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Fast Comment NorwayRegistered unemployment rose in July; mostly due to technical reasons

  1. Registered unemployment rose by 2,900 people in July
  2. But this was mostly due to technical reasons
  3. Expect a downward correction in August
Unemployment up by 2,900 people in July, but mind the details
The number of people registered as fully unemployed rose by 2,900 people in July; at face value, a major negative surprise. However, the press statement makes it very clear that this was mostly due to technical reasons. Most importantly, the data was collected later this year, which inflates the numbers as unemployment normally rises in July (this will be reversed in August). According to NAV, unemployment rose just marginally in July when we adjust for the delayed data collection. However, this still implies the downtrend in registered unemployment has continued to slow, as we have highlighted before. Employment growth is holding up well, but we continue to see clearer signs of labour force participation picking up from its cyclical trough. The result is that overall unemployment is little changed. However, this is a part of the broader improvement of the labour market, which supports Norges Bank’s arguments for a rate hike in September.


Disclaimer

Marius Gonsholt Hov

Senior Economist

Norway

maho60@handelsbanken.no

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