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Global macro forecast — Tailwinds now, but autumn storms are coming

• The end of the recovery, into the boom
• Tricky reorientation of monetary policy
• Global slowdown in 2019

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research |

EMU Comment — PMI surprises on the upside in September

  1. PMI regained the lost territory
  2. Both German and French business confidence surprised strongly on the upside
  3. Supports ECB’s plans of removing stimulus

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

Global Macro Comment — A shift in tide for the EURUSD

The weak USD seen throughout the year will gradually feed into higher inflation, which in turn will lift interest rate expectations for the US and strengthen the USD.

EMU Comment — Tapering on track, despite stronger EUR

  1. Stronger EUR requires monitoring; inflation forecast lowered a notch
  2. October meeting will reveal tapering plans

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — No surprises from the ECB's monetary policy decisions

    No change in forward guidanceAt today’s policy meeting, the ECB did not make any changes to the monetary policy tools. This was widely expected. Neither did the ECB change its forward guidance on interest rates. They are expected to remain unchanged for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases. However, the ECB repeated that it is ready to increase the size and duration of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) if the economic outlook or financial conditions worsen.

    Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — PMI increased unexpectedly in August

  1. First PMI increase in four months
  2. Manufacturing sentiment more upbeat despite stronger EUR
  3. Does not change the scene much for the ECB

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |