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China

Macro Comment China — China’s economic growth is no longer overstated

We introduce our new Handelsbanken China Macro Index, an alternative measure of economic activity in China that seeks to measure the 'true' pace of economic expansion. The index indicates that growth in Chi-na picked up in 2016, especially since early in the summer, and is now close to the officially-reported GDP growth figure of 6.7 percent y-o-y for Q3. The index also indicates that official growth numbers over the last two years have overstated actual growth by one to two percentage points.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Monthly Macro Update — Stimulus quickly trumped by overheating

US: Low unemployment implies limited room for expansion
Eurozone: Weak growth points to further policy stimulus
The Nordics: Labour market mismatch keeps Nordic unemployment high

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment China — The Trump victory and China: Faster CNY depreciation

If the new President of the US does as he promised during the election campaign and imposes tariffs on Chinese imports, China will likely retaliate with, among other things, more marked CNY depreciation. Even the threat of a trade war could ignite accelerated CNY depreciation, and we thus adjust upward our USD/CNY forecast. A trade war would likely also have a negative effect on China's real economy, but we wait for signs that Trump will actually act on his words before revising down our GDP growth forecasts.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Global Macro Comment — Trump is more focused on negotiations than a trade war

Donald Trump is unlikely to start his term of office by introducing high tariffs on imports from Mexico and China, even though he can do this without the approval of Congress. Rather, the "super-negotiator" Trump will prefer to retain this threat and start negotiations with these countries in order to improve US trade conditions. Despite Trump's election campaign promises, we see very little likelihood of a major trade war.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — Trump wins the presidential election

Trump has won the American presidential election, and both the House of Representatives and the Senate have Republican majorities. The major uncertainty regarding President Trump's political agenda will probably lie like a wet blanket over the economy in the near future.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se