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Global Macro Forecast — Meagre shelter for the global economy

• Economic slowdown and long period of weak growth
• Persistent political worries; households increasingly cautious
• Central banks change course, but their toolboxes look empty

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research |

EMU Comment — PMI disappoints due to worsening manufacturing agony

  1. Composite PMI decreased unexpectedly in March
  2. German manufacturing confidence back at 2012 lows

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — ECB postpones rate hikes, announces TLTRO3

  1. ECB changes rate hike guidance, sees rates on hold througout 2019
  2. TLTRO3 announced
  3. Softer than expected

Claes Måhlén, Chief Strategist |

EMU Comment — Low inflation maintains "dovish" pressure on the ECB

  1. Core inflation decreased
  2. Unemployment still moving down
  3. ECB poised to react

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — Finally an increase in PMI

  1. First increase in PMI in six months
  2. Service sector recovers, but German manufactures even more downbeat
  3. Somewhat comforting for the ECB

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — Growth kept the subdued pace in Q4

  1. Growth stable, despite sentiment collapse
  2. Italy in recession
  3. Moderate growth ahead; labour market to gradually turn around

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |