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Global Macro Forecast - High on risk, low on ammo

  • Downside risks burdening global growth
  • Consumers holding up
  • Low interest rates are the new normal
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Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

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Global Macro Forecast


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Global macro forecast


07 Oct

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Fast Comment Norway — Preview: Survey and registered unemployment

  1. Unemployment has levelled out this year, even though employment growth has remained solid
  2. This because labour force participation has picked up as well
  3. Labour market is not as tight as one might think; fairly moderate wage growth ahead

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

UK Comment — Dovish BoE remains on hold

  1. Policy left unchanged; the decisions were unanimous
  2. Weaker global growth and Brexit uncertainty had led to further slowing of UK economy
  3. The BoE likely to remain on hold ahead

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Fast Comment Norway — Norges Bank hikes policy rate but lowers policy rate path

  1. Policy rate hiked to 1.5 percent, with a 40 percent probability of another hike next year
  2. Solid domestic economy, but weaker foreign factors and domestic inflation trend
  3. The policy rate has now finally reached its peak

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Fast Comment Sweden — Hesitant housing prices

  1. HOX Valueguard housing prices flat in August, as positive trend stalls
  2. Full-year 2019 still on track to register a price rise
  3. Upbeat mood in housing market remains, with stabilisation not yet affected by poor macroeconomic news

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |

UK Comment — UK inflation easing markedly in August

  1. CPI inflation down to 1.7% and core CPI inflation down to 1.5 percent in August
  2. Inflation below market expectations, but roughly in line with the BoE forecast
  3. We expect the BoE to sit perfectly still tomorrow

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |

Fast Comment Sweden — Another labour market shock - unemployment now a concern for Riksbank and government

  1. Contrary to expectations and other signals from the labour market, unemployment rises after last month's shock
  2. Unemployment is trending uncomfortably high compared to Riksbank and government forecasts
  3. Adds to our view that the Riksbank will ultimately call off planned rate rises

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |