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EMU

EMU Comment — PMI stays robust - despite global weakness

  1. PMI stays at healthy level
  2. Manufacturing PMI decouples from global trend
  3. ECB on track to change monetary stance

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment — Macron wins, clearing all fears of Frexit

• France will stay in the EU
• Difficult task awaits Macron
• Only a mild positive market reaction expected


France will stay in the EU
Emmanuel Macron scored a landslide victory against Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election on Sunday, May 5, in line with expectations. The important message to the rest of the EU and the eurozone is that there is no risk of France exiting either of the two over the nearest five years, in our view. Macron is a strong EU advocate and wants a tighter union.

Difficult task awaits Macron
Macron is going from an easy victory to something much more challenging, approaching the first round of the parliamentary vote on June 11. The latest opinion poll shows that Macron’s party, En Marche!, will become the largest party in the National Assembly but will not enjoy an absolute majority. However, it is important to treat a poll released so early with caution: parliamentary campaigns are only just beginning, and the result of the presidential race is also likely to have an impact. Macron has promised much-needed reforms in the labour market and cuts in public sector spending. Many French politicians have tried to do this before him but have failed due to a powerful public sector, labour unions and parliamentary opposition.

Only a mild positive reaction expected
Financial markets priced out almost all of the probability of a Le Pen victory following the first round of elections in April. Consequently, we expect only a mild positive reaction as markets reopen.

Lars Henriksson, FX Strategist | lahe06@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — Growth stable but looks set to increase

  1. Growth stable despite robust sentiment
  2. Personal consumption restrained by higher inflation
  3. ECB likely on track to change guidance

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Draghi stayed put for now

  1. Status quo message as expected
  2. Draghi slightly more optimistic
  3. June policy meeting could turn out more interesting

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Preview - ECB to maintain status quo for now

  1. ECB Governing Council members have emphasised unchanged policy since March
  2. Next (small) step expected in June

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Makrokommentar — Frankrike i stort behov av reformer

Tillväxten i Frankrike har under senare år varit svagare än i euroområdet. En ineffektivt stor offentlig sek-tor, höga företagsskatter och låg rörlighet på arbetsmarknaden hindrar den ekonomiska återhämtningen. Det behövs strukturreformer som åtgärdar dessa problem. Resultatet i presidentvalet blir därför avgörande för Frankrikes ekonomiska utveckling.

Jimmy Boumediene, Head of Forecasting | jibo01@handelsbanken.se