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EMU

Monthly Macro Update — Stimulus quickly trumped by overheating

US: Low unemployment implies limited room for expansion
Eurozone: Weak growth points to further policy stimulus
The Nordics: Labour market mismatch keeps Nordic unemployment high

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — PMI reaches highest level this year

  1. Composite PMI surprisingly strong
  2. German Manufacturing PMI fell
  3. PMI increase not expected to continue

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Global Macro Comment — Trump is more focused on negotiations than a trade war

Donald Trump is unlikely to start his term of office by introducing high tariffs on imports from Mexico and China, even though he can do this without the approval of Congress. Rather, the "super-negotiator" Trump will prefer to retain this threat and start negotiations with these countries in order to improve US trade conditions. Despite Trump's election campaign promises, we see very little likelihood of a major trade war.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Comment — Trump wins the presidential election

Trump has won the American presidential election, and both the House of Representatives and the Senate have Republican majorities. The major uncertainty regarding President Trump's political agenda will probably lie like a wet blanket over the economy in the near future.

Petter Lundvik, Economist | pelu16@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — Stable growth and inflation in the eurozone

  1. GDP growth continues at a modest pace
  2. Inflation only increased a notch
  3. ECB is not under pressure to deliver new stimulus for now

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — PMI unexpectedly rose to highest level this year

  1. Surprisingly strong October PMI
  2. Temporary improvement in manufacturing?
  3. Prices increase for the first time since 2011

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk