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EMU Comment — PMI rises for the first time in five months

  1. Composite PMI surprised on the upside...
  2. ...due to stronger Service PMI
  3. Employment and inflation improved

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

Global Macro Comment — The lay of "The Land"

What do we really know about inflation? The state of the art was recently laid out by top academics and central bank economists at the "Inflation: Drivers & Dynamics" conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. In this comment we give a first-hand account of what was discussed in "The Land". The conference gave greater insight into the anchoring of inflation expectations at central banks' targets, mixed with a new understanding of inflation fundamentals. Change is often hard work, but policymakers would be smart to embrace these latest insights.

Johan Löf, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — The ECB expects to hike rates in September 2019 at the earliest

  1. ECB ends QE as expected and gives more explicit guidance on rates
  2. Inflation forecast revised up, but growth forecast revised down
  3. Rate hike in September at the earliest?

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — Inflation back in line with the ECB's target

  1. Inflation surprised on the upside, as hinted by recent price data
  2. Inflation surging above the ECB's forecast
  3. Unemployment gap is now closed

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — PMI unexpectedly down to an 18-month low

  1. Business sentiment weakens further
  2. Weakness found within both services and manufacturing
  3. Growth expectations challenged further

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — Inflation weaker than expected; but seasonal distortions

  1. Core inflation surprisingly weak
  2. Might delay next exit step from the ECB

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |