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Fast Comment NorwayHousing prices up by 0.1 percent in September; well in line with expectations

  1. Housing prices up by 0.1 pct in Sep, following -0.1 pct in Aug
  2. Well in line with expectations
  3. Neutral to Norges Bank
Housing prices up by 0.1 pct in Sep, following -0.1 pct in Aug
According to Eiendom Norge, housing prices rose by 0.1 percent m-o-m (S.A) in September. The outcome was well in line with the signals given upfront by the realtors, as well as the recently published OBOS-statistics. The outcome was exactly in line with Norges Bank’s short-term forecast, as shown in the chart below. The slight increase in September reversed the similar decline in August. And smoothing through the past four months, reveals an average pace of around 0.1 percent m-o-m (S.A). To make it short: Following the upward correction seen earlier this year, housing prices have moderated clearly since June. But the current pace is matching Norges Bank’s as well as our own assessments, of a moderately positive trend for the housing market (as a whole). Having said that, we cannot entirely rule out downside risks, as the stock of unsold housing units continue to climb. And Oslo, still at the center of media’s attention, have also performed slightly weaker than the national average over the past few months. That was also the case in September, when prices in Oslo fell by 0.3 percent (S.A), matching the decline in August. But we would have been more worried if the sales volume had been lower. But as shown below, sales activity remains quite high in Oslo. In summary, we maintain our assessment of a marginally positive outlook for the housing market as a whole. And as already stated, today’s data should be neutral to Norges Bank.


Disclaimer

Marius Gonsholt Hov

Senior Economist

Norway

maho60@handelsbanken.no

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