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Eurozone

Global Macro Comment — SEK undervalued and USD overvalued

Although it is widely accepted that exchange rates vary substantially and are difficult to forecast, models based on economic fundamentals can track the evolution of the exchange rate rather well in the long run. Deviations between the actual and the estimated equilibrium exchange rates may be sustained for fairly long periods, but the exchange rate eventually tends to experience a correction toward its equilibrium lev-el. Our new fair value model indicates that the USD is currently overvalued, while the EUR, GBP and CNY are broadly in line with fundamentals and the JPY, NOK and the SEK are undervalued. Our fair value es-timate for USD/SEK is 7.5 and 9.5 for EUR/SEK.

Anders Bergvall, Senior Economist | anbe83@handelsbanken.se

Global Macro Forecast — Global economy on shaky ground

• A downturn is imminent
• Time for politicians to step up
• Interest rates remain low

Lena Fahlén, Head of Economic Research | leli15@handelsbanken.se

EMU comment — Prospects for a rate rise waning

  1. ECB sees risks on the downside
  2. March meeting a live bet for change in guidance

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Further weakness in PMI, but ECB not likely to react (yet)

  1. PMI decreased for another month…
  2. …despite that German service confidence rose
  3. The ECB not likely to respond yet

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — PMI dragged down by French unrest

  1. Deteriorating sentiment gained strength
  2. PMI dragged down by French unrest
  3. Adds to ECB’s downside risks

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — ECB: "Continuous confidence with increasing caution"

  1. The end of asset purchases is a fact
  2. Risks are still broadly balanced
  3. ECB delivered a vague dovish signal

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk