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Global Macro Forecast - Meagre shelter for the global economy

  • Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
  • Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
  • Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

Latest analyses


Aktuell ekonomi


Swedish Rate Wrap



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Fast Comment Norway — Norges Bank guiding more explicitly towards a rate hike in June; hawkish

  1. Policy rate kept on hold (1.0 percent), as widely expected
  2. The outlook for the key policy rate path is little changed...
  3. ...but Norges Bank is now guiding more explicitly towards a hike in June (not September)

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — Manufacturing output down by 0.4 percent in Q1; well below expectations

  1. Manufacturing output fell further in March (-0.8 percent), well below expectations
  2. Output has declined by 0.4 percent in Q1, despite higher activity among oil-supplying industries
  3. Downside risks to the upcoming GDP print for Q1

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Sweden — Business sector production weighed down by manufacturing in freefall, but March PVI actually not that bad

  1. PVI weak in March, but overall the first quarter turned out as expected
  2. Is the manufacturing plunge a temporary hiccup, or an early sign of things to come?
  3. Riksbank minutes do not change our forecast for no further rate hikes this cycle

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — Well balanced housing market; small price changes since last summer (S.A)

  1. Unchanged housing prices in April (S.A), Oslo modestly down by -0.1 percent
  2. The outturn was well in line with signals received from the supply and demand balances
  3. Housing prices flat/modestly up since last summer (S.A); well balanced

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment US — Strong payrolls, but moderate wage growth

  1. Strong payrolls; unemployment at its lowest rate since 1969
  2. Wage growth holds steady
  3. We expect job growth to slow down and the Fed’s next move will be to cut rates

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist |