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Global Macro Forecast - High on risk, low on ammo

  • Downside risks burdening global growth
  • Consumers holding up
  • Low interest rates are the new normal
Link to full report

Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

chny09@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2019-10-09

Global Macro Forecast

2019-10-09

Global konjunkturprognos

2019-08-21

Global macro forecast

Morgonrapport

08 Oct

09 Oct

10 Oct

11 Oct

Idag

Latest publications in

Fast Comment Norway — Slightly contractive fiscal budget; below Norges Bank's expectations

  1. Slightly contractive fiscal budget; below Norges Bank's expectations
  2. If anything, it strengthens our call for Norges Bank to keep its policy rate unchanged
  3. Manufacturing output softening

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Fiscal budget for 2020 and core inflation for September

  1. Core inflation (CPI-ATE) hovering around target
  2. The budget proposal should be a non-event for financial markets
  3. Norges Bank to keep its policy rate unchanged for the foreseeable future

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Sweden — Week ahead: Inflation to hit short-term bottom, business production to confirm worsening sentiment data

  1. Inflation to have eased further in September, but near-term pickup awaits despite growth outlook doom and gloom
  2. A longer-lasting drop in inflation is not expected to take hold until next year
  3. Production growth to have stayed on downward trend, reinforcing our below-consensus GDP forecast

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — The same old story: Housing prices are rising at a modest pace

  1. Housing prices up by 0.2 percent in September, seasonally adjusted
  2. Activity remains high, but the market remains well-balanced
  3. Near-term outlook: Prices should continue to hover around 0.25 percent m-o-m (S.A.)

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

EMU Comment — Another disinflationary month

  1. Another disinflationary month
  2. Big four euro countries drive down inflation
  3. Ongoing disinflation strengthens ECB doves

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist | erme03@handelsbanken.se