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Macro Comment SwedenIn defence of inflation

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In the midst of an onslaught of renewed pessimism about the consumer price outlook, we once again wave the banner of a sustained positive inflation trend. Judging by questions from clients, talk among fellow analysts and commentary in the media, we would do best writing memos titled All Quiet on the Price Rise Front, Game of One-Offs - Price Hikes Stop Coming, or even Inflation and its Critics. However, after re-examining the cold, hard data, we conclude that a more positive tone is warranted and argue that inflation is still trending upward and is therefore bound to surprise many on the upside. We expect the March CPI to start confirming this, while tomorrow's February outcome will show that inflation was still muted last month.

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Johan Löf

Senior Economist

Sweden

jolo22@handelsbanken.se

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