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All China Publications

Global macro forecast — Tailwinds now, but autumn storms are coming

• The end of the recovery, into the boom
• Tricky reorientation of monetary policy
• Global slowdown in 2019

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment China — China Trip 2017: Healthy growth leaves room to tackle overcapacity

• Our travel notes: we left China more positive than we arrived
• Party congress will consolidate President Xi's power
• Cutbacks in China finally rebalance commodity markets

Martin Jansson, Strategist | nija03@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — A shift in tide for the EURUSD

The weak USD seen throughout the year will gradually feed into higher inflation, which in turn will lift interest rate expectations for the US and strengthen the USD.

Fast Comment China — Activity indicators signal growth slowdown

  1. All three indicators disappointed in August
  2. Infrastructure is dragging down fixed investments
  3. Growth set to slow gradually

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — PMIs surprisingly back at strong levels

  1. Both manufacturing PMIs increased unexpectedly
  2. Likely driven by higher commodity prices
  3. Slowdown ahead

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment China — An expected stronger USD means a weaker CNY vs. USD

We revise our USD/CNY forecast following an unexpected general USD weakening over the summer and an appreciation of the CNY versus the USD. Our underlying view of a stable effective exchange rate is unchanged and we still expect a weakening of the CNY versus the USD in the short term, but a stronger CNY in the long term.

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk