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Macro Comment China Trade tensions on everyone’s lips

Our recent investor trip did not make us any more worried about an escalation of the trade war between China and the US. China will likely not devalue its currency or dump US treasuries, and China's economy is doing quite OK, even as credit and, in particular, shadow banking are being curbed. The recent opening up of China's bond market for foreigners looks like an attractive investment opportunity, in our view.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen

Senior Economist

Latin America and China

bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Latest analyses

2018-04-23

Macro Comment China

2018-04-23

Morgenmelding Danmark

2018-04-20

Makroøkonomisk Ugefokus

Latest publications in

Fast Comment Sweden — Inflation in March: Riksbank to delay rate hike

  1. Inflation back in line with Riksbank forecast
  2. Driven by surprisingly high energy prices; underlying inflation also looks decent
  3. Riksbank to delay rate hike, as core inflation disappointment tips the balance

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Preview: House prices in March (Monday)

  1. First month after the implementation of the stricter amortisation requirements
  2. We expect a fall in house prices in March, but continue to expect a soft landing
  3. New construction continues to add supply to the market

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist | hebo12@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — UK industrial production disappointed in February

  1. Production lifted by energy and weighed down by manufacturing and mining
  2. Bad weather in Feb. did not affect manufacturing numbers, according to the ONS
  3. Underlying manufacturing momentum seems to have slowed in Q1

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Finland — Industrial activity still robust, but likely maturing

  1. Industrial production grew by 3.4 percent in y-o-y terms, but decreased from the previous month
  2. Exports still growing strongly
  3. Robust growth in industrial activity, but we see signs of softening

Janne Ronkanen, Senior Economist | jaro06@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — CPI-ATE continues to run below central bank estimates

  1. CPI-ATE was 1.2 percent in March, down from 1.4 percent in February and well below expectations
  2. HCMe and Norges Bank forecast was 1.5 percent in March; consensus was 1.4 percent
  3. Deviation explained by prices for imported consumer goods

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Denmark — Exports disappoint again

  1. Exports of goods fell 0.4 percent m-o-m in February; fourth month in a row without improvement
  2. Imports of goods fell 3.4 percent m-o-m; surplus on the trade balance picked up from DKK 5.6bn to 7.0bn
  3. Disappointing that exports do not appear to be benefiting more from improvement in global economy

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk