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Eurozone

EMU Comment — Neutral ECB, despite signs of weakness

    The ECB is not overly concerned As widely expected, today's ECB policy meeting offered little news compared to the previous policy meeting in March. The ECB left interest rates and forward guidance unchanged. Hence, the bank’s monetary policy stance is unchanged and fairly neutral. Our focus was on possible signs that the ECB views the recent worsening of economic data as challenging the positive growth outlook (graph).

    Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Global macro forecast — Global boom starting to cool

• Stimulus measures in the US fuel growth but add risk
• Bottlenecks and higher interest rates slowing global growth
• Protectionism causing uncertainty


Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research | anob04@handelsbanken.se

EMU Comment — PMI stabilises in April

  1. PMI Composite surprised on the upside
  2. German and French service confidence rose
  3. Supports a steady ECB

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — PMI surprises on the downside again

  1. Composite PMI fell to lowest level in more than a year
  2. Increases risks to growth outlook this year

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — ECB takes another baby step toward tightening

  1. ECB drops easing bias
  2. Minor tweaks to verbal intervention and ECB projections

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Largest decline in PMI in five years

  1. Elevated levels from previous months hard to sustain
  2. Weakness was broad based
  3. Only market jitters? ...ECB probably not overly concerned

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk