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China

Fast Comment China — Property sector cool down weighs on growth

  1. Retail sales growth disappointed in October
  2. Services not captured by retail sales figures

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment China — CNY to be kept stable, but only in effective terms

We revise our USD/CNY forecast after seeing signs of Chinese authorities being less worried about CNY weakness, and on the back of revisions to our USD forecast. Our underlying view of a stable effective exchange rate is unchanged and we continue to expect a weakening of the CNY versus the USD in the short term, but a stronger CNY in the long term.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Party congress in full swing

  1. Long-term growth target not mentioned
  2. SOE reforms among main economic policy priorities
  3. Leadership for the coming five years to be formed

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Growth was still strong in Q3

  1. GDP growth fell only marginally to 6.8 percent in Q3
  2. Monthly indicators improved in September

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Global macro forecast — Tailwinds now, but autumn storms are coming

• The end of the recovery, into the boom
• Tricky reorientation of monetary policy
• Global slowdown in 2019

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment China — China Trip 2017: Healthy growth leaves room to tackle overcapacity

• Our travel notes: we left China more positive than we arrived
• Party congress will consolidate President Xi's power
• Cutbacks in China finally rebalance commodity markets

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se