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Eurozone

EMU Comment — Tapering on track, despite stronger EUR

  1. Stronger EUR requires monitoring; inflation forecast lowered a notch
  2. October meeting will reveal tapering plans

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — No surprises from the ECB's monetary policy decisions

    No change in forward guidanceAt today’s policy meeting, the ECB did not make any changes to the monetary policy tools. This was widely expected. Neither did the ECB change its forward guidance on interest rates. They are expected to remain unchanged for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases. However, the ECB repeated that it is ready to increase the size and duration of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) if the economic outlook or financial conditions worsen.

    Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — PMI increased unexpectedly in August

  1. First PMI increase in four months
  2. Manufacturing sentiment more upbeat despite stronger EUR
  3. Does not change the scene much for the ECB

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Steady robust growth in Q2

  1. Robust GDP in H1, moderating in H2
  2. Net trade still important growth driver
  3. Keeps the ECB on a more hawkish track

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — ECB on the dovish side

  1. ECB kept all key interest unchanged
  2. Asset purchases will continue as planned, and no formal discussions on tapering have taken place
  3. Forward guidance kept unchanged as inflation stays subdued

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark | jeas01@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Draghi believes there is a need for tighter policy "parameters"

  1. Draghi sounded hawkish on policy instruments
  2. This time is different; no classic tightening cycle

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk