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Global Macro Comment

The lay of "The Land"

What do we really know about inflation? The state of the art was recently laid out by top academics and central bank economists at the "Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics" conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In this comment we give a first-hand account of what was discussed in "The Land". The conference gave greater insight into the anchoring of inflation expectations at central banks' targets, mixed with a new understanding of inflation fundamentals. Change is often hard work, but policymakers would be smart to embrace these latest insights.

Global Macro Comment - The lay of "The Land"

Johan Löf

Senior Economist

Sweden

jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2018-06-19

Fast Comment Sweden

2018-06-15

Global Macro Comment

2018-06-14

Fast Comment Sweden

Latest publications in

Fast Comment Norway — Steady upward pace in retail spending; supports a rate hike

  1. Retail spending up 0.6 percent in April; we expected 0.5 percent (consensus 0.4 percent)
  2. Previous data revised to show a steady upward pace
  3. Supports the case for a rate hike in September

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Fast Comment Sweden — Sentiment indicators in May: Data digest shows increased dissonance among signals

  1. Buoyant overall sentiment, but subsector indicators a mixed bag
  2. No alarming threat to our GDP forecast, despite consumer confidence being weaker than expected
  3. Survey details reinforce our above-consensus forecast for inflation and expectation of a Riksbank rate hike

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Swedish economy in full swing...for now; preview of this week's key macro data

  1. Economy at full speed, GDP outcome is expected show (Wednesday)
  2. But leading indicators will continue to signal a dampening ahead (Tuesday)
  3. Wage increases keep rising in the latter phase of the global cycle (Wednesday)

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment Emerging Markets — EM turmoil not the overture for a full-blown crisis

Some emerging markets (EM) have experienced very severe stock market losses and currency weakening this year, particularly since mid-April, and hardly any EMs have avoided the fallout from a stronger USD and tighter global liquidity. On various vulnerability indicators, several EMs (including Argentina and Turkey) indeed look fragile, and we have most likely not seen the worst yet. On the other hand, the current turmoil should not be the beginning of a widespread EM crisis, in our view, as EMs on aggregate are not much worse off now than before the two most recent EM asset sell-offs.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment Norway — Petroleum investment expectations for 2018-19, well enough in line with Norges Bank's expectation

  1. Estimate for petroleum investment in 2018 down to 1.3% from 7.1% in Q1 survey
  2. Petroleum investment in 2019 seen up 8 percent
  3. Estimates well enough in line with Norges Bank’s expectation

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no