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Global Macro Forecast - Global tensions - but no recession

  • Challenging road ahead for the Nordics
  • Monetary policy will ease but not remove the pain
  • Markets will remain uneasy

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Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

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Fast Comment China — China takes trade war to a higher level by allowing its currency to depreciate

  1. USD/CNY allowed to move above 7
  2. The currency weapon is being utilised
  3. We now expect further weakening of the CNY

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — Unemployment surprisingly increased in July

  1. Registered unemployment up 600 people in July; up 1200, when including scheme positions
  2. Weaker than generally expected
  3. Labour market not tightening as fast as expected by Norges Bank

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Housing prices and core inflation (July)

  1. Moderate upward price trend in the housing market
  2. Housing prices running somewhat below the nominal wage growth rate
  3. CPI-ATE close enough to Norges Bank’s short-term estimates

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

UK Comment — BoE on hold as Brexit clouds outlook

  1. As expected, no change to monetary policy - policy rate kept at 0.75 percent
  2. Slower growth expected in the near term. Longer-term estimates affected by inconsistency due to Brexit
  3. We expect the BoE to remain on hold as it awaits Brexit... which will probably be postponed again

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Fast Comment China — PMI uptick too small to change picture of slowing growth

  1. Both manufacturing PMIs increased somewhat…
  2. …but remain below 50
  3. Only a trade deal can stop growth from falling

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — Slower growth, subdued inflation shows euro area struggles

  1. Slower GDP growth illustrates euro area struggle
  2. Inflation remains subdued, unemployment stays flat
  3. Concerns over recent data feeds expectations of fresh stimulus from the ECB

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist |