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Macro Comment Sweden

As safe as houses?

We expect upward price pressure from strong employment and income conditions to counterbalance increased supply and rising borrowing costs, resulting in a stable price trend ahead. Housing starts are likely to continue falling next year, but we think it will stabilise thereafter, given the housing shortage and strong household finances. The high number of projects up for completion in 2019 could pose risks to prices and bring further pain to smaller developers, especially given limited scope to change regional focus or switch to rental accommodation. However, the relatively low importance of smaller developers to the wider economy should mean that any fallout is contained, in our view.


Helena Bornevall 
Johan Löf 

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  2. Did Black Friday offer any boost to retail spending?
  3. We factor in some rise at least, as we expect retail spending rose by 0.6 percent m-o-m

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment China — An early (stimuli) Christmas gift

  1. China announces further economic stimuli
  2. Should alleviate financial markets’ concerns
  3. Growth target not yet announced

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — Registered unemployment in line with expectations

  1. Unemployment at 2.3/2.4 percent, unadjusted/seasonally adjusted
  2. In line with general expectations, including Norges Bank
  3. Neutral to the key policy rate path

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

UK Comment — Bank of England in Brexit wait-and-see mode

  1. Policy rate unchanged at 0.75%; QE program also unchanged
  2. BoE says future monetary policy will depend on Brexit and could be in either direction
  3. We believe Brexit will force the BoE to stay on hold for the next two years

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Fast Comment Sweden — Riksbank monetary policy decision

  1. Dovish hike, but the Riksbank board is not unified in its decision
  2. Krona strengthens after opinions were split ahead of the December announcement
  3. We change our forecast to 0.0 percent at year-end 2019; risk for no hike at all

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |