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Fast Comment NorwayA disappointing start to the year for industrial production

  1. Manufacturing output down 0.1 percent in March; weaker than expected
  2. The positive trend is now in question...
  3. …but we expect high international demand and increased oil investments to buoy IP ahead
Manufacturing output fell by 0.1 percent in March; weaker than expected
Manufacturing output decreased by 0.1 percent m-o-m in March, following a 0.2 percent increase in February and a 2.0 percent drop in January. The outcome for March was well below our expectation of 1.5 percent (no consensus available this time). Our expectations were based on the view that the drop in January largely reflected volatility, and we were therefore looking for an upward correction in March. Including the March figure, growth in Q1 came in at -1.1 percent after +1.0 in Q4 last year. The trend is now weaker than anticipated, and the upward trajectory could be questioned. However, the outlook for the manufacturing sector looks robust, with solid global growth, the NOK exchange rate still being weak and expectations of a rebound in petroleum investments this year. Having said that, we note that some sentiment indicators have moderated and global momentum has weakened somewhat. We continue to expect the trend to firm ahead, as higher oil investments will likely buoy industrial production. The figures for Q1 also show that production in the petroleum-related sector has been healthy, and we expect further upside.

 


Source: Macrobond


Disclaimer

Halfdan Grangård

Senior Economist

Norway

hagr11@handelsbanken.no

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