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Macro Forecast China

Greater China Macro Forecast — Slowing growth

- Stimulus stabilises short-run growth
- Reforms going slowly, though convertibility in sight
- Hong Kong and Taiwan growth recovering, but not at pre-crisis pace

Greater China Macro Forecast — Stimulus saves growth – again

- No immediate crisis likely
- Gradual slowdown to resume in 2015
- Pace of reform remains slow
- Slow currency appreciation as restrictions are eased

Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist |

Greater China Macro Forecast — Back on track, but slower

- Structural challenges ahead
- Growth recovery to be followed by new slowdown
- Hong Kong, Taiwan follow the mainland

Greater China Macro Forecast — Slowing growth, soft landing

- Modest policy reversal
- Internal and external risks…
- …but serious backlash unlikely

Chinese Macro Forecast — Seeking to beat overheating

- …but so does inflation
- Ineffective tightening continues…
- …but the probability of harsher measures rises gradually

Greater China Macro Forecast — Unbalanced growth

- Investment programme successful, but not lasting solution
- Inflation the new challenge
- Renminbi appreciation to resume