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EMU

Monthly Macro Update — No smooth sailing in sight

US: In for a boom/bust episode
Eurozone: A tall order for the ECB
Nordics: Growing confidence

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — Surprise jump in February PMI

  1. Growth momentum building further in early 2017
  2. Increased optimism in service sector
  3. Supports a more hawkish ECB

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Global Macro Comment — Can Trump reverse globalisation?

President Donald Trump claims that countries with large trade surpluses are stealing jobs from the US. Therefore, he wants to reverse existing trade deals, which have made it possible to move American jobs to low-cost countries. However, historically, trying to move jobs between countries has had a bad track record. In the 1930s, it led to aggressive trade wars. In our view, common sense should prevail to stop politicians, including Donald Trump, from implementing such policies before a full-scale trade war ensues.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — Higher growth and inflation; lower unemployment

  1. Growth in 2016 was higher than expected
  2. Inflation spiked and unemployment fell
  3. Inflation close to the ECB's target

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Monthly Macro Update — Politics take centre stage

US: Moment of truth for Trump
Eurozone: Strong finish to 2016 bodes well for 2017
Nordics: Drifting apart

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — PMI decreased but still points to solid start for 2017

  1. First decline in four months
  2. German service sector optimism stalled
  3. PMI could have peaked for now

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk