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Fast Comment SwedenFebruary sentiment indicators

  1. ETI decreased slightly, but sentiment clearly stronger than normal
  2. Consumers slightly less confident about their own economic situation
  3. Weaker employment plans in the construction sector
ETI decreased slightly, but sentiment still stronger than normal
The February data from the National Institute of Economic Research consumer and business surveys shows that the Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) decreased slightly to 109.5 (consensus: 110, our estimate: 111). The Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) was somewhat lower than expected, with a reading of 104.7 (consensus: 107, our estimate: 106). But households are still more optimistic than normal. The Manufacturing Confidence Indicator (MCI) was relatively unchanged (outcome: 114, consensus: 113, our estimate: 115).
Somewhat weaker signals from households and building firms
In our fast comment preceding this survey, we wrote that it is crucial to dig deeper than headline indicators. For the construction sector, we note that expectations have dropped somewhat, following the drop in house prices and last month's drop in building firms' expectations for one year ahead. Labour constraints have also declined slightly, but are still high. On the other hand, one out of ten building firms answered that financial constraints are the main limiting factor. In terms of the manufacturing sector, firms assess that orders are still clearly above the historical average, even though production plans were revised down somewhat. Looking at households' expectations, we note that households' view of their own economic situation (Micro Index) were revised down. This was related to a less optimistic view of purchase of durable goods. A final observation is that household expectations on interest rates have not changed much since last month.

ETI has declined for three consecutive months, but future remains bright 

Source: KI, Macrobond

Manufacturing Confidence Indicator remains stronger than normal 

Source: KI, Macrobond

Households still optimistic but household expectations of the own economic situation were dampened in the February survey, partly due to less optimistic plans to make major purchases 

Source: KI, Macrobond

Expectations of building activity and employment plans declined slightly, following drop in one-year expectations and house prices

Source: KI, Macrobond

One out of ten building firms stated financial constraints as main limiting factor

Source: KI, Macrobond


Helena Bornevall

Senior Economist

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