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Published: 1 February 2019 | Makroøkonomisk Ugefokus | Keywords: Default
1 February 2019
Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Economist | bjro03@handelsbanken.dk
Published: 1 February 2019 | Fast Comment Denmark (da) | Keywords: Business Surveys Danish Central Bank EUR/DKK Exchanges Rates(Macro) Export - Import Foreign Trade Industrial Production Monetary Policy
Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk
Published: 1 February 2019 | Morgenmelding Danmark | Keywords: Morning Comment
Published: 31 January 2019 | Morgenmelding Danmark | Keywords: Morning Comment
31 January 2019
Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk
Published: 30 January 2019 | Macro Comment Global | Keywords: Default
30 January 2019
Although it is widely accepted that exchange rates vary substantially and are difficult to forecast, models based on economic fundamentals can track the evolution of the exchange rate rather well in the long run. Deviations between the actual and the estimated equilibrium exchange rates may be sustained for fairly long periods, but the exchange rate eventually tends to experience a correction toward its equilibrium lev-el. Our new fair value model indicates that the USD is currently overvalued, while the EUR, GBP and CNY are broadly in line with fundamentals and the JPY, NOK and the SEK are undervalued. Our fair value es-timate for USD/SEK is 7.5 and 9.5 for EUR/SEK.
Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se
Published: 30 January 2019 | Global Macro Forecast | Keywords: Default
• A downturn is imminent• Time for politicians to step up• Interest rates remain low
Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se