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Macro Comment Sweden

As safe as houses?

We expect upward price pressure from strong employment and income conditions to counterbalance increased supply and rising borrowing costs, resulting in a stable price trend ahead. Housing starts are likely to continue falling next year, but we think it will stabilise thereafter, given the housing shortage and strong household finances. The high number of projects up for completion in 2019 could pose risks to prices and bring further pain to smaller developers, especially given limited scope to change regional focus or switch to rental accommodation. However, the relatively low importance of smaller developers to the wider economy should mean that any fallout is contained, in our view.


Helena Bornevall 
Johan Löf 

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Macro Comment Norway — Norges Bank set to lower its policy rate path again

In September, Norges Bank surprised analysts by lowering its policy rate path. It seemed global uncertain-ties had made the central bank reassess its outlook for the Norwegian economy. In December, we believe Norges Bank will lower its policy rate trajectory again, effectively cancelling one of the six rate hikes it had planned for the coming three years.

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Fast Comment Sweden — Preview of November CPI: Riksbank target reached, but underlying inflation continues to frustrate

  1. Inflation stays below the Riksbank forecast...
  2. ...But outlook for 2019 remains positive, so will it matter?
  3. More risks than usual to this November-CPI?

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |

Macro Comment China — We expect the CNY to strengthen gradually

Following a marked CNY weakening over the summer, we now expect the CNY to strengthen gradually, as we believe China's authorities will stick to their goal of keeping the CNY "basically stable".

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — Housing prices down 0.5 percent in November; somewhat weaker than expected but too early to call the start of a down trend

  1. Housing prices at -0.5 percent m-o-m in November, seasonally adjusted
  2. Oslo a touch weaker: -0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted
  3. Too early to conclude that the trend has shifted downwards

Halfdan Grangård, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Sweden — Business sector production in October: Growth starts Q4 in surprisingly strong fashion

  1. Production growth rebound; a tentative pickup after bleak Q3
  2. Services revised upward and manufacturing appears robust
  3. Industrial orders add to our view that economic boom has more to give

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — Regional Network: Solid output growth; supporting two rate hikes in 2019

  1. Growth signals revised marginally upwards; better than generally expected
  2. Offsetting weaker GDP prints released earlier this year
  3. Supporting two rate hikes in 2019

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |