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Morgenmelding Danmark —

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment Sweden — Mopping up the package tour mess: inflation to stay close to target over the summer, but will ease this autumn

Inflation will likely be dampened by multiple factors ahead, but is expected to trend close to target for many months to come. This near-term inflation boost is merely a transitory effect from package tour prices, and therefore something the Riksbank will look through. To explain why currently soaring inflation read-ings will not in themselves affect the Riksbank's decisions at the July and September monetary policy meetings, this article takes a look at the nitty-gritty of package tour prices.

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment US — Financial conditions key to the Fed

We are convinced that financial conditions-both actual and expected-are key to understanding why the Fed has not delivered in line with its forward guidance since the start of policy normalisation in late 2013. However, at present, consistency between forward guidance and policy delivering seems to be improving. So far in 2017, actual rate increases have been in line with the Fed's forward guidance. Nevertheless, we expect financial conditions to deteriorate sharply in the future, which will contribute to an end of policy tightening in 2018 and to prompt a recession in 2019.

Petter Lundvik, Senior Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Sweden — Sentiment data in June

  1. Mixed signals behind overall upbeat sentiment in June
  2. Overall economic sentiment continues to challenge our GDP outlook
  3. Manufacturing confidence did not drop like the PMI has recently

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment Norway — Survey unemployment marginally above expectations

  1. LFS unemployment at 4.6 percent in April, following 4.5 percent in March
  2. We and consensus expected 4.5 percent
  3. The bigger picture: fairly stable

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Senior Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Morgenrapport Norge —

Kari Due-Andresen, Chief Economist Norway | kadu01@handelsbanken.no