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Fast Comment NorwayPositive outlook for manufacturing (2019), despite global headwinds

  1. Manufacturing output unchanged in Nov, following 1.5 percent in Oct
  2. Manufacturing output up 0.9 percent over the past three months
  3. Outlook for the manufacturing sector remains positive for 2019, but how will other sectors perform?
Manufacturing output up 0.9 percent over the past three months
Manufacturing output was unchanged in November, following +1.5 percent in October. The outcome was better than generally expected; we and consensus expected a slight negative correction (-0.5 and -0.3 percent, respectively). Output over the past three months has increased by 0.9 percent, which shows the manufacturing sector is currently growing faster than the overall economy. Manufacturing output is in particular supported by increasing activity among the oil supplying industries, which rose by a total 2.8 percent in the three months of September-November. The outlook remains positive, as petroleum investments are expected to rise by a double digit rate this year. A couple of questions remains, however. For starters, it remains to be seen whether the other sectors of the economy will keep its current pace. Yesterday we got the monthly update from the Financial News Index (FNI-Retriever/Camp(BI)), which showed the overall momentum had weakened significantly towards the beginning of 2019 (chart below). And further ahead, this year’s substantial increase in petroleum investments will not be repeated. Our base case is for the overall economy to maintain its pace in 2019, but we admit that risks are skewed a bit to the downside. In any case we expect a clear downshift in GDP growth from 2020.


Disclaimer

Marius Gonsholt Hov

Senior Economist

Norway

maho60@handelsbanken.no

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