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Macro Comment UK - Upward revision contingent on political pragmatism

Stronger-than-expected short-term momentum suggests that our GDP estimate for 2018 might be too low and our unemployment estimates for 2018-19 a little high. A more hawkish Bank of England and short-term momentum lead us to expect a rate hike in May. However, our expectation for a hike is dependent upon the assumption that the UK and the EU are able to strike a transition deal. For this to happen it would take some serious political pragmatism on both sides, but history has shown us that this often kicks in at the eleventh hour.

Read our fast comment here:

Macro Comment UK - Upward revision contingent on political pragmatism

 

Kari Due-Andresen

Chief Economist Norway

Norway and UK

kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Latest analyses

2018-02-16

Macro Comment UK

2018-02-15

Morgenrapport Norge

2018-02-13

UK Comment

Latest publications in

Fast Comment Norway — Significant decline in registered unemployment

  1. Registered unemployment at 2.6 percent (unadjusted) vs. market expectations of 2.7 percent
  2. Seasonally adjusted rate declined to 2.37 percent, down from 2.49 percent in December
  3. Significantly below Norges Bank's short-term estimate

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: House prices for January (Monday)

  1. Revised figures showing a levelling out; better than indicated by the previous housing index
  2. However, prices in Oslo has continued to decline (S.A), but details have improved
  3. We continue to argue for a soft landing

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — New signals from the BoE?

  1. We expect no change to monetary policy
  2. GDP has been stronger than expected, but labour market and inflation broadly in line
  3. BoE will offer new take on Brexit uncertainty

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Manufacturing sentiment slides further in January as price pressures intensify

  1. New orders and output weigh on sentiment
  2. Input prices rising at the fastest rate in 11 months
  3. Based on past form, sentiment suggests slower output growth in the near term

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment US — Fed leaves rates on hold, door open for March hike

  1. Fed leaves rates on hold as expected
  2. Minor tweaks to press statement - door open for March hike
  3. Further upside to market rates

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist | clma02@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — Credit indicator growth much higher than anticipated

  1. C2 sharply up to 6.3 percent in December, from 5.8 percent in November
  2. Driven by a sharp increase in debt growth among non-financial corporations
  3. Household debt growth also higher than anticipated

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no