Research
Tip: To personalise the research list, click the gear symbol above.


Choose type:


Fast Comment SwedenHousing prices in November

  1. Steeper price decline in November
  2. Higher supply of flats for sale
  3. Calmer developments ahead, in our view
Steeper price decline in November
Housing prices decreased by 0.2 percent in November compared with November 2016 (versus a 2.9 percent rise in October), according to Valueguard’s HOX index. The monthly percentage change was -2.9 percent, but somewhat smaller when adjusted for normal seasonal variation (1.8 percent, according to our calculations).
Higher supply of flats for sale
The decline in housing prices is, to some extent, related to concerns about excess supply in a certain high-priced housing segment and in certain specific areas, and about cases of speculative investment. There has been a rapid increase in tenant-owned flats for sale. Housing investments are at very high levels, adding new supply to the market. Still, a large proportion of municipalities expect housing shortages to continue for the next three years. The average time it takes to sell a flat has increased compared with last year, but the number of sales seems to have been quite stable.
Calmer developments ahead, in our view
We expect prices to stabilise as we head into the new year. Low interest rates, high population growth and a strong economy suggest a sharp fall in housing prices is unlikely. Household sentiment is still strong, helped by high saving rates and high employment, and the global economy remains supportive. We believe that concerns about the housing market will gradually ease. The new stricter amortisation requirements, that will be implemented from March 1, 2018, will most likely not cause any drama; however, we cannot rule out it having a temporary effect on supply.

 
 
 


Source: Valueguard.



Source: Valueguard, Macrobond, seasonally adjusted by Handelsbanken.



Source: Hemnet, Macrobond


 


Source: Valueguard, Macrobond


 


Source: Valueguard, Macrobond

 


Source: Valueguard, Macrobond


Disclaimer

Helena Bornevall

Senior Economist

Scenario Analysis

hebo12@handelsbanken.se

Latest analyses

2018-11-09

Fast Comment Sweden

2018-10-18

Fast Comment Sweden

2018-10-15

Fast Comment Sweden