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EMU

EMU Comment — PMI so far unshaken by higher inflation and political uncertainty

  1. Composite PMI surprisingly stable
  2. Manufacturing the positive driver
  3. We still expect moderation ahead

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Tapering at the ECB, but increased flexibility

  1. Tapering of monthly purchases with a possible increase in flexibility
  2. APP conditions eased
  3. Forecasts unchanged; too optimistic

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Monthly Macro Update — Stimulus quickly trumped by overheating

US: Low unemployment implies limited room for expansion
Eurozone: Weak growth points to further policy stimulus
The Nordics: Labour market mismatch keeps Nordic unemployment high

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — PMI reaches highest level this year

  1. Composite PMI surprisingly strong
  2. German Manufacturing PMI fell
  3. PMI increase not expected to continue

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Global Macro Comment — Trump is more focused on negotiations than a trade war

Donald Trump is unlikely to start his term of office by introducing high tariffs on imports from Mexico and China, even though he can do this without the approval of Congress. Rather, the "super-negotiator" Trump will prefer to retain this threat and start negotiations with these countries in order to improve US trade conditions. Despite Trump's election campaign promises, we see very little likelihood of a major trade war.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se