Fast Comment China — Markit PMI declined unexpectedly

1. Official PMI jumped, but likely a rebound from New Year's distortion
2. We see growth slowing gradually

Fast Comment China — Strong start to 2018

1. Economic activity was stronger than expected in January-February
2. Data combined to avoid New Year distortion
3. We expect growth to slow gradually

Fast Comment China — PMIs signal slightly slower growth

1. The two manufacturing PMIs point in different directions
2. We see growth slowing gradually

Macro Comment China — Does the more powerful Xi dare lower the growth target?

China's national legislature, the National People's Congress, will convene in early March to elect new state leaders and decide on new economic targets and reform areas. There is little doubt that Xi Jinping will re-main in charge for another five-year term and also most likely beyond that. We foresee an unchanged growth target, but expect the rhetoric surrounding the target to pave the way for gradually slowing growth ahead. The Congress will also shed further light on the coming years' policy priorities, which include fighting overcapacity, pollution, and financial risks.

Macro Comment China — CNY should weaken soon as USD gains strength again

As the USD regains strength generally, we expect the CNY to weaken versus the USD, as we stick to our forecast of a stable effective Chinese exchange rate. From late 2018, we expect a stronger CNY, amid re-newed USD weakness.

Fast Comment China — Stable economic growth

1. GDP growth reported at 6.8 percent y-o-y in Q4
2. Sharp decline in retail sales growth in December
3. Gradual growth slowdown ahead