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China

Fast Comment China — Signs of stimulus but growth slowdown continues

  1. Infrastructure investments rebounds while households are holding back
  2. Now more difficult to stimulate the economy
  3. Stimuli will mitigate but not avoid the growth slowdown

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment China — Stimuli not enough to avoid further slowdown

Economic growth in China is slowing due to trade war fears and previous deleveraging efforts. Stimuli have been announced and more are likely to come. These measures will mitigate but not avoid the growth slow-down, as it is now more difficult than it was previously to stimulate the economy.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Global Macro Forecast — Interest rate hikes despite lower growth

• Geopolitical risks dominate
• Divergence in global growth
• Central banks defy concerns

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — Manufacturing confidence plunges again

  1. Trade war hitting confidence
  2. Not enough stimuli to offset negative trade war impact

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Trade war hurting manufacturing confidence

  1. Both manufacturing PMIs dropped in September
  2. Not enough stimuli to offset negative trade war impact

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — No boost to infrastructure yet

  1. Mixed activity data – fixed investment growth still weak
  2. We see growth slowing further

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk