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Global Macro Forecast - High on risk, low on ammo

  • Downside risks burdening global growth
  • Consumers holding up
  • Low interest rates are the new normal
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Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

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Global Macro Forecast


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Global macro forecast


08 Oct

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Fast Comment Norway — Still muted trend in retail spending; income gains partly feeding into higher savings instead

  1. Retail spending was flat in August, as expected; soft trend
  2. In the absence of a significant rise in September, retail spending will have expanded by just 0.1 percent in Q3
  3. Income gains partly feeding into higher savings instead

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment China — Surprisingly strong manufacturing PMIs

  1. Third increase in a row of Markit’s PMI, whereas official PMI remained below 50
  2. We see a further slowdown on the cards
  3. No effect from factory closings

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Retail sales in August and housing prices in September

  1. The same old story: moderately positive housing price trend
  2. Consumption of services holding up well, but retail spending is still moderate
  3. Overall consumption growth running below growth in disposable real incomes; higher savings

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — The unemployment rate continues to level out

  1. Small changes in registered unemployment, as expected
  2. Outcome perfectly in line with Norges Bank; neutral to the key policy rate path
  3. The labour market is not as tight as might be expected; no need for further rate hikes, in our view

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Sweden — Retail sales continue upbeat trend, supporting GDP, but dangers are lurking

  1. Retail sales unchanged in August after only 3 negative prints over the past 12 months
  2. But households increasingly worried amid economic slowdown, albeit exacerbated by the recent unemployment alarm that we consider to be overblown
  3. And current tailwinds from tourists' and cross-boarder shoppers' spending can quickly vanish

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |