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Eurozone

EMU Comment — PMI unexpectedly down to an 18-month low

  1. Business sentiment weakens further
  2. Weakness found within both services and manufacturing
  3. Growth expectations challenged further

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Inflation weaker than expected; but seasonal distortions

  1. Core inflation surprisingly weak
  2. Might delay next exit step from the ECB

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — GDP growth has likely peaked

  1. Slowdown partly temporary
  2. Domestic demand likely weakened
  3. Unemployment stable - but trend is still down

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Neutral ECB, despite signs of weakness

    The ECB is not overly concerned As widely expected, today's ECB policy meeting offered little news compared to the previous policy meeting in March. The ECB left interest rates and forward guidance unchanged. Hence, the bank’s monetary policy stance is unchanged and fairly neutral. Our focus was on possible signs that the ECB views the recent worsening of economic data as challenging the positive growth outlook (graph).

    Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Global macro forecast — Global boom starting to cool

• Stimulus measures in the US fuel growth but add risk
• Bottlenecks and higher interest rates slowing global growth
• Protectionism causing uncertainty


Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — PMI stabilises in April

  1. PMI Composite surprised on the upside
  2. German and French service confidence rose
  3. Supports a steady ECB

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk