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China

Fast Comment China — PMIs surprisingly back at strong levels

  1. Both manufacturing PMIs increased unexpectedly
  2. Likely driven by higher commodity prices
  3. Slowdown ahead

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment China — An expected stronger USD means a weaker CNY vs. USD

We revise our USD/CNY forecast following an unexpected general USD weakening over the summer and an appreciation of the CNY versus the USD. Our underlying view of a stable effective exchange rate is unchanged and we still expect a weakening of the CNY versus the USD in the short term, but a stronger CNY in the long term.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — The downward trend for activity growth is back

  1. Gradual growth slowdown continues
  2. Only bright spot in July: Infrastructure investments
  3. We raise our GDP forecast

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment China — We expect a weaker CNY vs. USD, but only temporarily

The marked strengthening of the CNY versus the USD in late May prompts us to lower our short-term USD/CNY forecast. Revisions to our house view on the general USD strength also imply revisions to our CNY outlook. However, our underlying view is unchanged and we still expect a weakening of the CNY versus the USD in the short term, but a stronger CNY in the long term.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Monthly Macro Update — Recovery phase is about to end

US: 'Goldilocks scenario' will not last long
Eurozone: Approaching balanced growth
UK: Brexit negotiations thrown into chaos
Nordics: Short-term resilience

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — Slowdown continues, but no sign of a collapse

  1. Industrial production and retail sales growth stable in May
  2. Signs of housing market dampening measures kicking in
  3. No dramatic slowdown

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk