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Fast Comment NorwayRegistered unemployment at 2.1% in June, in line with expectations

  1. Registered as well as survey unemployment falling
  2. The labour market improvement has further to go
Registered as well as survey unemployment falling
As we expected, the unadjusted registered unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.1 percent in June. That implied a fall in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to 2.2 percent in June from 2.3 percent in May. The outcome was also in line with the consensus expectation and broadly in line with Norges Bank’s forecast. According to NAV, the number of unemployed persons fell by 600 in June, while the number of unemployed and on schemes fell by 700. Earlier this week, LFS numbers from Statistics Norway showed a surprisingly sharp drop in survey unemployment, but much of the fall was due to a reduction in the labour force, which we believe will correct up again ahead.
The labour market improvement has further to go
Looking at the labour market, near-term employment signals remain strong, as is suggested by the latest report from Norges Bank’s Regional Network. Currently, overall employment growth is exceeding the growth rate for the working-age population and the labour force participation rate has recovered from its cyclical drop during the oil crisis. With this week’s numbers from NAV and Statistics Norway, the trend in unemployment is still downward. Over the next few months, we expect to see some further improvement in the labour market as employment growth continues to be healthy.

 



 


Disclaimer

Kari Due-Andresen

Chief Economist Norway

Norway and UK

kadu01@handelsbanken.no

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