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All China Publications

The Week Ahead — February 27 – March 3

China: PMIs have peaked
Eurozone: Headline inflation about to peak
Sweden: We expect 2016 GDP data to end the year with a strong increase;
               Retail sales likely to recover from December drop;
               We expect growth to recover for industrial production in Q1
Norway:  Retail sales bounce in January, but the trend remains weak

Anders Brunstedt, Economist | anbr42@handelsbanken.se

Monthly Macro Update — No smooth sailing in sight

US: In for a boom/bust episode
Eurozone: A tall order for the ECB
Nordics: Growing confidence

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — Can Trump reverse globalisation?

President Donald Trump claims that countries with large trade surpluses are stealing jobs from the US. Therefore, he wants to reverse existing trade deals, which have made it possible to move American jobs to low-cost countries. However, historically, trying to move jobs between countries has had a bad track record. In the 1930s, it led to aggressive trade wars. In our view, common sense should prevail to stop politicians, including Donald Trump, from implementing such policies before a full-scale trade war ensues.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — Money market rates hiked

  1. Shift from monetary policy easing to tightening
  2. No dramatic monetary policy tightening ahead
  3. PMI from Markit signals growth will slow even without higher interest rates

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Official PMI did not point to renewed growth slowdown in January

  1. Stable official PMI
  2. Growth will soon gradually slow again

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

The Week Ahead — January 30 – February 3

China: PMIs (and the mini-cycle) have likely peaked
Eurozone: GDP accelerated at the end of 2016
Sweden: Industrial production likely to strengthen in December
Norway: Retail spending still subdued

Marius Gonsholt Hov, Economist | maho60@handelsbanken.no