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Fast Comment NorwayHousing prices rose further in January (S.A); we maintain our moderatly positive outlook

  1. Housing prices up 0.5 percent in January; Oslo up 0.3 percent (seasonally adjusted)
  2. Prices have risen faster than assumed by Norges Bank over the past couple of months
  3. We maintain our call for two rate hikes this year (March and September)
Housing prices up 0.5 percent in January; Oslo up 0.3 percent
According to Eiendom Norge, national housing prices rose by 0.5 percent m-o-m in January, when adjusted for normal seasonal variations. The outcome for Oslo was 0.3 percent; thus, reversing the slight decline seen in December. As shown in the chart below, national housing prices appear to be trending gradually upwards. Whereas Oslo appears to have halted the slight decline seen during the second half of 2018. Our simple indicator for the supply/demand-balance (chart below) indicates that the near-term outlook remains for a moderate housing price increase, in seasonally adjusted terms. And, we maintain our call for a moderate increase in average housing prices this year; our base-case is for average housing prices to rise somewhat below the nominal wage growth rate. As such our estimate for 2019 is a bit above Norges Bank’s forecast. But then again we note that housing prices have surprised the Bank on the upside over the past two months. The recent housing prices data does not alter our outlook for the key policy rate path; we maintain our call for two hikes this year (March and September).


Disclaimer

Marius Gonsholt Hov

Senior Economist

Norway

maho60@handelsbanken.no

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