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Global Macro Forecast - Global tensions - but no recession

  • Challenging road ahead for the Nordics
  • Monetary policy will ease but not remove the pain
  • Markets will remain uneasy


Link to full report

Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

chny09@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2019-08-21

Global macro forecast

2019-08-21

Global konjunkturprognos

2018-11-22

Aktuell ekonomi

Morgonrapport

16 Sep

16 Sep

17 Sep

18 Sep

Igår

Latest publications in

Fast Comment Norway — Dagens morgenrapport

  1. Boris Johnson med nytt og ventet nederlag i Parlamentet; nøkkeltall demper frykt for umiddelbar rese-sjon
  2. Se opp for svenske inflasjonstall kl.9.30 i dag
  3. Hjemme: KPI-JAE lavere enn ventet av N. Bank; Regionalt nettverk trolig litt ned, men fortsatt solid vekst

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Morgenrapport som fast comment (tekniske problemer på morgenkvisten)

  1. Jobbveksten i USA bremser ned; men ikke mer enn at det holder tritt med befolkningsveksten
  2. Fokus på ESB denne uken; hvor omfattende stimulanser vil de iverksette nå?
  3. Her hjemme: Vekstsignalene (reg.nettverk) er nok litt ned, men fortsatt solide; KPI-JAE i tråd med NB

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Sweden — Week ahead: CPI August after Riksbank surprise; GDP to make us less confident in household sector?

  1. After yesterday's Riksbank surprise, inflation prints have resurfaced as key to policy monitoring
  2. August CPI report to sit well with the Riksbank, but September could be the start of a different story
  3. GDP Q2 includes review of entire national accounts: households' economy to appear less solid than thought

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment Eurozone — ECB: Curb your enthusiasm

Fundamentals indicate a need for more rate cuts, but that is hampered by concerns about negative rates. Forward guidance and tiering are unlikely to make much of a difference. Another round of QE requires a shift to relatively riskier assets, and faces significant external and internal obstacles. Built-up market disappointments have reached levels not seen since past crisis episodes. The ECB's policy limitations and lack of fiscal support mean the inflation target is unlikely to be met by the end of 2021.

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist | erme03@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Regional Network and core inflation

  1. Regional Network: solid short-term output signals, even though expectations may have slid a little
  2. Core inflation broadly in line with NB’s estimate
  3. The key interest rate may have peaked already

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no