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Macro Comment UK - Upward revision contingent on political pragmatism

Stronger-than-expected short-term momentum suggests that our GDP estimate for 2018 might be too low and our unemployment estimates for 2018-19 a little high. A more hawkish Bank of England and short-term momentum lead us to expect a rate hike in May. However, our expectation for a hike is dependent upon the assumption that the UK and the EU are able to strike a transition deal. For this to happen it would take some serious political pragmatism on both sides, but history has shown us that this often kicks in at the eleventh hour.

Read our fast comment here:

Macro Comment UK - Upward revision contingent on political pragmatism

 

Kari Due-Andresen

Chief Economist Norway

Norway and UK

kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Latest analyses

2018-02-16

Macro Comment UK

2018-02-15

Morgenrapport Norge

2018-02-13

UK Comment

Latest publications in

Fast Comment Sweden — Business sector production in December

  1. Swedish economy expanded at robust pace in the last quarter
  2. Production data indicates faster GDP than our forecast, but does not take all factors into account
  3. Amidst the equity market doom and gloom, Swedish GDP growth set to remain healthy in the near term

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — House prices fell further in January; down 0.4 percent m-o-m (S.A)

  1. House prices down by 0.4 percent in Jan, following -0.1 percent in Dec
  2. Average monthly decline in line with the same pace observed since April last year
  3. Fairly broad-based decline in S.A terms in January, but Oslo appears to have improved

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — PMIs signal weaker start to 2018

  1. Services PMI down to 53.0 in January from 54.2 in December (consensus 54.1)
  2. Sentiment pulled down by current business, while future expectations stay upbeat
  3. PMI composite down to 53.5 in January, the weakest level since August 2016

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment US — Highest wage growth since 2009

  1. Stronger job growth trend
  2. Unemployment unchanged but…
  3. Watch the wage growth

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Manufacturing output, core inflation and Mainland GDP

  1. Manufacturing output trending upwards
  2. Core inflation expected at 1.3 percent in January, slightly down from 1.4 percent in December
  3. 4Q mainland GDP growth estimated at 0.7 percent q-o-q, up from 0.6 percent in Q3

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no