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Global Macro Forecast - Meagre shelter for the global economy

  • Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
  • Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
  • Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

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Aktuell ekonomi


Swedish Rate Wrap



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Fast Comment Norway — Core inflation expected to have eased slightly in March

  1. We expect the CPI-ATE at 2.5 percent in March, slightly down from 2.6 percent in February
  2. Norges Bank is expecting 2.6 percent
  3. Deviation not significant; we continue to expect the next rate hike to come in September

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — The manufacturing trend has slowed a bit, but still positive

  1. Manufacturing output down 0.3 percent in February, below expectations of +0.3 percent
  2. Second consecutive decline, although the 3-month change remains positive
  3. Rising petroleum investments giving a temporary boost; slowing expected from next year

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — Housing prices continued to show a moderate positive trend in March

  1. Housing prices rose 0.3 percent in March (seasonally adjusted)
  2. Developments in Oslo were somewhat stronger, with 1.0 percent growth (S.A.)
  3. Well in line with Norges Bank's forecasts

Halfdan Grangård, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment China — Strong sign of stimulus kicking in

  1. Both PMIs jumped in a rare synchronised jump
  2. Growth should rebound in Q2
  3. Structural weakening to continue

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — Registered unemployment fell further in March, as expected

  1. Registered unemployment down as expected; broadly in line with Norges Bank as well
  2. The adjusted unemployment rate now stands at 2.3 pct, as NB has expected for Q1 and Q2
  3. We stick to our call for the next rate hike to come in September

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |