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EMU Comment — Eurozone economy losing some steam

  1. Preliminary composite PMI fell from 56.8 to 55.7 in June - below consensus
  2. Despite the drop, PMI still points to solid growth in Q2
  3. Price pressure still too weak for the ECB's liking

Jes Asmussen, Chief Economist Denmark |

Monthly Macro Update — Recovery phase is about to end

US: 'Goldilocks scenario' will not last long
Eurozone: Approaching balanced growth
UK: Brexit negotiations thrown into chaos
Nordics: Short-term resilience

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research |

EMU Comment — ECB moving towards neutral

  1. The ECB reduced its easing bias
  2. Downgrade of inflation forecast
  3. No news on exit strategy

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment: ECB preview — Just how gradual will the ECB be?

  1. A robust recovery, but rising inflation trend still lags
  2. ECB to signal less need for accommodation not increased need for tightening
  3. We do not expect a conclusion to exit strategy discussions

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — PMI stays robust - despite global weakness

  1. PMI stays at healthy level
  2. Manufacturing PMI decouples from global trend
  3. ECB on track to change monetary stance

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

Macro Comment — Macron wins, clearing all fears of Frexit

• France will stay in the EU
• Difficult task awaits Macron
• Only a mild positive market reaction expected

France will stay in the EU
Emmanuel Macron scored a landslide victory against Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election on Sunday, May 5, in line with expectations. The important message to the rest of the EU and the eurozone is that there is no risk of France exiting either of the two over the nearest five years, in our view. Macron is a strong EU advocate and wants a tighter union.

Difficult task awaits Macron
Macron is going from an easy victory to something much more challenging, approaching the first round of the parliamentary vote on June 11. The latest opinion poll shows that Macron’s party, En Marche!, will become the largest party in the National Assembly but will not enjoy an absolute majority. However, it is important to treat a poll released so early with caution: parliamentary campaigns are only just beginning, and the result of the presidential race is also likely to have an impact. Macron has promised much-needed reforms in the labour market and cuts in public sector spending. Many French politicians have tried to do this before him but have failed due to a powerful public sector, labour unions and parliamentary opposition.

Only a mild positive reaction expected
Financial markets priced out almost all of the probability of a Le Pen victory following the first round of elections in April. Consequently, we expect only a mild positive reaction as markets reopen.

Lars Henriksson, Strategist |