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All China Publications

Monthly Macro Update — Stimulus quickly trumped by overheating

US: Low unemployment implies limited room for expansion
Eurozone: Weak growth points to further policy stimulus
The Nordics: Labour market mismatch keeps Nordic unemployment high

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist |

Fast Comment China — The industrial sector is fairly strong again

  1. Mixed PMI signals…
  2. …but October jump not reversed

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist |

The Week Ahead — November 28 – December 2

China: PMIs set to remain strong
Eurozone: Another gradual rise in inflation
Sweden:  We expect a strong increase in October's retail sales; 
               We forecast a strong Q3 rise in GDP, yet lower y-o-y growth
Norway:  Some rebound in retail sales following contraction in Q3

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist |

Macro Comment China — The Trump victory and China: Faster CNY depreciation

If the new President of the US does as he promised during the election campaign and imposes tariffs on Chinese imports, China will likely retaliate with, among other things, more marked CNY depreciation. Even the threat of a trade war could ignite accelerated CNY depreciation, and we thus adjust upward our USD/CNY forecast. A trade war would likely also have a negative effect on China's real economy, but we wait for signs that Trump will actually act on his words before revising down our GDP growth forecasts.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist |

Fast Comment China — Decent activity indicators in October

  1. A mixed bag of numbers
  2. Property investments growth strong for now

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist |

The Week Ahead — November 14-18

China: Industrial production growth set to increase
Sweden: Energy prices main driver of higher inflation in October;
               Slight uptick in our forecast for October unemployment
Norway: Modest mainland GDP growth

Anders Brunstedt, Economist |