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Fast Comment China

Fast Comment China — Economic growth accelerated in Q1

  1. We still expect growth to slow ahead…
  2. …despite strong momentum in March

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — China’s economy started 2017 on a strong note

  1. Construction investments keeps the economy running
  2. Lunar New Year holiday distorts data, as usually
  3. Less policy support needed

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — China’s economy started 2017 on a fairly strong note according to the PMIs

  1. Both manufacturing PMIs rebounded in February
  2. PMIs and economic growth set to decline ahead
  3. Lunar New Year holiday might have distorted the picture

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Money market rates hiked

  1. Shift from monetary policy easing to tightening
  2. No dramatic monetary policy tightening ahead
  3. PMI from Markit signals growth will slow even without higher interest rates

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Official PMI did not point to renewed growth slowdown in January

  1. Stable official PMI
  2. Growth will soon gradually slow again

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk

Fast Comment China — Official GDP figures indicate growth picked up late last year

  1. Remarkably stable 2016
  2. Monthly figures show mixed signals for December
  3. Several headwinds moving into 2017

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk