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Global Macro Forecast - Meagre shelter for the global economy

  • Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
  • Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
  • Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Christina Nyman

Chief Economist

Global Research

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Fast Comment Norway — Core inflation no longer an argument for lifting the shorter-end of the rate path

  1. The CPI-ATE fell sharply in May (2.3 pct), well below expectations (2.6 percent)
  2. We still believe NB will hike its policy rate next week, but...
  3. ...core inflation no longer an argument for lifting the shorter end of the rate path

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment US — Employment growth shifting down and weak wage growth

  1. Weak payrolls – US economy adds only 75,000 jobs in May
  2. Moderate wage growth – we do not expect wage growth to rise much further in this business cycle
  3. Will the Fed cut rates this year?

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist |

Macro Comment China — Flare-up of trade war clouds the outlook for the CNY

The escalation in trade tensions have weakened the CNY recently. We have revised our near-term forecasts accordingly, but baring a fully fledged trade war, we still expect the CNY to remain stable and thus see a slightly stronger CNY versus the USD ahead.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment Norway — Output growth rebounding again, rate hike in June

  1. Manufacturing output up 2.2 percent in April, mainland GDP growth of 0.3 percent m-o-m
  2. Growth is rebounding from a temporary setback in Q1
  3. Norges Bank to hike its policy rate at the upcoming June meeting

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — ECB in mild dovish shift, with TLTRO III less generous than last round

  1. ECB in mild dovish shift, with TLTRO III less generous than last round
  2. Draghi warns eurozone risks tilted to the downside; tiering unlikely without further guidance changes
  3. Inflation outlook pressures an ECB expecting extensive personnel changes

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist |