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Fast Comment NorwayRegistered unemployment fell in line with expectations in May

  1. Registered unemployment at 2.2 percent in May, as expected by us and consensus
  2. Still somewhat higher than anticipated by Norges Bank...
  3. ...but the deviation has narrowed, supporting a rate hike in September
Registered unemployment at 2.2 percent in May, as expected by us and consensus
Registered unemployment fell by 1,700 people in May, following a rather flat trend over the past three months. Including government schemes, the decline in May was more pronounced, at 2500 people. The registered unemployment rate, calculated as people registered as fully unemployed (schemes are left out), was 2.2 percent in May, down from 2.4 percent in April. The outcome was as we and consensus had expected. Adjusted for normal seasonal variations, the unemployment rate was 2.34 percent in May, slightly down from 2.38 percent in April. However, given the relatively flat trend during February-April, the level is still somewhat above Norges Bank’s short-term forecasts (see chart below). But the key factor is that the gap has narrowed a bit – which was what we were looking for today. The amount of available resources in the labour market is somewhat bigger than anticipated by Norges Bank, but not to the extent that it questions a rate hike in September. We stick to our expectation that the key policy rate will be raised by 25 basis points after the summer.


Disclaimer

Marius Gonsholt Hov

Senior Economist

Norway

maho60@handelsbanken.no

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