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Fast Comment ChinaSurprising jump in Caixin PMI

  1. Exporters still struggling
  2. We expect further weakness
Exporters still struggling
Manufacturing PMI from Caixin/Markit surprisingly jumped back above the 50 threshold, to 50.4 in August, from 49.9 in July. The official manufacturing PMI fell from 49.7 to 49.5, slightly worse than expected. Better sentiment among manufacturers surveyed by Markit could be an indication of government stimulus kicking in, as infrastructure investments especially have been boosted somewhat recently. Meanwhile, the sub-index for new export orders from Markit slid, likely because exporters are hurt from the escalating trade war and the global slowdown.
We expect further weakness
With only one of the two manufacturing PMIs back above 50, we do not change our view. We still expect growth to continue to decelerate amid persistent trade turmoil and because we expect further stimulus to only be of a measured magnitude.


Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen

Senior Economist

Latin America and China

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