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Macro Comment China Trade tensions on everyone’s lips

Our recent investor trip did not make us any more worried about an escalation of the trade war between China and the US. China will likely not devalue its currency or dump US treasuries, and China's economy is doing quite OK, even as credit and, in particular, shadow banking are being curbed. The recent opening up of China's bond market for foreigners looks like an attractive investment opportunity, in our view.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen

Senior Economist

Latin America and China

bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Latest analyses

2018-04-23

Macro Comment China

2018-04-23

Morgenmelding Danmark

2018-04-20

Makroøkonomisk Ugefokus

Latest publications in

Fast Comment Denmark — Solid growth in Q4, but overall picture still murky

  1. Despite a small downward revision, GDP growth ended 2017 on a strong note
  2. One-off payment from abroad still clouds the picture
  3. Labour market in good health with new drop in unemployment in February

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment Norway — Household debt growth continues to decline; below Norges Bank's estimates

  1. C2 at 6.3 percent in February vs. our estimate at 6.2 percent (consensus 6.1 percent)
  2. Upside surprise explained by non-financial corporations...
  3. ...but household debt growth has fallen even further; below Norges Bank's estimate

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — Bad weather hit construction PMI in March

  1. PMI dropped to 47.0 in March from 51.4 in February; largest fall since June 2016
  2. New orders and activity fell, while employment and future expectations provided support
  3. Bad weather aside, underlying momentum still seems very weak

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Core inflation in March (Tuesday) and manufacturing output in February (Monday)

  1. CPI-ATE probably rose to 1.5 percent in March from 1.4 percent in February
  2. In line with central bank estimates
  3. Manufacturing output likely returned to growth in February

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

UK Comment — UK manufacturing sentiment a little stronger than expected in March

  1. Sentiment sideways since January
  2. New orders and employment pulled down, while output pulled up
  3. Sentiment suggests output growth could ease somewhat further

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment China — Markit PMI declined unexpectedly

  1. Official PMI jumped, but likely a rebound from New Year's distortion
  2. We see growth slowing gradually

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk