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China

Global macro forecast — Global boom starting to cool

• Stimulus measures in the US fuel growth but add risk
• Bottlenecks and higher interest rates slowing global growth
• Protectionism causing uncertainty


Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment China — Trade tensions on everyone’s lips

Our recent investor trip did not make us any more worried about an escalation of the trade war between China and the US. China will likely not devalue its currency or dump US treasuries, and China's economy is doing quite OK, even as credit and, in particular, shadow banking are being curbed. The recent opening up of China's bond market for foreigners looks like an attractive investment opportunity, in our view.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — GDP growth stays remarkably stable

  1. Official GDP growth within a narrow range
  2. China had a strong start to the year
  3. We see growth slowing gradually

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Markit PMI declined unexpectedly

  1. Official PMI jumped, but likely a rebound from New Year's distortion
  2. We see growth slowing gradually

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Strong start to 2018

  1. Economic activity was stronger than expected in January-February
  2. Data combined to avoid New Year distortion
  3. We expect growth to slow gradually

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — PMIs signal slightly slower growth

  1. The two manufacturing PMIs point in different directions
  2. We see growth slowing gradually

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk