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Eurozone

EMU Comment — Low inflation maintains "dovish" pressure on the ECB

  1. Core inflation decreased
  2. Unemployment still moving down
  3. ECB poised to react

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Finally an increase in PMI

  1. First increase in PMI in six months
  2. Service sector recovers, but German manufactures even more downbeat
  3. Somewhat comforting for the ECB

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Growth kept the subdued pace in Q4

  1. Growth stable, despite sentiment collapse
  2. Italy in recession
  3. Moderate growth ahead; labour market to gradually turn around

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

Global Macro Comment — SEK undervalued and USD overvalued

Although it is widely accepted that exchange rates vary substantially and are difficult to forecast, models based on economic fundamentals can track the evolution of the exchange rate rather well in the long run. Deviations between the actual and the estimated equilibrium exchange rates may be sustained for fairly long periods, but the exchange rate eventually tends to experience a correction toward its equilibrium lev-el. Our new fair value model indicates that the USD is currently overvalued, while the EUR, GBP and CNY are broadly in line with fundamentals and the JPY, NOK and the SEK are undervalued. Our fair value es-timate for USD/SEK is 7.5 and 9.5 for EUR/SEK.

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Forecast — Global economy on shaky ground

• A downturn is imminent
• Time for politicians to step up
• Interest rates remain low

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se

EMU comment — Prospects for a rate rise waning

  1. ECB sees risks on the downside
  2. March meeting a live bet for change in guidance

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk