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Global Macro Forecast - Global economy on shaky ground

  • A downturn is imminent
  • Time for politicians to step up
  • Interest rates remain low

   

Global Konjunkturprognos - Världsekonomin på skakig grund

 

  • Nu vänder konjunkturen ned
  • Upp till bevis för politikerna
  • Räntorna förblir låga
   

Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

chny09@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2018-11-22

Aktuell ekonomi

2018-09-13

Swedish Rate Wrap

2018-09-13

Ränterullen

Latest publications in

Fast Comment US — Weak payrolls, but labour market conditions still tightening

  1. Weak employment growth, but labour market conditions still tightening
  2. Wage pressure building
  3. We expect weaker growth and rising unemployment to prompt the Fed to cut rates next year

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Preview of February CPI: no immediate rebound after lower-than-expected inflation last month

  1. Inflation expected sideways at 2 percent, while underlying inflation stays muted
  2. Unusually large risks to February estimate, after broad range of downside surprises last month
  3. Mopping up the package tour mess, part II?

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Norges Bank’s Regional Network (Q1), and core inflation in February

  1. Regional Network: near-term momentum holding up well
  2. Core inflation close to Norges Bank’s estimate
  3. Rate hike in March

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

EMU Comment — ECB postpones rate hikes, announces TLTRO3

  1. ECB changes rate hike guidance, sees rates on hold througout 2019
  2. TLTRO3 announced
  3. Softer than expected

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist | clma02@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — Manufacturing output: slight decline in January, but still robust upward trend

  1. Manufacturing output slightly down by 0.2 percent in January, somewhat weaker than expected
  2. But upward trend remains intact; manufacturing up 1.3 percent over past three months
  3. In particular driven by increasing activity among oil-supplying industries

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Macro Comment China — China lowers growth target and eases fiscal policy

By lowering the growth target and at the same time announcing growth stimulus, the authorities clearly acknowledge the current weak stance of the economy. Renewed focus on fiscal instead of monetary policy easing bodes well for the fight against excessive credit.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk