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Global Macro Forecast - Meagre shelter for the global economy

  • Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
  • Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
  • Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

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Swedish Rate Wrap



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Fast Comment Sweden — Smooth sailing, housing prices remain stable

  1. Housing prices rose slightly in April and remain higher than a year ago
  2. Flats and houses are, to some extent, two different stories at the moment
  3. Threats and opportunities, with shaky global backdrop but lower interest rates

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |

Macro Comment Eurozone — European Parliament elections: A battle for the future of Europe

This month's upcoming elections to the European Parliament are set to be particularly important, given the timing of selection processes for key EU leadership positions. In line with improving economic conditions, trust in EU institutions has improved. Although anti-establishment parties are likely to boost their support, riding on anti-incumbent sentiment over immigration policies and pocketbook economics, the probability of translating this into policy shifts within the EU is relatively low. Differences in populist parties' ideological as well as policy preferences are likely to raise barriers to a cohesive eurosceptic bloc. More likely is a coalition including either the greens or the liberals, which if anything ought to result in more EU integration rather than less. Yet the coming bargaining process as the ruling coalition in the European Parliament moves from two to more parties still carries risks, and our view is that this factor will offset the relief of populists failing to gain significant power, with an expected net neutral market impact overall.

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Survey unemployment (LFS) in March

  1. LFS unemployment expected down to 3.7 pct in March, following 3.8 pct in February
  2. Labour market trends support NB's arguments for a rate hike in June
  3. Combined with a more expansionary fiscal stance, the likelihood of a third rate hike (2019) has increased

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment China — Growth slowed even before new tariffs hit

  1. China’s economy lost momentum in April
  2. Slightly better chance of a trade deal
  3. More stimuli to be expected

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — Revised fiscal budget for 2019: Surprisingly expansionary

  1. Revenue spending increasing to NOK 238bn this year, up from NOK 220bn in 2018
  2. Fiscal impulse of 0.5 percent this year, above Norges Bank's estimate
  3. All else equal: increases the possibility for two more rate hikes this year

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |