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Eurozone

Global Macro Forecast — Interest rate hikes despite lower growth

• Geopolitical risks dominate
• Divergence in global growth
• Central banks defy concerns

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — GDP growth disappoints; slowest in more than four years

  1. GDP growth halved in Q3
  2. Italian growth came to a standstill
  3. ECB already expected weaker growth

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Weaknesses not stirring the ECB's hand

  1. Copy/paste monetary policy decision
  2. Risks still balanced
  3. We largely agree with the ECB “plan”

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — PMI the lowest in more than two years

  1. The October PMI was surprisingly weak
  2. Also weaker service sentiment
  3. Risks on the downside increase

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Core inflation surprisingly weak

  1. Headline inflation rose as expected
  2. Core inflation surprisingly fell
  3. Did not lend support to Draghi's comments

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — PMI suggests fairly stable Q3 growth

  1. Stable PMI in Q3
  2. Manufacturing slow-down continues
  3. The ECB concerns gained some support

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk