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EMU

EMU Comment — Preview - ECB to maintain status quo for now

  1. ECB Governing Council members have emphasised unchanged policy since March
  2. Next (small) step expected in June

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Makrokommentar — Frankrike i stort behov av reformer

Tillväxten i Frankrike har under senare år varit svagare än i euroområdet. En ineffektivt stor offentlig sek-tor, höga företagsskatter och låg rörlighet på arbetsmarknaden hindrar den ekonomiska återhämtningen. Det behövs strukturreformer som åtgärdar dessa problem. Resultatet i presidentvalet blir därför avgörande för Frankrikes ekonomiska utveckling.

Jimmy Boumediene, Head of Forecasting | jibo01@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — PMI surprised on the upside again, reaching a six-year high

  1. PMI rose to a six-year high
  2. No signs of French election worries
  3. ECB status quo for some time yet

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Macro Comment Eurozone — French economy needs a reformist

In France, the presidential election is looming and the economy is in dire need of reforms. Although France has been experiencing a cyclical upswing in recent years, we note its relative performance to European peers is poor and it has been impeded by unfavourable structural factors. In our view, the epicentre of France's economic problems is a state that is too large, leading to high taxation and poor competitiveness. The question is whether a reformist can come to power, and if so, whether such a person can find support to address these challenges.

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Global macro forecast — US toward recession

• Europe pressured by structural problems
• The economic and political toolbox is empty
• Low growth in the Nordics

Ann Öberg, Chief Economist | anob04@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — Inflation decreased more than expected in March

  1. Headline inflation has peaked
  2. Core inflation also weaker...
  3. ...but expected to trend up

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk