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Fast Comment ChinaPMIs signal slightly slower growth

  1. The two manufacturing PMIs point in different directions
  2. We see growth slowing gradually
The two manufacturing PMIs point in different directions
The official manufacturing PMI index fell a full index point from 51.3 in January to 50.3 in February. On the contrary, manufacturing PMI from Markit increased slightly from 51.5 to 51.6. Both indicators might be distorted by the timing of the New Year holidays, but Markit usually seems to better adjust for the New Year than the official statistical bureau. Hence, we choose to put less emphasis on the drop in the official index. Still, the increase in Markit’s index is only marginal, and we see the trend for both PMIs as being downward.
We see growth slowing gradually
That would be in line with our view that overall economic growth should slow gradually ahead. The construction boom is very likely over due to the many measures taken by the authorities to avoid speculation and dampen the lively housing markets. The authorities are also eager to dampen overall credit growth and, in particular, shadow banking activity, and that, along with the measures to combat air pollution, will inevitably weigh on economic growth ahead.


Disclaimer

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen

Senior Economist

Latin America and China

bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

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