -1.7
16:00 US New Home Sales July 610K 610K
Thu, Aug 24
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
08:00 Norway GDP Mainland, sa Q2 0.7 0.6
09:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate, sa July 6.6 6.4
09:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate July 5.9 7.4
10:00 Norway Norges Bank's Expectation Survey
10:30 UK GDP April 0.3/1.7 0.3 / 1.7
13:00 Sweden Riksbank´s af Jochnick speaks
16:00 US Existing Home Sales July 5.56M 5.5M
Fri, Aug 25
      Graph Period Cons. fc Our fc Previous Actual
01:50 Japan CPI Core July 0 / -0.2
08:00 Germany GDP, sa Q2 0.6/2.1 0.6 / 2.1
09:30 Sweden Household Lending July / 6.7
10:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate August 115.5 116
10:00 Germany IFO - Expectations August 106.8 107.3
10:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment August 125.0 125.4
14:30 US Durable Goods Orders July -5.8 6.4 / 16.2
14:30 US Capital Goods Shipment Nondef ex Air July 0.1
16:00 US Fed´s Yellen speaks at Jackson Hole Conference
Fri, Aug 18|
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Latest publications in

Macro Comment US — Balance sheet reduction in September

We revise our Fed forecast: we now believe that the central bank will hold rates steady in September and instead announce a plan to reduce its balance sheet at the meeting. In June this year, the Fed published a plan for quantitative tightening. Balance sheet reductions are not intended to play an active role in mone-tary policy during normal times. The Fed's intention is that they should run quietly in the background for years, while monetary policy is operated through adjustments of the federal funds rate.

Petter Lundvik, Senior Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — Labour market trending roughly in line with the BoE’s expectation

    Unemployment rate falls further, to 4.4%; wage growth up to 2.1%Today’s labour market numbers were largely in line with the Bank of England’s (BoE) expectation. The unemployment rate for the three months to June fell to 4.4 percent, from 4.5 percent in May. The consensus expectation was for the unemployment rate to stay unchanged, at 4.5 percent. Average weekly earnings, both total pay and regular pay (excluding bonuses), increased by 2.

    Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — CPI inflation unchanged at 2.6% in July, in line with the BoE’s expectation

  1. CPI unchanged at 2.6% (consensus: 2.7%) and core CPI unchanged at 2.4% (consensus: 2.5%)
  2. Cost pressures high but abating; both PPI input and output inflation fell further
  3. The BoE expects inflation to increase a little further and reach its peak before year-end

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Sweden — Inflation in July

  1. Inflation in July rose far above the Riksbank forecast, mainly owing to temporary factors
  2. Underlying inflation still judged to be below inflation target; upward trend modest
  3. No change to our Riksbank expectations; rate increase in April 2018

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — The downward trend for activity growth is back

  1. Gradual growth slowdown continues
  2. Only bright spot in July: Infrastructure investments
  3. We raise our GDP forecast

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk