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Global Macro Forecast - Global economy on shaky ground

  • A downturn is imminent
  • Time for politicians to step up
  • Interest rates remain low

   

Global Konjunkturprognos - Världsekonomin på skakig grund

 

  • Nu vänder konjunkturen ned
  • Upp till bevis för politikerna
  • Räntorna förblir låga
   

Christina Nyman

Head of Forecasting

Global Research

chny09@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2018-11-22

Aktuell ekonomi

2018-09-13

Swedish Rate Wrap

2018-09-13

Ränterullen

Latest publications in

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: GDP, manufacturing output and housing prices

  1. Mainland GDP growth holding up well in the near term
  2. Upside risk to Norges Bank's near-term estimate; supporting a rate hike in March
  3. Housing market: Modestly positive outlook for Q1 (and 2019 as a whole)

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Registered unemployment continues to move sideways; well in line with Norges Bank's projections

  1. Unemployment at 2.6/2.4 percent, unadjusted/seasonally adjusted
  2. In line with Norges Bank’s and our expectation
  3. Neutral to the key policy rate path

Halfdan Grangård, Senior Economist | hagr11@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment China — Slowdown not over yet

  1. Plunge in manufacturers’ confidence
  2. More stimulus lies ahead
  3. Room for policy easing is more limited than earlier

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Growth kept the subdued pace in Q4

  1. Growth stable, despite sentiment collapse
  2. Italy in recession
  3. Moderate growth ahead; labour market to gradually turn around

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment China — Temporary stabilisation from stimuli

Growth is slowing and more headwinds lie ahead. Further stimulus measures will most likely be implemented, but the room for policy easing is more limited than earlier. We expect stimuli to stabilise growth temporarily later this year, but see growth slowing again into next year.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment US — Fed leaves rates on hold and signals no rush for further hikes

  1. Fed leaves rates unchanged, as expected
  2. Fed signals no rush to hike rates; likely to hold rates steady until at least June, we believe
  3. We expect the Fed to deliver a final hike in June, with the next step to be rate cuts next year

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se