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Global Macro Forecast - Meagre shelter for the global economy

  • Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
  • Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
  • Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

chny09@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2018-11-22

Aktuell ekonomi

2018-09-13

Swedish Rate Wrap

2018-09-13

Ränterullen

Latest publications in

Macro Comment Norway — Norges Bank to hike and front-load

Despite international turbulence, domestic momentum is solid, in particular due to strong petroleum ac-tivities. Consequently, we believe Norges Bank will raise the policy rate in June and bring the next hike forward to this autumn. However, the longer end of the policy rate trajectory should be lowered further, due to increased global risks.

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK labour market remarkably resilient despite Brexit

  1. Unemployment unchanged and wage growth slightly stronger in April
  2. Economic activity is easing, GDP and IP numbers worse than expected
  3. Brexit will eventually increase unemployment, we believe

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Regional Network: Solid near-term momentum, rate hike from Norges Bank next week

  1. Regional Network: Solid near-term momentum, revised higher since the previous round
  2. Petroleum investments and public spending boosting growth
  3. Underlines Norges Bank's case for a rate hike next week

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Core inflation no longer an argument for lifting the shorter-end of the rate path

  1. The CPI-ATE fell sharply in May (2.3 pct), well below expectations (2.6 percent)
  2. We still believe NB will hike its policy rate next week, but...
  3. ...core inflation no longer an argument for lifting the shorter end of the rate path

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment US — Employment growth shifting down and weak wage growth

  1. Weak payrolls – US economy adds only 75,000 jobs in May
  2. Moderate wage growth – we do not expect wage growth to rise much further in this business cycle
  3. Will the Fed cut rates this year?

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se