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China

Monthly Macro Update — Stimulus quickly trumped by overheating

US: Low unemployment implies limited room for expansion
Eurozone: Weak growth points to further policy stimulus
The Nordics: Labour market mismatch keeps Nordic unemployment high

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment China — The Trump victory and China: Faster CNY depreciation

If the new President of the US does as he promised during the election campaign and imposes tariffs on Chinese imports, China will likely retaliate with, among other things, more marked CNY depreciation. Even the threat of a trade war could ignite accelerated CNY depreciation, and we thus adjust upward our USD/CNY forecast. A trade war would likely also have a negative effect on China's real economy, but we wait for signs that Trump will actually act on his words before revising down our GDP growth forecasts.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Global Macro Comment — Trump is more focused on negotiations than a trade war

Donald Trump is unlikely to start his term of office by introducing high tariffs on imports from Mexico and China, even though he can do this without the approval of Congress. Rather, the "super-negotiator" Trump will prefer to retain this threat and start negotiations with these countries in order to improve US trade conditions. Despite Trump's election campaign promises, we see very little likelihood of a major trade war.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — Trump wins the presidential election

Trump has won the American presidential election, and both the House of Representatives and the Senate have Republican majorities. The major uncertainty regarding President Trump's political agenda will probably lie like a wet blanket over the economy in the near future.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — SEK – Fooled by fundamentals

The Swedish krona has been weak and it has gone from bad to worse in recent months, as the anticipated strengthening of the krona has actually turned out to be the weakest level against the euro in more than six years. We have been bullish for some time and still believe the EURSEK is at elevated levels, but we feel it is necessary to adjust our short-term forecast up to 9.55 (9.35).

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

Global macro forecast — Economic growth has already peaked

• Cyclical and structural factors dampen growth
• Increased risk of a slump
• Monetary and fiscal policy out of ammunition
• Demographics push down interest rates

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se