Fast Comment Norway - Macro Research - Handelsbanken Capital Markets

 

Research
Tip: To personalise the research list, click the gear symbol above.


Choose type:


Fast Comment NorwayCredit indicator growth in line with market expectations; stable household debt growth

  1. Credit indicator growth at 6.3 percent in April, as expected
  2. Stable household debt growth
  3. Household debt growth lower than expected by Norges Bank, but housing prices on the strong side
Credit indicator growth at 6.3 percent in April, as expected
Credit indicator growth (C2) landed at 6.3 percent in April, as expected by both us and consensus. The outcome for April marked a slight increase from March, as the latter figure was revised from previously 6.3 to now 6.2 percent. According to the details, the slight increase in April was driven by some higher debt growth among non-financial corporations. Further details reveal that household debt growth was unchanged at 6.0 percent in April, matching our estimate. The peak (for households) was reached about a year ago, at 6.7 percent. The underlying growth rate, as expressed by the seasonally-adjusted monthly change converted to an annual rate, is trending below the actual y-o-y rate. This indicates that household debt growth may decline somewhat further. Note that it has already fallen below Norges Bank’s short-term estimates. On the other hand, housing prices have risen more than Norges Bank has expected. Taken together, financial stability concerns are probably little changed since the Monetary Policy Report in March; pointing toward a rate hike in September.


Disclaimer

Marius Gonsholt Hov

Senior Economist

Norway

maho60@handelsbanken.no

Latest analyses

2018-08-14

Fast Comment Norway

2018-08-14

Morgenrapport Norge

2018-08-07

Fast Comment Norway