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All China Publications

Fast Comment China — Slowdown not over yet

  1. Plunge in manufacturers’ confidence
  2. More stimulus lies ahead
  3. Room for policy easing is more limited than earlier

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment China — Temporary stabilisation from stimuli

Growth is slowing and more headwinds lie ahead. Further stimulus measures will most likely be implemented, but the room for policy easing is more limited than earlier. We expect stimuli to stabilise growth temporarily later this year, but see growth slowing again into next year.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Global Macro Comment — SEK undervalued and USD overvalued

Although it is widely accepted that exchange rates vary substantially and are difficult to forecast, models based on economic fundamentals can track the evolution of the exchange rate rather well in the long run. Deviations between the actual and the estimated equilibrium exchange rates may be sustained for fairly long periods, but the exchange rate eventually tends to experience a correction toward its equilibrium lev-el. Our new fair value model indicates that the USD is currently overvalued, while the EUR, GBP and CNY are broadly in line with fundamentals and the JPY, NOK and the SEK are undervalued. Our fair value es-timate for USD/SEK is 7.5 and 9.5 for EUR/SEK.

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Forecast — Global economy on shaky ground

• A downturn is imminent
• Time for politicians to step up
• Interest rates remain low

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se

Fast Comment China — A few positive signs amid general growth slowdown

  1. Official GDP growth at slowest pace since 2009, as expected
  2. Growth should stabilise later this year

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — An early (stimuli) Christmas gift

  1. China announces further economic stimuli
  2. Should alleviate financial markets’ concerns
  3. Growth target not yet announced

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk