China - Macro Research - Handelsbanken Capital Markets

 

Research
Tip: To personalise the research list, click the gear symbol above.


Choose type:


China

Macro Comment China — How will looser capital restrictions impact the CNY?

Capital restrictions are once again being loosened in China, with domestic stock and bond markets being opened up for foreigners. This is part of China's strategy to integrate its financial markets with the rest of the world, and ultimately to make the CNY a new global reserve currency. Opening up does not necessarily imply net capital inflows and give a stronger currency; we continue to expect a slightly weaker CNY versus the USD in the short run amid general USD strength.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Industrial sector doing fine, but data mixed

  1. Industrial production growth jumped
  2. Overall growth set to slow

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Stable PMIs reassuring as New Year distortion subsides

  1. Both manufacturing PMIs were stable in April
  2. New Year distortion no longer in play
  3. Overall growth set to slow ahead

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Global macro forecast — Global boom starting to cool

• Stimulus measures in the US fuel growth but add risk
• Bottlenecks and higher interest rates slowing global growth
• Protectionism causing uncertainty


Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment China — Trade tensions on everyone’s lips

Our recent investor trip did not make us any more worried about an escalation of the trade war between China and the US. China will likely not devalue its currency or dump US treasuries, and China's economy is doing quite OK, even as credit and, in particular, shadow banking are being curbed. The recent opening up of China's bond market for foreigners looks like an attractive investment opportunity, in our view.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — GDP growth stays remarkably stable

  1. Official GDP growth within a narrow range
  2. China had a strong start to the year
  3. We see growth slowing gradually

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk