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Fast Comment SwedenPreview of February business sector production

  1. Growth robust in the first quarter, in line with our GDP forecast
  2. Leading indicators support production growth next quarter as well...
  3. ...but some clouds seem to be gathering
February business sector production data of the Production Value Index due on Thursday, April 5
The February business sector production data of the Production Value Index (PVI) are due on Thursday, April 5. We expect some further growth, in line with the 2017 trend, taking the yearly growth to 5.0 percent (calendar adjusted, i.e. m-o-m growth 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted). Swedish GDP growth in last year's fourth quarter was in line with our January Global Macro Forecast report. Recent PVI developments suggest the start of 2018 has also been in line with our GDP forecast for a slight further acceleration. However, some forward looking indicators appear to signal deceleration ahead. Please see graphs below.


PVI indicates some further acceleration in GDP growth, after 2017; Q4 turned out as we expected


Quite solid production growth all through 2017 (total PVI)



The NIER business survey signals robust production growth in the first quarter...



...but could there be a deceleration on the cards? 



New manufacturing orders appear to boost Q1 production (and so does monthly export data, not shown here) 


Source: Macrobond


Disclaimer

Johan Löf

Senior Economist

Sweden

jolo22@handelsbanken.se

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