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Global Macro Forecast - Meagre shelter for the global economy

  • Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
  • Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
  • Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

chny09@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2018-11-22

Aktuell ekonomi

2018-09-13

Swedish Rate Wrap

2018-09-13

Ränterullen

Latest publications in

Fast Comment US — Fed leaves rates on hold; we expect the next move to be a rate cut

  1. Fed leaves fund rates unchanged, but the interest on excess reserves rate (IOER) was lowered
  2. Minor tweaks to press statement
  3. We expect the Fed to leave rates on hold this year, with the next step to be rate cuts next year

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — Better growth and unemployment numbers than expected

  1. GDP growth has stabilised
  2. Unemployment rate declined another notch
  3. The ECB might find some comfort in the numbers

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Economy on track for stimulus-driven rebound despite PMI decline

  1. Economy on track for stimulus-driven rebound despite PMI decline
  2. Growth should still improve in Q2

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment Norway — Still weak trend in retail spending; LFS unemployment higher than expected by NB

  1. Retail sales up 0.6 pct in Mar, following a severe drop in Feb; slightly negative pace in Q1
  2. LFS unemployment unchanged at 3.8 pct in Feb, higher than anticipated by NB
  3. We still believe it is too soon for Norges Bank to hike its policy rate in Jun; we stick to Sep

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Macro Comment Sweden — Spotlight on fiscal policy as the economy slows

We expect a slowdown in Sweden and note that there will be little monetary policy ammunition left to stabilise the economy. Meanwhile, low public debt levels are creating the conditions for fiscal policy to take the lead. What is more, fiscal policy stimulus measures are more effective in a low interest rate envi-ronment of the type we have now. However,  the fiscal policy framework will limit the scope for action. Also, the range of effective fiscal policy stimulus measures that can be implemented quickly and at the right time will be limited. Therefore, there is a clear risk that stabilisation policy will be less robust than normal. We believe this could open the door to more unconventional economic policy, if the downturn becomes deep or prolonged.

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se