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Global Macro Comment

The lay of "The Land"

What do we really know about inflation? The state of the art was recently laid out by top academics and central bank economists at the "Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics" conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In this comment we give a first-hand account of what was discussed in "The Land". The conference gave greater insight into the anchoring of inflation expectations at central banks' targets, mixed with a new understanding of inflation fundamentals. Change is often hard work, but policymakers would be smart to embrace these latest insights.

Global Macro Comment - The lay of "The Land"

Johan Löf

Senior Economist


Latest analyses


Fast Comment Sweden


Global Macro Comment


Fast Comment Sweden

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Fast Comment Norway — Broad set of key data coming up, confirming solid GDP growth

  1. The labour market continues to strenghten; survey and registered unemployment trending lower
  2. Overall credit growth little changed; retail spending trending upwards
  3. The data will confirm NB's expectations of solid growth in the mainland economy

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

UK Comment — BoE more hawkish than expected

  1. Policy rate unchanged at 0.5 percent, but minority favouring an imminent rate hike increased to three from two
  2. MPC sees Q1 weakness as merely temporary
  3. Increased likelihood of a rate hike in August

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Fast Comment Norway — Norges Bank sticks to its strategy as we expected; first rate hike expected in September

  1. Policy rate unchanged at 0.5 percent; policy rate path also virtually unchanged
  2. Oil price and housing market lift policy rate trajectory, whereas inflation and global outlook burden
  3. Norges Bank expects seven rate hikes by year-end 2021; we believe it will manage only three

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Fast Comment Sweden — May unemployment and preview of June sentiment indicators

  1. Unemployment trending down - we consider revising down forecast once again
  2. June sentiment indicators expected to support our forecast for an orderly cooling down of GDP
  3. Inflation expectations among consumers will continue to rise

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |