Research
Tip: To personalise the research list, click the gear symbol above.


Choose type:


Fast Comment NorwayPreview of retail sales in February (due next Wednesday)

  1. We estimate retail sales rose by 0.7 percent in Feb, following -0.4 percent in Jan
  2. January was a negative surprise, but retail spending has posted a net gain over the past 3 months
  3. Retail spending is backed by solid employment growth and rising real wages
We estimate retail sales rose by 0.7 percent in Feb, following -0.4 percent in Jan
We estimate retail sales rose by 0.7 percent m-o-m in February, following -0.4 percent in January. The data are due next Wednesday. We note that the decline in January followed another negative reading in December, at -1.1 percent, but spending rose by an impressive 2.3 percent in November. As we have highlighted a few times, spending in November was boosted by sales activity related to Black Friday and the subsequent correction in December was widely expected. That said, January was a disappointment, but when looking through the volatility, retail spending has posted a net gain over the past three months. We continue to expect a modest uptrend ahead, backed by solid employment growth and rising real wages. While we acknowledge that consumer sentiment has fallen from its highs, it is still elevated and is hovering around where it was prior to the oil price collapse in 2014. Even though more households are now expecting higher interest rates ahead, we believe households in general will manage this well, as higher rates are accompanied by higher wage incomes.


Disclaimer

Marius Gonsholt Hov

Senior Economist

Norway

maho60@handelsbanken.no

Latest analyses

2018-05-23

Morgenrapport Norge

2018-05-22

Fast Comment Norway

2018-05-22

Morgenrapport Norge