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Global Macro Forecast - Meagre shelter for the global economy

  • Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
  • Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
  • Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

chny09@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2018-11-22

Aktuell ekonomi

2018-09-13

Swedish Rate Wrap

2018-09-13

Ränterullen

Latest publications in

Fast Comment Finland — Consumer confidence weakened to a near-term low

  1. Consumer confidence fell in June - CCI index renewed in 5/2019
  2. Two new components in the CCI index
  3. Subdued private consumption reflects increased consumer pessimism

Janne Ronkanen, Senior Economist | jaro06@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — Downward correction in retail spending; trend still positive

  1. Retail spending down 1.3 percent in May, largely as expected
  2. But given the solid increase in April, the outlook for Q2 as a whole remains positive
  3. Spending supported by growth in real disposable incomes (employment growth as well as real wage gains)

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Survey unemployment pulled down by a sharp drop in the labour force

  1. LFS unemployment down to 3.2 pct in April, expected 3.5 pct
  2. Details less impressive: The latest decline explained by a sharp drop in the labour force
  3. Probably due to noise; we pay more attention to the registered figures, due this Friday

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Finland — Strong labour market improvement is behind us – stabilisation ahead

  1. Unemployment rate (SA) remained at 6.6 percent in May
  2. Employment rate edged up to 72.6 percent
  3. We expect the unemployment rate to bottom out in 2019-20

Janne Ronkanen, Senior Economist | jaro06@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Labour market figures and retail spending

  1. Unemployment trending lower on the back of still-solid employment growth
  2. Retail sales probably declined in May...
  3. ...but owing to a solid gain in April, the trend is still positive

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Dagens morgenrapport

  1. S&P til nye høyder, understøttet av forventet rentekutt i USA; noe dempet av spenningen mellom USA og Iran
  2. Norges Bank leverte som vi bestilte i går; kortenden opp og langenden ned, igjen
  3. Markert kronestyrking på beskjeden fra Norges Bank

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no