Macro Comment China — Does the more powerful Xi dare lower the growth target?

China's national legislature, the National People's Congress, will convene in early March to elect new state leaders and decide on new economic targets and reform areas. There is little doubt that Xi Jinping will re-main in charge for another five-year term and also most likely beyond that. We foresee an unchanged growth target, but expect the rhetoric surrounding the target to pave the way for gradually slowing growth ahead. The Congress will also shed further light on the coming years' policy priorities, which include fighting overcapacity, pollution, and financial risks.

Macro Comment China — CNY should weaken soon as USD gains strength again

As the USD regains strength generally, we expect the CNY to weaken versus the USD, as we stick to our forecast of a stable effective Chinese exchange rate. From late 2018, we expect a stronger CNY, amid re-newed USD weakness.

Fast Comment China — Stable economic growth

1. GDP growth reported at 6.8 percent y-o-y in Q4
2. Sharp decline in retail sales growth in December
3. Gradual growth slowdown ahead

Fast Commment China — The PBoC raises borrowing cost amid mixed growth signals

1. Growth indicators mixed in November
2. Interest rate hike with limited real impact
3. We see growth slowing

Fast Comment China — Manufacturing PMIs send mixed signals

1. Markit PMI slightly down, but official PMI slightly up
2. Economic growth is slowing

Fast Comment China — Property sector cool down weighs on growth

1. Retail sales growth disappointed in October
2. Services not captured by retail sales figures