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Macro Comment NorwayNorges Bank to (slightly) lift its near-term policy rate path

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In June, Norges Bank indicated that the policy rate would be increased by 25 basis points in September. Beyond that, Norges Bank expected two more rate increases throughout 2019, and a total of seven rate in-creases over the entire forecasting horizon (until the end of 2021). News since the June meeting has largely surprised on the upside. Against this backdrop, we believe Norges Bank will signal it is more likely than not with three rate hikes in 2019. But the outlook calls for a careful approach, and we believe Norges Bank will keep the longer end of the rate path intact.

Disclaimer

Marius Gonsholt Hov

Senior Economist

Norway

maho60@handelsbanken.no

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