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Macro Comment China Trade tensions on everyone’s lips

Our recent investor trip did not make us any more worried about an escalation of the trade war between China and the US. China will likely not devalue its currency or dump US treasuries, and China's economy is doing quite OK, even as credit and, in particular, shadow banking are being curbed. The recent opening up of China's bond market for foreigners looks like an attractive investment opportunity, in our view.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen

Senior Economist

Latin America and China

bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Latest analyses

2018-04-23

Macro Comment China

2018-04-23

Morgenmelding Danmark

2018-04-20

Makroøkonomisk Ugefokus

Latest publications in

Fast Comment Norway — Slight growth in manufacturing output

  1. Manufacturing output up 0.2 percent in February; weaker than expected
  2. Trend is still positive, but momentum is weaker than expected
  3. Note that some sentiment indicators (PMI) have fallen, signalling reduced momentum

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment US — Employment disappoints

  1. Payrolls rise by 103,000 people in March; weaker than expected
  2. Unempoyment rate unchanged at 4.1%; wage growth picks up to 2.7% (2.6%)
  3. Weak report does not alter our outlook for three more Fed hikes this year

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

Economic Calendar — April 9-13

Kiran Sakaria, Junior Strategist | kisa02@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Preview of March inflation

  1. Expect a surge in inflation...
  2. ...but the spike is temporary, as the CPI is once again riding the airfares rollercoaster
  3. Underlying inflation on an upward trend, giving the Riksbank an opportunity to stay the course at April meeting

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — Modest housing price increase in March; close to Norges Bank's forecast

  1. Housing prices increased by 0.2 percent in March, close to Norges Bank's expectations
  2. Solid improvement in Oslo, but weaker trends elsewhere
  3. Some uncertainty remains, but we still believe the housing market has passed its trough

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — PMI surveys signal slower GDP growth in Q1

  1. Services sentiment much weaker than expected, albeit partly weather-related
  2. New orders, activity and employment weaker
  3. We anticipate that the BoE's expectations are mostly unchanged; we continue to expect a rate hike in May

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no