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Global Macro Forecast

Världen spretar

  • Geopolitiska risker dominerar
  • USA och Kina styr världskonjunkturen
  • Konjunkturen byter karaktär - avmattning på gång

 

A diverging world

  • Geopolitical risks dominate
  • US and China dictating the pace
  • Shift in economic cycle imminent - slowdown in the pipeline
  
  

Latest publications in

Fast Comment Sweden — Political deadlock after inconclusive election

  1. The ruling center-left bloc and center-right Alliance are neck and neck
  2. Tricky to form a government; strong, decisive government unlikely
  3. Limited market reaction, but in the longer term the macroeconomic effects could be greater

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment US — Strong labour market keeps Fed on track for further rate hikes

  1. Employment growth continues to go from strength to strength
  2. Wage pressure building
  3. We expect the Fed to continue to raise rates once a quarter

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

UK Comment — Preview Bank of England: Policy on hold in September

  1. Inflation and GDP trends seem broadly on track with the BoE forecast
  2. Brexit uncertainty to prevent policy tightening ahead

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Denmark — Warm summer was a boon for industrial production

  1. Industrial production rose 1.4 percent m-o-m in July; not far from our expectation (1.0 percent)
  2. Warm summer lifted production in the food and drink industry
  3. Industry seems resilient to global uncertainties so far

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment Norway — Manufacturing output showing a clearer upward trend

  1. Manufacturing output increased by 0.9 percent in July
  2. Close to expectations; our forecast and consensus was for +1 percent
  3. Manufacturing output showing a clearer upward trend

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no