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Global Macro Forecast - Meagre shelter for the global economy

  • Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
  • Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
  • Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

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UK Comment — UK PMIs continue to signal stagnation

  1. Services sentiment pulled up by slight improvement in new orders
  2. Overall sentiment pulled down by manufacturing and construction weakness

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Fast Comment Sweden — Swedish inflation a lingering bright spot as dark clouds form on economy's horizon

  1. May CPI report expected to show Riksbank hit its 2 percent target, again
  2. Underlying inflation has some additional upside in the near term...
  3. ...but headline CPIF inflation is under threat from an energy price meltdown

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — Euro area inflation drops to 1.2 percent, largely driven by core, services inflation

  1. The flash annual consumer price index y-o-y was 1.2 percent in May, core inflation 0.8 percent
  2. Unemployment falls to 7.7 percent in April
  3. Expect rates on hold, updated forecasts and TLTRO details ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Sweden — Business sector production surges, putting it back in line with with GDP prints

  1. The April production value index data erases the tension compared to Q1 GDP and other indicators
  2. Leading indicators continue to suggest muted growth ahead, however
  3. Overall, we stick to the view of a gradual cooling-off, meaning the Riksbank's GDP forecast for 2020 appears optimistic

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Sweden — Was poor household consumption in Q1 a temporary slump? April retail sales skyrocketed this morning

  1. Easter boost to food sales not cancelled by fall in durables, as we had expected
  2. But base case is recoil in May - Easter effect vanishes, indicators mixed and underlying weakness in overall Q1 household consumption
  3. Bottom line: we see decent consumption and retail outlook this year on the back of a strong labour market and income increases

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment China — Trade war weighs on manufacturers

  1. Manufacturing PMIs send mixed picture
  2. More stimuli to be expected

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist |