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UK Comment - Labour market numbers mixed

  • Employment growth disappointed - unemployment rate up to 4.4%
  • Timelier claims and survey measures indicate further improvement
  • Wage growth on the strong side of expectations – base effects will pull up in the short term

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UK Comment - Labour market numbers mixed


Kari Due-Andresen

Chief Economist Norway

Norway and UK

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UK Comment


Macro Comment UK


Morgenrapport Norge

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Fast Comment Finland — Industrial output rose by 3.3 percent in 2017

  1. Industrial production increased by 4.2 percent y-o-y in December
  2. New manufacturing orders fell by 4.3 percent y-o-y in December
  3. Strong year in 2017, but goods exports showed some signs of softening toward year end

Janne Ronkanen, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — Mainland GDP growth still stronger than trend

  1. Mainland GDP growth at 0.6% in Q4 after 0.7% in Q3 (revised from 0.6%)
  2. Growth pulled down by oil-related activities in Q4, but should be temporary
  3. Development well in line with Norges Bank's forecast

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

CPI-ATE clearly undershoots expectations in January —

  1. CPI-ATE at 1.1 percent in January, down from 1.4 percent in December
  2. Clearly weaker than Norges Bank's estimate of 1.4 percent
  3. Air fares and clothing and shoes pulled down the y-o-y rate

Halfdan Grangård, Senior Economist |

UK Comment — A more hawkish tone from the Bank of England

  1. Policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and QE programme also unchanged. Decision was unanimous
  2. Forecast for real economy revised up
  3. MPC expects policy tightening sooner and to a greater extent

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Fast Comment Norway — Sharp increase in manufacturing output in December

  1. Manufacturing output up by 1.3 percent in December, following 0.3 percent in November
  2. The quarterly pace rose substantially in Q4
  3. Supports our case for an above-consensus reading for mainland GDP (due Friday morning)

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Sweden — Business sector production in December

  1. Swedish economy expanded at robust pace in the last quarter
  2. Production data indicates faster GDP than our forecast, but does not take all factors into account
  3. Amidst the equity market doom and gloom, Swedish GDP growth set to remain healthy in the near term

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |