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Eurozone

Global Macro Forecast — Global economy on shaky ground

• A downturn is imminent
• Time for politicians to step up
• Interest rates remain low

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se

EMU comment — Prospects for a rate rise waning

  1. ECB sees risks on the downside
  2. March meeting a live bet for change in guidance

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Further weakness in PMI, but ECB not likely to react (yet)

  1. PMI decreased for another month…
  2. …despite that German service confidence rose
  3. The ECB not likely to respond yet

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — PMI dragged down by French unrest

  1. Deteriorating sentiment gained strength
  2. PMI dragged down by French unrest
  3. Adds to ECB’s downside risks

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — ECB: "Continuous confidence with increasing caution"

  1. The end of asset purchases is a fact
  2. Risks are still broadly balanced
  3. ECB delivered a vague dovish signal

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Soft data on unemployment and inflation

  1. The labour market improvement gearing down
  2. Core inflation slowed
  3. ECB locked-in on normalisation

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk