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Macro Comment Sweden

Valet blir stökigt, men marknaden tar det med ro

Opinionsläget tyder på att det kommer att bli en utdragen och komplicerad regeringsbildning efter valet den 9 september. Valrörelsen kommer att präglas av regeringsfrågan. Men det finns ingenting som tyder på att partierna kommer att bringa klarhet hur landet ska styras efter valet. Det mesta talar för att det i slutändan blir en minoritetsregering med ett svagt och osäkert regeringsunderlag

Läs hela rapporten på svenska: 
Valet blir stökigt, men marknaden tar det med ro

Read full report in English:
The election will be messy, but the market is relaxed


Anders Bergvall

Anders Bergvall

Senior Economist

Thematic analysis and USA

anbe83@handelsbanken.se

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2018-08-03

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Fast Comment China — Manufacturing PMIs fall another month

  1. Trade tensions starting to bite
  2. Change of economic policy tide

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Weaker growth but higher inflation

  1. GDP growth slowed to 0.3% q-o-q in Q2 - weaker than expected
  2. Inflation rose further above the ECB's goal in July
  3. Unemployment steady at 8.3% in June

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment Denmark — Labour market still going strong

  1. There were 1,400 fewer unemployed in June
  2. The unemployment rate is now below 4% for the first time since 2009
  3. Strong labour market positive for private consumption but could cause problems ahead

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Economic confidence drops to lowest level in a year

  1. Economic Sentiment Index fell from 112.3 to 112.1 in July (estimated 112.0)
  2. Confirms weaker growth momentum
  3. Global trade uncertainty may be gaining

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment Sweden — GDP growth in the second quarter

  1. Growth surprisingly fast, as household consumption rises
  2. Swedish economy deep into boom phase of the business cycle
  3. Coupled with today's labour cost news, growth reading supports our Riksbank forecast

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Denmark — No trade war jitters in industry

  1. The business barometer for industry rose from 2 to 3 in July
  2. Service sector slightly disappointing with an unchanged reading of 9, while construction improved from -2 to 0
  3. Growth outlook still favourable, but signals of growth peak intact

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk