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UK Comment - Labour market numbers mixed

  • Employment growth disappointed - unemployment rate up to 4.4%
  • Timelier claims and survey measures indicate further improvement
  • Wage growth on the strong side of expectations – base effects will pull up in the short term

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UK Comment - Labour market numbers mixed


Kari Due-Andresen

Chief Economist Norway

Norway and UK

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Morgenrapport Norge

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Fast Comment Denmark — No crisis in the Danish economy

  1. Preliminary GDP indicator showed growth of 0.9 percent q-o-q in Q4 last year
  2. Thus, the economy ended the year on solid footing and grew 2 percent in 2017
  3. This confirms our view that the negative growth in Q3 was a temporary glitch

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark |

UK Comment — January CPI inflation in line with the Bank of England's expectation

    CPI inflation unchanged at 3.0 percent in January, CPI core inflation up to 2.7 percent from 2.5 percent in DecemberUK CPI inflation was unchanged at 3.0 percent y-o-y in January. This was in line with the Bank of England’s expectation, but slightly higher than the consensus expectation of 2.9 percent. Core inflation increased to 2.7 percent in January from 2.5 percent in December and beat the consensus expectation of 2.

    Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Macro Comment China — CNY should weaken soon as USD gains strength again

As the USD regains strength generally, we expect the CNY to weaken versus the USD, as we stick to our forecast of a stable effective Chinese exchange rate. From late 2018, we expect a stronger CNY, amid re-newed USD weakness.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Sweden — Preview: Housing prices for January (Wednesday)

  1. Bear in mind the seasonal variation
  2. Housing prices seem to have continued to fall in January (S.A.)
  3. Similarities with buying and selling behaviour in 2013-14

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist |

UK Comment — Mixed monthly data from the UK

    Industrial production down by 1.3% in December, but manufacturing up by 0.3%UK industrial production fell by 1.3 percent in December, after growing by 0.3 percent in November (revised from 0.4 percent). The consensus expectation for December was -0.9 percent. The monthly fall was the first since March 2017 and the largest fall since September 2012. However, the only downward contribution came from mining and quarrying, which decreased by 19.

    Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |