EMU Comment — ECB cuts rate - more cuts to come?

1. Key rate cut to record low 0.50%
2. ECB only considering ABS to SMEs
3. EUR weaker/bond yields fell on further rate cut prospects

Global macro forecast — Brighter outlook, but heavy clouds over Club Med

US weathers fiscal cliff headwinds
Eurozone: No room for ECB hikes before 2018
China: Containing risk at the cost of growth
Sweden: Growth recovery, but little boost for employment

EMU Comment — ECB more uncertain on recovery prospects

1. No rate changes, but recovery uncertainties
2. No new unconventional measures...
3. ...But ECB looks more ready to act

Monthly Macro Update — Widening rift in the eurozone to haunt markets again

China: Slowdown coming earlier than expected
Eurozone: The German locomotive has decoupled
US: Optimism is back, despite persistent problems
Sweden: Brighter employment outlook, but sluggish GDP path
Bond markets: Long bond yields to rise at a moderate pace

EMU Comment — ECB not as dovish as expected

1. Dovish expectations not met
2. Growth estimates revised down - but no change of profile
3. We keep expectations of rate cut

Monthly Macro Update — Eurozone still a global headache

China: Overheating concerns resurfacing
Eurozone: No room for ECB rate hikes before 2016-17
US: Fed to hike in mid-2014, not in mid-2015 as it states
Sweden: Rebound expected after marked drop in Q4 GDP