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Global Macro Forecast - Meagre shelter for the global economy

  • Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
  • Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
  • Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

chny09@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2018-11-22

Aktuell ekonomi

2018-09-13

Swedish Rate Wrap

2018-09-13

Ränterullen

Latest publications in

Fast Comment Sweden — Week ahead: Expect more proof of a cooling economy

  1. March business sector production to confirm that GDP growth spurt toward end of last year was temporary
  2. Leading indicators tell us growth will continue to decelerate ahead, as we have forecast
  3. In other news: Will minutes from Riksbank's April meeting shed light on the rebirth of a dovish majority?

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — Inflation higher than expected; but mind the Easter effect

  1. Core inflation back up at a six-month high
  2. Another source of comfort for the ECB

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment Norway — Registered unemployment falls to 2.3%, as expected

  1. Registered unemployment down to 2.3% in April, from 2.4% in March
  2. Labour market trend in line or slightly weaker than Norges Bank’s expectation
  3. Norges Bank will push rate rise to September

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Housing prices and core inflation in April

  1. Housing market: Still positive price outlook, albeit still modest
  2. Core inflation close enough to Norges Bank
  3. We maintain our call for a rate hike in September

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Preview Norges Bank - no change in May

    Policy rate to be kept unchanged at 1.0%Norges Bank’s Executive Board will meet on Thursday, May 9 to decide on monetary policy. There is no press conference after the May meeting; the central bank’s policy rate decision will be followed by a brief press release and a short assessment from the board about economic developments since March. It is as good as certain that the policy rate will be kept unchanged, at 1.

    Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — BoE in wait-and-see mode

  1. No change to policy; the votes were unanimous
  2. Forecast revisions mixed
  3. Brexit will prevent further hikes from the BoE, in our view

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no