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Macro Comment Sweden

As safe as houses?

We expect upward price pressure from strong employment and income conditions to counterbalance increased supply and rising borrowing costs, resulting in a stable price trend ahead. Housing starts are likely to continue falling next year, but we think it will stabilise thereafter, given the housing shortage and strong household finances. The high number of projects up for completion in 2019 could pose risks to prices and bring further pain to smaller developers, especially given limited scope to change regional focus or switch to rental accommodation. However, the relatively low importance of smaller developers to the wider economy should mean that any fallout is contained, in our view.

Analysts:

Helena Bornevall hebo12@handelsbanken.se 
Johan Löf jolo22@handelsbanken.se 

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  2. The electrical and electronics industry a bright spot, other main sectors were weak
  3. The underlying trend in Finnish industry has weakened, yet new orders brighten the near term outlook

Tiina Helenius, Chief Economist Finland | tihe01@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — CPI-ATE well above expectations; supporting further rate hikes in 2019 (March and September)

  1. CPI-ATE at 2.2 percent in November, against expectations of 1.9 percent
  2. The near-term momentum has been greater than anticipated by Norges Bank
  3. Notwithstanding increasing global uncertainties, Norges Bank will stick to its plan of hiking the policy rate twice in 2019

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment US — Strong labour market keeps Fed on track for rate increase later this month

  1. Underlying employment growth strong
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  3. Fed on course for rate increase later this month

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: core inflation in November pulled up by base effects; neutral to Norges Bank

  1. CPI-ATE expected at 1.8 percent in November, up from 1.6 percent in October; driven by a base effect
  2. Matching Norges Bank's estimate
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Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Positive trend in manufacturing; the outlook remains bright, supported by rising petroleum investments

  1. Manufacturing output up by 1.5 percent in October; better than expected
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Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no