Makroøkonomisk Ugefokus — Uge 6 – BNP-tal fra USA burde blive offentliggjort næste uge

Danish Comment — Danske nøgletal - uge 6: Nationalbanken ventes at have interveneret (lidt) igen

1. Valutareserven ventes at være faldet med ca. 4 mia. kr. i januar som følge af fortsat - om end mere begrænset - intervention fra Nationalbanken
2. Industriproduktionen ventes at være faldet med 1,5% m/m i december
3. Vareeksporten ventes at være faldet med 2% m/m i december, mens vi venter en lille stigning i importen

Morgenmelding Danmark —

Morgenmelding Danmark —

Global Macro Comment — SEK undervalued and USD overvalued

Although it is widely accepted that exchange rates vary substantially and are difficult to forecast, models based on economic fundamentals can track the evolution of the exchange rate rather well in the long run. Deviations between the actual and the estimated equilibrium exchange rates may be sustained for fairly long periods, but the exchange rate eventually tends to experience a correction toward its equilibrium lev-el. Our new fair value model indicates that the USD is currently overvalued, while the EUR, GBP and CNY are broadly in line with fundamentals and the JPY, NOK and the SEK are undervalued. Our fair value es-timate for USD/SEK is 7.5 and 9.5 for EUR/SEK.

Global Macro Forecast — Global economy on shaky ground

• A downturn is imminent
• Time for politicians to step up
• Interest rates remain low