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China

Fast Comment China — An early (stimuli) Christmas gift

  1. China announces further economic stimuli
  2. Should alleviate financial markets’ concerns
  3. Growth target not yet announced

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — The economy slows further down

  1. Most activity indicators fell again in November
  2. Fixed investments helped by stimuli
  3. Stimuli not enough to avoid further slowdown

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment China — We expect the CNY to strengthen gradually

Following a marked CNY weakening over the summer, we now expect the CNY to strengthen gradually, as we believe China's authorities will stick to their goal of keeping the CNY "basically stable".

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — US-China cease-fire positive for China’s suffering industrial sector

  1. US tariff hike postponed
  2. China’s manufacturing PMIs on a downward trend
  3. Trade war far from over yet

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Signs of stimulus but growth slowdown continues

  1. Infrastructure investments rebounds while households are holding back
  2. Now more difficult to stimulate the economy
  3. Stimuli will mitigate but not avoid the growth slowdown

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment China — Stimuli not enough to avoid further slowdown

Economic growth in China is slowing due to trade war fears and previous deleveraging efforts. Stimuli have been announced and more are likely to come. These measures will mitigate but not avoid the growth slow-down, as it is now more difficult than it was previously to stimulate the economy.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk