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China

Monthly Macro Update — No smooth sailing in sight

US: In for a boom/bust episode
Eurozone: A tall order for the ECB
Nordics: Growing confidence

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — Can Trump reverse globalisation?

President Donald Trump claims that countries with large trade surpluses are stealing jobs from the US. Therefore, he wants to reverse existing trade deals, which have made it possible to move American jobs to low-cost countries. However, historically, trying to move jobs between countries has had a bad track record. In the 1930s, it led to aggressive trade wars. In our view, common sense should prevail to stop politicians, including Donald Trump, from implementing such policies before a full-scale trade war ensues.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Monthly Macro Update — Politics take centre stage

US: Moment of truth for Trump
Eurozone: Strong finish to 2016 bodes well for 2017
Nordics: Drifting apart

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment China — China’s economic growth is no longer overstated

We introduce our new Handelsbanken China Macro Index, an alternative measure of economic activity in China that seeks to measure the 'true' pace of economic expansion. The index indicates that growth in Chi-na picked up in 2016, especially since early in the summer, and is now close to the officially-reported GDP growth figure of 6.7 percent y-o-y for Q3. The index also indicates that official growth numbers over the last two years have overstated actual growth by one to two percentage points.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Monthly Macro Update — Stimulus quickly trumped by overheating

US: Low unemployment implies limited room for expansion
Eurozone: Weak growth points to further policy stimulus
The Nordics: Labour market mismatch keeps Nordic unemployment high

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se