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Eurozone

EMU Comment — ECB on the dovish side

  1. ECB kept all key interest unchanged
  2. Asset purchases will continue as planned, and no formal discussions on tapering have taken place
  3. Forward guidance kept unchanged as inflation stays subdued

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Draghi believes there is a need for tighter policy "parameters"

  1. Draghi sounded hawkish on policy instruments
  2. This time is different; no classic tightening cycle

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Eurozone economy losing some steam

  1. Preliminary composite PMI fell from 56.8 to 55.7 in June - below consensus
  2. Despite the drop, PMI still points to solid growth in Q2
  3. Price pressure still too weak for the ECB's liking

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

Monthly Macro Update — Recovery phase is about to end

US: 'Goldilocks scenario' will not last long
Eurozone: Approaching balanced growth
UK: Brexit negotiations thrown into chaos
Nordics: Short-term resilience

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — ECB moving towards neutral

  1. The ECB reduced its easing bias
  2. Downgrade of inflation forecast
  3. No news on exit strategy

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment: ECB preview — Just how gradual will the ECB be?

  1. A robust recovery, but rising inflation trend still lags
  2. ECB to signal less need for accommodation not increased need for tightening
  3. We do not expect a conclusion to exit strategy discussions

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk