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China

Fast Comment China — Activity data with no signs of a rebound

  1. Stimulus has not yet boosted economic growth
  2. At best, growth has been stable in the first two months of 2019
  3. Growth should rebound somewhat in Q2

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment China — China lowers growth target and eases fiscal policy

By lowering the growth target and at the same time announcing growth stimulus, the authorities clearly acknowledge the current weak stance of the economy. Renewed focus on fiscal instead of monetary policy easing bodes well for the fight against excessive credit.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Another fresh sign of stimulus kicking in

  1. Rebound in manufacturers’ confidence
  2. More stimulus on the cards
  3. Room for policy easing is limited

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment China — Currency stability entering trade talks

China seems ready to promise some sort of currency stability as part of a broader trade agreement with the US. This supports our long-held view that China will continue to keep its currency generally stable in effective terms.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Slowdown not over yet

  1. Plunge in manufacturers’ confidence
  2. More stimulus lies ahead
  3. Room for policy easing is more limited than earlier

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment China — Temporary stabilisation from stimuli

Growth is slowing and more headwinds lie ahead. Further stimulus measures will most likely be implemented, but the room for policy easing is more limited than earlier. We expect stimuli to stabilise growth temporarily later this year, but see growth slowing again into next year.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk