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All China Publications

Swedish Rate Wrap — Oil price fall challenging the inflation trend

The global economic climate continues to be strong. We see evidence of this in the US where most macro data is exceeding market expectations. The recent harvest of data from China confirms a strong start to the year. The trend in global inflation is also positive. Previous monetary policy stimulus measures are feeding into the economy and contributing to the improvement that we are now seeing. This forms the basis of increasing long yields.
Inflation is partly driven by earlier energy price rises. The price of oil falling to USD 40/barrel by year-end represents a risk to our view of inflation and long yields. Despite this, we still believe that interest rates will continue to rise. We address this on page 3.

Pierre Carlsson, Strategist | pica01@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — China’s economy started 2017 on a strong note

  1. Construction investments keeps the economy running
  2. Lunar New Year holiday distorts data, as usually
  3. Less policy support needed

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

The Week Ahead — March 13 – 17

China: Mixed activity indicators
Sweden: Inflation in February likely to accelerate;
               We forecast a flat unemployment rate in February
Norway: Negligible changes to the key policy rate path

Anders Brunstedt, Economist | anbr42@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — China’s economy started 2017 on a fairly strong note according to the PMIs

  1. Both manufacturing PMIs rebounded in February
  2. PMIs and economic growth set to decline ahead
  3. Lunar New Year holiday might have distorted the picture

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

The Week Ahead — February 27 – March 3

China: PMIs have peaked
Eurozone: Headline inflation about to peak
Sweden: We expect 2016 GDP data to end the year with a strong increase;
               Retail sales likely to recover from December drop;
               We expect growth to recover for industrial production in Q1
Norway:  Retail sales bounce in January, but the trend remains weak

Anders Brunstedt, Economist | anbr42@handelsbanken.se

Monthly Macro Update — No smooth sailing in sight

US: In for a boom/bust episode
Eurozone: A tall order for the ECB
Nordics: Growing confidence

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se