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China

Global Macro Forecast — Global economy on shaky ground

• A downturn is imminent
• Time for politicians to step up
• Interest rates remain low

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — A few positive signs amid general growth slowdown

  1. Official GDP growth at slowest pace since 2009, as expected
  2. Growth should stabilise later this year

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — An early (stimuli) Christmas gift

  1. China announces further economic stimuli
  2. Should alleviate financial markets’ concerns
  3. Growth target not yet announced

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — The economy slows further down

  1. Most activity indicators fell again in November
  2. Fixed investments helped by stimuli
  3. Stimuli not enough to avoid further slowdown

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment China — We expect the CNY to strengthen gradually

Following a marked CNY weakening over the summer, we now expect the CNY to strengthen gradually, as we believe China's authorities will stick to their goal of keeping the CNY "basically stable".

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — US-China cease-fire positive for China’s suffering industrial sector

  1. US tariff hike postponed
  2. China’s manufacturing PMIs on a downward trend
  3. Trade war far from over yet

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk