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China

Global Macro Comment — US and China step away from the brink; rate cuts in July (Fed), September (ECB)

At the G20 summit, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump stepped away from the brink and agreed on a temporary, but argua-bly fragile, trade truce. We have had rate cuts from the Fed next year in our forecasts for some time, but we now ex-pected to see them sooner. Despite it likely being a close call, we expect the Fed to cut its interest rate by 25bp in July and to deliver a cumulative 75bp of cuts early next year. We expect the ECB to adjust forward guidance in July, cut rates in September by 10bp and likely introduce quantitative easing thereafter.

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist | erme03@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — Stimulus has not stopped growth from slowing

  1. Both PMIs now in contractionary territory
  2. Stimulus-driven rebound proved short-lived

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — May data confirm that the worst is not over

  1. Industrial sector hit by trade war
  2. Rebound earlier this year was not ‘real’
  3. Only a minor stimulus-driven rebound

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment China — Flare-up of trade war clouds the outlook for the CNY

The escalation in trade tensions have weakened the CNY recently. We have revised our near-term forecasts accordingly, but baring a fully fledged trade war, we still expect the CNY to remain stable and thus see a slightly stronger CNY versus the USD ahead.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Trade war weighs on manufacturers

  1. Manufacturing PMIs send mixed picture
  2. More stimuli to be expected

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Growth slowed even before new tariffs hit

  1. China’s economy lost momentum in April
  2. Slightly better chance of a trade deal
  3. More stimuli to be expected

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk