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Global Macro Comment

The lay of "The Land"

What do we really know about inflation? The state of the art was recently laid out by top academics and central bank economists at the "Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics" conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In this comment we give a first-hand account of what was discussed in "The Land". The conference gave greater insight into the anchoring of inflation expectations at central banks' targets, mixed with a new understanding of inflation fundamentals. Change is often hard work, but policymakers would be smart to embrace these latest insights.

Global Macro Comment - The lay of "The Land"

Johan Löf

Senior Economist

Sweden

jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2018-06-19

Fast Comment Sweden

2018-06-15

Global Macro Comment

2018-06-14

Fast Comment Sweden

Latest publications in

UK Comment — UK manufacturing production falls the most since Oct 2012

  1. Industrial production down 0.8% and manufacturing down 1.4% in April
  2. Widespread weakness throughout the manufacturing sector
  3. Sentiment suggests some short-term improvement but indicates weak longer-term trend

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Core inflation far below Norges Bank’s estimates

  1. CPI-ATE at 1.2 percent, vs. Norges Bank 1.6 percent
  2. We still believe Norges Bank will hike its policy rate in September...
  3. ...but the isolated effect of softer inflation is for a lowering of the rate path

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Sweden — Preview: Housing prices in May

  1. We expect stable prices in May
  2. Calmer market overall, but with local variations
  3. No rebound in sales activity expected in May

Helena Bornevall, Senior Economist | hebo12@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Core inflation (May) and Norges Bank’s Regional Network (Q2)

  1. Core inflation closer to Norges Bank's estimate
  2. Regional Network pointing to still-solid GDP growth, in our view...
  3. ...but the key question is: have we been too optimistic about growth in 2018?

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Manufacturing output rose slightly more than expected in April

  1. Manufacturing output rose 1.1 percent in April vs. expectations of 0.7 percent
  2. A positive start to Q2 following a surprisingly weak performance in Q1
  3. We maintain a positive outlook

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no