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Fast Comment SwedenHousing prices in February

  1. February housing prices close to unchanged
  2. Prices for houses and apartments are slightly higher than in previous year
  3. Neither up nor down in 2019, we believe
February housing prices close to unchanged
In February, housing prices increased by 0.4 percent compared to January, according to the HOX index. This indicates that the seasonally adjusted monthly figure increased slightly, by 0.2 percent compared to the previous month. Hence, the start of the year has not been strong, but our view is that the housing price trend is fairly stable, a view that is also obtained when observing data from Svensk Mäklarstatistik. Housing prices in February rebounded a bit, to 0.7 percent compared to the same month in previous year.
Prices for houses and apartments are slightly higher than in the previous year
Digging into the details, house prices in Stockholm and Gothenburg had a weaker (and slightly negative) trend figure than house prices in Malmö in February. For apartments, the regional differences were smaller. Prices of houses and apartments were slightly higher than in the previous year. In Stockholm and Gothenburg, the annual percentage change was close to unchanged for houses as well as for apartments. In Malmö however, house prices were 4.5 percent higher than in February 2018 and apartment prices were up 3.7 percent.
Neither up nor down in 2019, we believe
We reiterate our view of a stable trend in housing prices and a gradual stabilisation of housing investments this year. Housing shortage can mainly be observed in the bigger cities, in Stockholm in particular, and it continues to contribute to the high housing price levels. Interest rates are also likely to remain low, and we think that the absence of rapid increases in the near term also supports our view. However, the elevated number of housing units for sale and the stricter credit conditions prevent housing prices rising in line with incomes, we believe.

Please see graphs and comments below.

Not a strong start to 2019, but it seems as if the housing price trend remains stable. 

Source: Valueguard, Macrobond

Both apartments and houses are slightly higher than in February 2018.  

Source: Valueguard, Macrobond

In 2017 the number of apartments up for sale increased rapidly. Lately, not only the number of sales has had a negative trend, but also the number of newly added apartments up for sale on the website Hemnet.

Sources: Svensk Mäklarstatistik, Hemnet, Macrobond

Housing starts peaked in 2017 and population growth is decelerating, indicating housing shortage in Sweden as a whole remains close to unchanged. That is not the case in all regions though, as housing shortage is primarily concentrated to the bigger cities.

Source: SCB, Macrobond


Helena Bornevall (parental leave)

Senior Economist

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