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Eurozone

EMU Comment — Compromised stimulus package is no 'big bazooka'

  1. 10 basis points rate cut, reinforced forward guidance
  2. Smaller but open-ended quantitative easing returns in Q4, tiering introduced, changes to TLTRO-III
  3. Compromise compromises the expected effect of the new package

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist | erme03@handelsbanken.se

Macro Comment Eurozone — ECB: Curb your enthusiasm

Fundamentals indicate a need for more rate cuts, but that is hampered by concerns about negative rates. Forward guidance and tiering are unlikely to make much of a difference. Another round of QE requires a shift to relatively riskier assets, and faces significant external and internal obstacles. Built-up market disappointments have reached levels not seen since past crisis episodes. The ECB's policy limitations and lack of fiscal support mean the inflation target is unlikely to be met by the end of 2021.

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist | erme03@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — Eurozone inflation stuck at 1%

  1. Eurozone inflation stuck at 1%
  2. Suppressed inflation in France, Germany and, particularly, Italy
  3. ECB set to push for fresh stimulus amid internal disagreements

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist | erme03@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — Better than expected eurozone PMI as Germany lags

  1. Better than expected eurozone PMI
  2. Germany: Manufacturing PMI sluggish, but better than expected
  3. France: Solid performance in services complemented by return to manufacturing growth

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist | erme03@handelsbanken.se

Global macro forecast — Global tensions - but no recession

• Challenging road ahead for the Nordics
• Monetary policy will ease but not remove the pain
• Markets will remain uneasy

Christina Nyman, Chief Economist | chny09@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — Slower growth, subdued inflation shows euro area struggles

  1. Slower GDP growth illustrates euro area struggle
  2. Inflation remains subdued, unemployment stays flat
  3. Concerns over recent data feeds expectations of fresh stimulus from the ECB

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist | erme03@handelsbanken.se