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All China Publications

The Week Ahead — January 16-20

China: Official GDP growth set to remain 'remarkably' stable
Eurozone: Not much new; signs of hawkish pressure?

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

FX Pilot — China is trying to scare off speculators

-EURSEK: Slowdown in Swedish outperformance
-EURNOK: Low inflation puts downside pressure on NOK
-EURUSD: Relative inflation favours parity
-USDCNY: Chinese 'punish' speculators
-EURCZK: Is this the end of the current koruna policy?

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

The Week Ahead — December 22, 2016

China: PMIs (and the mini-cycle) have likely peaked
Eurozone: Jump in inflation
Norway: Did Black Friday boost November retail sales?

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no

Commodity Bulletin — The Holy Trinity for 2017?

China, Trump and OPEC
In 2016, three strong driving forces have emerged and pushed up commodities to the best asset class, with the index up by 30% in USD terms. For 2017, we be-lieve that only one of these will be able to exceed ex-pectations, and that is not Trump or China, but OPEC.

OPEC exceeded expectations
The bi-annual OPEC meeting in Vienna was a show of strength from the slumbering cartel. A package com-prising three strong components was presented: pro-duction quotas for each member country, a produc-tion ceiling for Iran and an agreement with non-OPEC producers, with Russia accounting for the largest re-duction. The market doubts its implementation; histor-ically OPEC has delivered about 80% of its agreed production cuts. On this occasion, we have confi-dence in OPEC and envisage a good equilibrium in the oil market during the second half of the year. This will lead to an average oil price of USD 60 for 2017, a significant increase from the previous forecast of USD 40.

China + Trump = base metals
The recovery seen by China this year originated in the focused stimulus measures toward the property mar-ket and infrastructure in 2015 - a tried-and-tested method that consumes a lot of industrial metals. China is now taking steps to cool the property market and this will lead to lower growth rates in investments and infrastructure in 2017. Trump's inauguration as Presi-dent will probably increase expectations still further during Q1, but there is then a risk of disappointment both in the US and China. Zinc and nickel are well placed in the supply side of the price equation, while copper and aluminium will be weighed down by high production. Compared with 2016, we see higher prices for all base metals in 2017 but consider the spot pric-es to be too high for all metals except nickel.

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — PMI so far unshaken by higher inflation and political uncertainty

  1. Composite PMI surprisingly stable
  2. Manufacturing the positive driver
  3. We still expect moderation ahead

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk