Fast Comment China — Manufacturing confidence plunges again

1. Trade war hitting confidence
2. Not enough stimuli to offset negative trade war impact

Fast Comment China — Trade war hurting manufacturing confidence

1. Both manufacturing PMIs dropped in September
2. Not enough stimuli to offset negative trade war impact

Fast Comment China — No boost to infrastructure yet

1. Mixed activity data – fixed investment growth still weak
2. We see growth slowing further

Fast Comment China — Mixed PMIs – a sign of stimuli?

1. Trend is still downwards
2. The first sign of stimuli kicking in?

Macro Comment China — No more CNY weakening expected

Following a marked CNY weakening over the summer, we do not expect much more weakening before re-newed strengthening sets in. Currency depreciation is not China's preferred weapon in the trade war, and we see signals that the authorities, if anything, are working for a stronger rather than weaker CNY. 

Global macro forecast — A diverging world

• Geopolitical risks dominate
• US and China dictating the pace
• Shift in economic cycle imminent - slowdown in the pipeline