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China

Global Macro Comment — SEK undervalued and USD overvalued

Although it is widely accepted that exchange rates vary substantially and are difficult to forecast, models based on economic fundamentals can track the evolution of the exchange rate rather well in the long run. Deviations between the actual and the estimated equilibrium exchange rates may be sustained for fairly long periods, but the exchange rate eventually tends to experience a correction toward its equilibrium lev-el. Our new fair value model indicates that the USD is currently overvalued, while the EUR, GBP and CNY are broadly in line with fundamentals and the JPY, NOK and the SEK are undervalued. Our fair value es-timate for USD/SEK is 7.5 and 9.5 for EUR/SEK.

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Forecast — Global economy on shaky ground

• A downturn is imminent
• Time for politicians to step up
• Interest rates remain low

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — A few positive signs amid general growth slowdown

  1. Official GDP growth at slowest pace since 2009, as expected
  2. Growth should stabilise later this year

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — An early (stimuli) Christmas gift

  1. China announces further economic stimuli
  2. Should alleviate financial markets’ concerns
  3. Growth target not yet announced

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — The economy slows further down

  1. Most activity indicators fell again in November
  2. Fixed investments helped by stimuli
  3. Stimuli not enough to avoid further slowdown

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment China — We expect the CNY to strengthen gradually

Following a marked CNY weakening over the summer, we now expect the CNY to strengthen gradually, as we believe China's authorities will stick to their goal of keeping the CNY "basically stable".

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk