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Eurozone

Macro Comment Eurozone — European Parliament elections: A battle for the future of Europe

This month's upcoming elections to the European Parliament are set to be particularly important, given the timing of selection processes for key EU leadership positions. In line with improving economic conditions, trust in EU institutions has improved. Although anti-establishment parties are likely to boost their support, riding on anti-incumbent sentiment over immigration policies and pocketbook economics, the probability of translating this into policy shifts within the EU is relatively low. Differences in populist parties' ideological as well as policy preferences are likely to raise barriers to a cohesive eurosceptic bloc. More likely is a coalition including either the greens or the liberals, which if anything ought to result in more EU integration rather than less. Yet the coming bargaining process as the ruling coalition in the European Parliament moves from two to more parties still carries risks, and our view is that this factor will offset the relief of populists failing to gain significant power, with an expected net neutral market impact overall.

Erik Meyersson, Senior Economist | erme03@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — Inflation higher than expected; but mind the Easter effect

  1. Core inflation back up at a six-month high
  2. Another source of comfort for the ECB

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Better growth and unemployment numbers than expected

  1. GDP growth has stabilised
  2. Unemployment rate declined another notch
  3. The ECB might find some comfort in the numbers

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Downbeat ECB - details on TLTROIII and mitigating tools coming up

  1. Growth momentum slowing - no details of TLTROIII and mitigating tools yet
  2. We expect focus on ECB easing to strengthen

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Global Macro Forecast — Meagre shelter for the global economy

• Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
• Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
• Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — PMI disappoints due to worsening manufacturing agony

  1. Composite PMI decreased unexpectedly in March
  2. German manufacturing confidence back at 2012 lows

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk