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Global Macro Forecast - Global tensions - but no recession

  • Challenging road ahead for the Nordics
  • Monetary policy will ease but not remove the pain
  • Markets will remain uneasy

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Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

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Fast Comment Norway — Norges Bank keeps policy rate unchanged at 1.25%, still sees rate hike this year despite global risks

  1. Norges Bank sees real economy evolving as expected, but inflation on the weak side
  2. Global risks bring uncertainty regarding September, but Norges Bank still sees December as an option for a rate hike
  3. We believe Norges Bank will have to call off further hikes

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Fast Comment Sweden — Robust July inflation a small comfort for the Riksbank

  1. Headline inflation eases, but stays above the Riksbank's forecast amid still-strong underlying inflation
  2. But the tide is turning, as the cooling economy erodes the 2020 inflation outlook
  3. Hence, we stick to our call that the Riksbank will be forced to cancel its rate-rise plan

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment China — Growth slowdown resumes

  1. Across-the-board deterioration of July data
  2. June uptick was only temporary
  3. Growth headed for further declines

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist |

UK Comment — GDP contracts in Q2

  1. GDP fell 0.2 percent in Q2 vs. expectations (market and BoE) of zero growth
  2. Falling activity in IP and construction, marked deceleration in services growth
  3. Increased risk of no-deal Brexit will weigh on activity ahead

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Fast Comment Norway — Norges Bank preview: No change in August

  1. Policy rate likely to be kept unchanged; Will there be signals? Most likely not
  2. Outlook deteriorating, trends on the weak side of Norges Bank's expectation
  3. We believe Norges Bank will hike no further

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |