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All China Publications

Fast Comment China — Manufacturing confidence plunges again

  1. Trade war hitting confidence
  2. Not enough stimuli to offset negative trade war impact

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Trade war hurting manufacturing confidence

  1. Both manufacturing PMIs dropped in September
  2. Not enough stimuli to offset negative trade war impact

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — No boost to infrastructure yet

  1. Mixed activity data – fixed investment growth still weak
  2. We see growth slowing further

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Mixed PMIs – a sign of stimuli?

  1. Trend is still downwards
  2. The first sign of stimuli kicking in?

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment China — No more CNY weakening expected

Following a marked CNY weakening over the summer, we do not expect much more weakening before re-newed strengthening sets in. Currency depreciation is not China's preferred weapon in the trade war, and we see signals that the authorities, if anything, are working for a stronger rather than weaker CNY. 

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Global macro forecast — A diverging world

• Geopolitical risks dominate
• US and China dictating the pace
• Shift in economic cycle imminent - slowdown in the pipeline

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se