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EMU Comment — PMI surprises on the downside again

  1. Composite PMI fell to lowest level in more than a year
  2. Increases risks to growth outlook this year

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

Macro Comment US — Short-term fiscal boost, but increasing risks

Substantially more expansionary fiscal policy indicates stronger growth for both 2018 and 2019 than in our January forecast. However, the demand impulses from the tax reform and budget deal also increase the risks of overheating. The Federal Reserve will, in our view, respond and raise the policy rate three more times this year. Moreover, we believe that financial conditions will tighten more than households and firms expect. Thus, even if we now expect growth to be maintained for longer, we are still more pessimistic than consensus about the longer-term performance of the US economy and believe that the US will lead the next global downturn.

Christina Nyman, Head of Forecasting |

Morgenrapport Norge —

Halfdan Grangård, Senior Economist |

Morgenmelding Danmark —

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist |

Fast Comment US — Fed hikes and raises rate outlook for 2019, 2020

  1. Fed hikes and raises rate outlook for 2019, 2020
  2. Press statement little changed; significantly lower unemployment forecasts
  3. USD slightly lower, curve steepens

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist |

UK Comment — Data supports rate hike in May from the Bank of England

  1. Labour market data stronger than market expectations
  2. New information overall in line with BoE expectations
  3. No change to policy tomorrow, but watch for possible hints of a May hike

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway |