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Eurozone

EMU Comment — The ECB expects to hike rates in September 2019 at the earliest

  1. ECB ends QE as expected and gives more explicit guidance on rates
  2. Inflation forecast revised up, but growth forecast revised down
  3. Rate hike in September at the earliest?

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Inflation back in line with the ECB's target

  1. Inflation surprised on the upside, as hinted by recent price data
  2. Inflation surging above the ECB's forecast
  3. Unemployment gap is now closed

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — PMI unexpectedly down to an 18-month low

  1. Business sentiment weakens further
  2. Weakness found within both services and manufacturing
  3. Growth expectations challenged further

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Inflation weaker than expected; but seasonal distortions

  1. Core inflation surprisingly weak
  2. Might delay next exit step from the ECB

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — GDP growth has likely peaked

  1. Slowdown partly temporary
  2. Domestic demand likely weakened
  3. Unemployment stable - but trend is still down

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk

EMU Comment — Neutral ECB, despite signs of weakness

    The ECB is not overly concerned As widely expected, today's ECB policy meeting offered little news compared to the previous policy meeting in March. The ECB left interest rates and forward guidance unchanged. Hence, the bank’s monetary policy stance is unchanged and fairly neutral. Our focus was on possible signs that the ECB views the recent worsening of economic data as challenging the positive growth outlook (graph).

    Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist | ragu02@handelsbanken.dk