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China

Fast Comment China — Party congress in full swing

  1. Long-term growth target not mentioned
  2. SOE reforms among main economic policy priorities
  3. Leadership for the coming five years to be formed

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Growth was still strong in Q3

  1. GDP growth fell only marginally to 6.8 percent in Q3
  2. Monthly indicators improved in September

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Global macro forecast — Tailwinds now, but autumn storms are coming

• The end of the recovery, into the boom
• Tricky reorientation of monetary policy
• Global slowdown in 2019

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment China — China Trip 2017: Healthy growth leaves room to tackle overcapacity

• Our travel notes: we left China more positive than we arrived
• Party congress will consolidate President Xi's power
• Cutbacks in China finally rebalance commodity markets

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — A shift in tide for the EURUSD

The weak USD seen throughout the year will gradually feed into higher inflation, which in turn will lift interest rate expectations for the US and strengthen the USD.

Fast Comment China — Activity indicators signal growth slowdown

  1. All three indicators disappointed in August
  2. Infrastructure is dragging down fixed investments
  3. Growth set to slow gradually

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk