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China

Fast Comment China — The April decline in manufacturing PMI was not repeated in May

  1. Official PMI points to stability
  2. Growth will slow ahead

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Credit rating downgrade a blow to China’s push to attract foreign bond investors

  1. Limited negative effect on the overall economy
  2. More difficult to liberalise capital restrictions
  3. Authorities reject the arguments

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast comment China — The slowdown is here

  1. All indicators point to slower growth
  2. Industrial sector leading the slowdown – property to follow suit
  3. Do not fear a total collapse

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Economic growth accelerated in Q1

  1. We still expect growth to slow ahead…
  2. …despite strong momentum in March

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment China — Revised USD/CNY forecast; effective CNY stable

China's authorities seem more committed than earlier to their pledge of keeping the effective exchange rate "basically stable". Our new forecast of a generally stronger USD in the short run but weaker in 2018-19 should translate into a weakening of the CNY versus the USD in the short term, but a stronger CNY in the longer run.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Global macro forecast — US toward recession

• Europe pressured by structural problems
• The economic and political toolbox is empty
• Low growth in the Nordics

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se