Eurozone - Macro Research - Handelsbanken Capital Markets


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EMU Comment — Improving economy but modest inflation

  1. Improvement in real economy fails to translate to higher inflation
  2. Robust GDP growth to continue
  3. Weaker-than-expected inflation

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — Draghi succeeded in a dovish tapering

  1. Draghi now only sees an ample degree of stimulus as necessary
  2. We postpone the first hike to December

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — ECB tapers, but with dovish strings attached

    ECB tapers as expectedIn the press release accompanying the monetary policy decision, the ECB announced that it will lower its monthly QE purchases to EUR 30bn from January 2018. It will run until at least September 2018. This was pretty much in line with expectations, as was the fact that the ECB kept its options open for increasing the purchase programme (APP) in size or duration, if the outlook becomes less favorable or if financial conditions worsen.

    Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

EMU Comment — PMI decline should not hinder ECB tapering plans

  1. PMI declines more than expected
  2. Another positive French PMI
  3. Should shore up ECB tapering plans

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |

Global macro forecast — Tailwinds now, but autumn storms are coming

• The end of the recovery, into the boom
• Tricky reorientation of monetary policy
• Global slowdown in 2019

Ann Öberg, Head of Economic Research |

EMU Comment — PMI surprises on the upside in September

  1. PMI regained the lost territory
  2. Both German and French business confidence surprised strongly on the upside
  3. Supports ECB’s plans of removing stimulus

Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, Senior Economist |