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Global Macro Comment

The lay of "The Land"

What do we really know about inflation? The state of the art was recently laid out by top academics and central bank economists at the "Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics" conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In this comment we give a first-hand account of what was discussed in "The Land". The conference gave greater insight into the anchoring of inflation expectations at central banks' targets, mixed with a new understanding of inflation fundamentals. Change is often hard work, but policymakers would be smart to embrace these latest insights.

Global Macro Comment - The lay of "The Land"

Johan Löf

Senior Economist

Sweden

jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2018-06-19

Fast Comment Sweden

2018-06-15

Global Macro Comment

2018-06-14

Fast Comment Sweden

Latest publications in

Fast Comment Norway — Regional Network: the growth outlook remains favourable

  1. Small changes to the growth signals...
  2. ...suggesting mainland GDP growth of 2.6 percent this year, matching Norges Bank's estimate
  3. Norges Bank’s assessment of a rate rise in September remains intact

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Denmark — Inflation ticks up for a second consecutive month

  1. Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent m-o-m in May - weaker than expected
  2. Annual inflation ticked up from 0.8 to 1.1 percent
  3. Inflation is still relatively low but should move up further

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

UK Comment — UK manufacturing production falls the most since Oct 2012

  1. Industrial production down 0.8% and manufacturing down 1.4% in April
  2. Widespread weakness throughout the manufacturing sector
  3. Sentiment suggests some short-term improvement but indicates weak longer-term trend

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Core inflation far below Norges Bank’s estimates

  1. CPI-ATE at 1.2 percent, vs. Norges Bank 1.6 percent
  2. We still believe Norges Bank will hike its policy rate in September...
  3. ...but the isolated effect of softer inflation is for a lowering of the rate path

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Sweden — Preview: Housing prices in May

  1. We expect stable prices in May
  2. Calmer market overall, but with local variations
  3. No rebound in sales activity expected in May

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist | hebo12@handelsbanken.se