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Global Macro Comment

The lay of "The Land"

What do we really know about inflation? The state of the art was recently laid out by top academics and central bank economists at the "Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics" conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In this comment we give a first-hand account of what was discussed in "The Land". The conference gave greater insight into the anchoring of inflation expectations at central banks' targets, mixed with a new understanding of inflation fundamentals. Change is often hard work, but policymakers would be smart to embrace these latest insights.

Global Macro Comment - The lay of "The Land"

Johan Löf

Senior Economist


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Fast Comment Sweden


Global Macro Comment


Fast Comment Sweden

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Fast Comment Sweden — Energy price surge and second consecutive on-target year for the Riksbank; preview of May inflation

  1. Inflation above 2 percent... again
  2. The energy price rise is no longer a temporary nuisance for the Riksbank
  3. Incoming data supports our long-standing forecast for rising underlying inflation

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — House prices well above Norges Bank's short-term estimates

  1. House prices rose by 1.1 percent in May (S.A)
  2. Well above central bank's short-term estimates
  3. Norges Bank will see this as further reason to raise the policy rate in September, in our view

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

UK Comment — Services PMI stronger than expected in May

  1. Services sentiment pulled up by current business activity
  2. Growth in new business in the services sector remains weak
  3. PMIs indicate modest rebound in GDP growth in Q2

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Fast Comment US — 'Whoop, whoop' goes the labour market

  1. Payrolls up by 223,000 persons in May, above expectations
  2. Unemployment rate falls to 3.8 percent, the lowest since 1969
  3. Fed on track to raise rates in June despite any trade war worries

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark |

Fast Comment Sweden — Week ahead: rebound in orders no reason for over excitement

  1. Production growth trend starting to slow
  2. Construction sector weighs on otherwise healthy growth
  3. Boost to orders temporary; keep your eyes on the trend

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |