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Global Macro Forecast - Meagre shelter for the global economy

  • Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
  • Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
  • Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

chny09@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2018-11-22

Aktuell ekonomi

2018-09-13

Swedish Rate Wrap

2018-09-13

Ränterullen

Latest publications in

Fast Comment Sweden — No signs of confidence for labour market developments; June sentiment survey and May unemployment report

  1. Broad deterioration in sentiment, as manufacturing follows global climate downward
  2. Weakening leading indicators for employment
  3. Unemployment may already have bottomed out, trending above our forecast for 2019

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Housing prices rise in May; upward risk to our 2019 call for stable prices

  1. Annual housing price rise now steadily positive after a period of stabilisation
  2. Broad-based rise across the regions
  3. But risks to prices remain, and newly produced homes are still falling in price

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment Sweden — The krona has weakened, but it is not particularly weak

As the krona plunged to its weakest since the financial crisis, the exchange rate debate quickly spiralled. Media stories discussed the role of the Riksbank's monetary policy, how general risk aversion is hitting small open economies and how global uncertainty is high. But the debate has not stopped there: hypothe-ses are being treated as truths and remain unchallenged. What if the krona has weakened but should not be regarded to be particularly weak? After revisiting the fundamentals behind exchange rate trends and discussing the statistical pitfalls of comparing price data in different countries, we conclude that a signifi-cant part of the trend-weakening of the krona over the past decade can be explained by inflation rising faster in Sweden. As a consequence, the krona's undervaluation is not as sizeable as many have argued and our new fair value assessments are for a weaker krona than we previously estimated.

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Solid May CPI report

  1. Indications of a pick up in underlying inflation, much in line with our near-term outlook
  2. Spike in hotel prices might have been partly temporary, but, overall, a solid inflation print
  3. Despite near-term strength, we think inflation will fade next year, forcing the Riksbank to cancel planned rises

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — May data confirm that the worst is not over

  1. Industrial sector hit by trade war
  2. Rebound earlier this year was not ‘real’
  3. Only a minor stimulus-driven rebound

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk