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Global Macro Comment

The lay of "The Land"

What do we really know about inflation? The state of the art was recently laid out by top academics and central bank economists at the "Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics" conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In this comment we give a first-hand account of what was discussed in "The Land". The conference gave greater insight into the anchoring of inflation expectations at central banks' targets, mixed with a new understanding of inflation fundamentals. Change is often hard work, but policymakers would be smart to embrace these latest insights.

Global Macro Comment - The lay of "The Land"

Johan Löf

Senior Economist

Sweden

jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2018-06-19

Fast Comment Sweden

2018-06-15

Global Macro Comment

2018-06-14

Fast Comment Sweden

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Fast Comment US — 'Whoop, whoop' goes the labour market

  1. Payrolls up by 223,000 persons in May, above expectations
  2. Unemployment rate falls to 3.8 percent, the lowest since 1969
  3. Fed on track to raise rates in June despite any trade war worries

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment Sweden — Week ahead: rebound in orders no reason for over excitement

  1. Production growth trend starting to slow
  2. Construction sector weighs on otherwise healthy growth
  3. Boost to orders temporary; keep your eyes on the trend

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — Registered unemployment fell in line with expectations in May

  1. Registered unemployment at 2.2 percent in May, as expected by us and consensus
  2. Still somewhat higher than anticipated by Norges Bank...
  3. ...but the deviation has narrowed, supporting a rate hike in September

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment China — Mixed picture from China’s industry

  1. Official PMI strengthens
  2. Growth should slow gradually ahead

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Inflation back in line with the ECB's target

  1. Inflation surprised on the upside, as hinted by recent price data
  2. Inflation surging above the ECB's forecast
  3. Unemployment gap is now closed

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment Finland — Strong GDP growth in Q1

  1. Q1 GDP grew by 1.2 percent q-o-q and 3.1 percent y-o-y
  2. Domestic demand made the biggest contribution to GDP growth, net exports turned negative
  3. Strong but gradually moderating growth likely to continue

Janne Ronkanen, Senior Economist | jaro06@handelsbanken.se