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Global Macro Comment

The lay of "The Land"

What do we really know about inflation? The state of the art was recently laid out by top academics and central bank economists at the "Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics" conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In this comment we give a first-hand account of what was discussed in "The Land". The conference gave greater insight into the anchoring of inflation expectations at central banks' targets, mixed with a new understanding of inflation fundamentals. Change is often hard work, but policymakers would be smart to embrace these latest insights.

Global Macro Comment - The lay of "The Land"

Johan Löf

Senior Economist

Sweden

jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2018-06-15

Global Macro Comment

2018-06-14

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2018-06-05

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Latest publications in

UK Comment — UK retail sales grew strongly in May

  1. Retail sales up 1.3 percent in May on the heels of strong growth in April
  2. Some of the strength in May was due to one-off effects
  3. Underlying consumption growth has strengthened, but not as much as May numbers could suggest

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Sweden — May inflation above Riksbank target as positive energy price trend continues

  1. Inflation in line with expectations, and will rise further in June
  2. The energy price rise is no longer a temporary nuisance for the Riksbank
  3. Another sign that the Riksbank will indeed hike its policy rate in December

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — The slowdown finally sets in

  1. Very weak activity figures in May
  2. Growth slowdown is here
  3. Monetary policy being eased rather than tightened

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment US — Fed hikes rates, signals two more rate hikes in the second half of this year

  1. Fed hikes rates as expected
  2. Two more rate hikes in the second half of this year signalled
  3. Policy rates higher than the long-run neutral rate in 2019

UK Comment — Labour market numbers broadly as expected

  1. Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2 percent; regular pay growth down to 2.8 percent; total pay growth stays flat
  2. Year-on-year wage growth appears to have peaked and should decelerate further as base effect dissipates
  3. So far, numbers are fairly in line with the Bank of England's estimates

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Regional Network: the growth outlook remains favourable

  1. Small changes to the growth signals...
  2. ...suggesting mainland GDP growth of 2.6 percent this year, matching Norges Bank's estimate
  3. Norges Bank’s assessment of a rate rise in September remains intact

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no