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EMU

EMU Comment — PMI unexpectedly continues to rise

  1. PMI suggests GDP growth will pick up further
  2. Core countries probably led the increase
  3. Supports a more hawkish ECB

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — A dovish ECB with a hawkish twist from Draghi

  1. The ECB kept all interest rates and non-monetary measures unchanged, as expected
  2. GDP and inflation forecasts were revised up slightly...
  3. ...but risk balance has become more balanced, and Draghi declared war against deflation as over

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Headline inflation back to 2%, but core inflation stable

  1. Inflation rose to 2 percent
  2. Stable core inflation, but unemployment still falling
  3. Is the ECB becoming more balanced?

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Monthly Macro Update — No smooth sailing in sight

US: In for a boom/bust episode
Eurozone: A tall order for the ECB
Nordics: Growing confidence

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — Surprise jump in February PMI

  1. Growth momentum building further in early 2017
  2. Increased optimism in service sector
  3. Supports a more hawkish ECB

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Global Macro Comment — Can Trump reverse globalisation?

President Donald Trump claims that countries with large trade surpluses are stealing jobs from the US. Therefore, he wants to reverse existing trade deals, which have made it possible to move American jobs to low-cost countries. However, historically, trying to move jobs between countries has had a bad track record. In the 1930s, it led to aggressive trade wars. In our view, common sense should prevail to stop politicians, including Donald Trump, from implementing such policies before a full-scale trade war ensues.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se