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China

Fast Comment China — Manufacturing PMIs fall another month

  1. Trade tensions starting to bite
  2. Change of economic policy tide

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — PMIs confirm China’s slowdown

  1. Both PMIs slightly weaker than expected
  2. More weakness to come

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Global Macro Comment — The lay of "The Land"

What do we really know about inflation? The state of the art was recently laid out by top academics and central bank economists at the "Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics" conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In this comment we give a first-hand account of what was discussed in "The Land". The conference gave greater insight into the anchoring of inflation expectations at central banks' targets, mixed with a new understanding of inflation fundamentals. Change is often hard work, but policymakers would be smart to embrace these latest insights.

Johan Löf, Senior Economist | jolo22@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — The slowdown finally sets in

  1. Very weak activity figures in May
  2. Growth slowdown is here
  3. Monetary policy being eased rather than tightened

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Mixed picture from China’s industry

  1. Official PMI strengthens
  2. Growth should slow gradually ahead

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment China — How will looser capital restrictions impact the CNY?

Capital restrictions are once again being loosened in China, with domestic stock and bond markets being opened up for foreigners. This is part of China's strategy to integrate its financial markets with the rest of the world, and ultimately to make the CNY a new global reserve currency. Opening up does not necessarily imply net capital inflows and give a stronger currency; we continue to expect a slightly weaker CNY versus the USD in the short run amid general USD strength.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk