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Global Macro Forecast - Meagre shelter for the global economy

  • Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
  • Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
  • Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

chny09@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2018-11-22

Aktuell ekonomi

2018-09-13

Swedish Rate Wrap

2018-09-13

Ränterullen

Latest publications in

EMU Comment — Euro area inflation expectedly flat at 1.2%, driven by services

  1. Eurozone inflation as expect flat at 1.2%, driven by services
  2. France and Italy illustrate diverging inflation outlooks within the eurozone
  3. Focus on upcoming G-20 meeting

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist | erme03@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — Registered unemployment at 2.1% in June, in line with expectations

  1. Registered as well as survey unemployment falling
  2. The labour market improvement has further to go

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Sweden — Retail sales plunged in May but year-to-date trend remains healthy; Riksbank policy announcement and May business sector production in week ahead

  1. After a buoyant outcome in April, retail sales plummeted in May, but 2019 so far gives some boost to GDP
  2. Riksbank on hold next week but tweaks forward guidance, as solid inflation provides breathing space
  3. Cooling off on the economy continues and in May we think manufacturing has dragged down overall production

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Housing prices in June (due next Wednesday)

  1. Moderate uptrend in average housing prices
  2. Activity remains high
  3. Housing prices (y-o-y) running below the wage growth rate

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Macro Comment Sweden — Ökad jämställdhet leder till högre tillväxt

Det finns en stor potential att globalt öka tillväxten och stärka den ekonomiska stabiliteten om jämställdheten mellan män och kvinnor ökar. Effekten skulle vara störst i länder, som Indien och Italien, som har ett mycket lågt arbetskraftsdeltagande bland kvinnor. Men även i Sverige finns det en potential att öka det ekonomiska välståndet om kvinnor, och utrikesfödda kvinnor mer specifikt, deltar på arbetsmarknaden i lika stor uträckning som män. Vidare tjänar svenska kvinnor mindre än män och inkomstgapet mellan kvinnor och män har inte minskat de senaste 20 åren.

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se