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Fast Comment NorwaySurvey unemployment continues to level out

  1. LFS unemployment unchanged at 4 percent in October; in line with consensus (we had 3.9 percent)
  2. Fourth consecutive reading of 4 percent
  3. Today’s data release does not affect the outlook for the key policy rate path
LFS unemployment unchanged at 4 percent in October (three months of September-November)
According to the Labour Force Survey (LFS), overall employment increased by 7 000 people in October (three months of September-November), whereas the labour force expanded by 9 000 people. As a consequence, October saw as slight increase in the number of unemployed people. But the increase was too small to affect the overall unemployment rate, which again was unchanged at 4.0 percent. This was the fourth consecutive reading with an unemployment rate of 4.0 percent. The level is little changed from the start of 2018, and underlines that the unemployment decline has levelled out over the past year. The outcome for October was in line with consensus, whereas we had anticipated a slight decline to 3.9 percent. Going forward we still see scope for some lower unemployment, however, as the participation rate has basically recovered from its preceding cyclical drop; i.e, going forward we expect to see slower growth in the labour force. Norges Bank has anticipated an average unemployment rate of 3.97 percent in Q4 2018, decreasing slightly to 3.92 percent in Q1. Today’s data release does not affect the outlook for the key policy rate path.


Disclaimer

Marius Gonsholt Hov

Senior Economist

Norway

maho60@handelsbanken.no

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